Overcapacity of the Chinese Automotive Industry: Reorganization Becoming Urgent Issue

 

Due to overcapacities, some local automakers, which face mounting business difficulties, are bought by Sino-foreign joint ventures.
In March 2015, Changan Ford announced that it purchased Hafei Motor's manufacturing facility in Heilongjiang province, leaving the Chinese automaker only with one plant in Shandong province. Annual production capacity of the acquired plant is 200,000 units. Changan Ford intends to keep the existing production line, which was used for the manufacturing of Changan Automobile's Alsvin V3, and install a new production line as well for Ford brand models.

Although the purchase of local automakers by Sino-foreign manufacturers is one way of dealing with overcapacity, it could also cause the rapid decline of Chinese automakers. Therefore, the central government cannot actively promote such trend in the automotive industry.

For this reason, in order to resolve the issue of overcapacity, Chinese automakers should engage in reorganization and consolidation.
In
China, there are dozens of local automakers which were set up by regional governments in an effort to develop the local economy; however, many of them suffer from low operating ratio. Medium and small automakers should be absorbed by SAIC, Changan, Dongfeng and other major Chinese manufacturers in order to eliminate overcapacity. In the long term, product appeal of large Chinese automakers must be improved to adequately address overcapacity. Instead of forceful reorganization directed by the central government, R&D support would be necessary to boost product power.

Regarding the Chinese automotive market, low growth is projected to continue in the coming years. Therefore, if Chinese automakers cannot tackle overcapacity early on, they will fall even further behind Sino-foreign manufacturers.

 

15-16-9  

 

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The Smart Fortwo is mainly sold in two countries

 

The Smart Fortwo launched in 1998 experienced a first redesign in early 2007 and its second redesign late 2014. Since its beginnings, we have found that this model is sold mainly in Germany (home of Daimler that owns Smart) with a peak of 33 000 sales in 2008 and in Italy (European homeland for small A segment cars) with a peak of 33 000 sales in 2008.

The launch of the Fortwo in the US in 2008 has created a new trend (25 000 sales that year) that was quickly dispelled. Today, the Fortwo is selling at half the peak reached in 2008 (12 500 sales).

France ranks fifth in terms of Fortwo sales. It is possible that the development of alternative transportation has slowed its spread in the Paris region, Fortwo's main sales region of France.

It should be noted that the Fortwo is intended primarily for urban areas, while it sells very little in peri-urban areas. In the US for example, the Fortwo's is mostly sold in major cities on the East Coast, like New York.

In Germany, the significant number of large cities has encouraged the spread of the Fortwo in the country.

In China finally sales of the Fortwo will reach 15 000 units in 2015, while sales in previous years were marginal. China has gradually become the third country in terms of sales of the Fortwo, behind Germany and Italy and ahead of the United States and France.

 

15-16-8  

 

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World Sales Volume of Tata Motors Declines 9.4 Percent to 970,000 units

 

Tata Motors' global automobile sales volume stood at 969,504 units in 2014 (including Jaguar Land Rover or JLR), down 9.4 percent year-on-year. Looking at global sales results of 2014, JLR went up 8.8 percent to 4463,000 units. Although Jaguar dropped 1.3 percent to 78.000 units due to its pullout from the European (except the UK) and North American markets, Land Rover increased 11.1 percent to 385,000 units thanks to solid performance in China (up 30 percent) and other major markets. In the first two months of 2015, JLR declined 3.3 percent as a result of poor sales in China. However, volume in China is expected to pick up once the local model lineup of automaker's new joint venture with Chery Automobile expands.

As for Tata Motors' global sales volume, passenger vehicles declined 11.9 percent to 131,000 units, while commercial vehicles dropped 24,3 percent to 376,000 units. In India, which accounts for over 90 percent of Tata Motors' overall sales, volume fell 23.9 percent to 444,000 units and market share dropped 4.0pp to 14.0 percent.

The automaker is aiming for recovery by stepping up product launches and expanding its sales network. Tata Motors plans to launch two new passenger vehicle models annually until 2020. The Zest compact sedan was launched in August 2014, becoming the automaker's first new model after four years. In January 2015, the Bolt hatchback was released.

Following the release of the Zest and Bolt, Tata Motors' passenger vehicle sales volume has been increasing double digits since November 2014. A third model codenamed Kite (successor model of the Indica) is planned to be added in 2015. In addition, market share recovery is aimed to be achieved by doubling the number of sales shops in India to 1,000 by 2020.

 

15-16-6  

 

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Overcapacity of the Chinese Automotive Industry: Factory Operating Rate Drops Below 60% in 2014

 

Overcapacity in China's automotive industry began to significantly increase in 2011. By the end of 2014, excess capacity stood at 16.06 million units, operating ratio dropping below 60 percent for the first time in six years. Operating ratio differs from maker to maker, European, US and Korean automakers are operating at over 90 percent capacity while Japanese at 78.8 percent.
In contrast, Chinese manufacturers' operating ratio was a mere at 43.5 percent in 2014, putting pressure on business performance.


Chinese automakers' overcapacity problem is deeply tied to stagnating sales. Chinese consumers prefer large automobiles, while the core products of Chinese automakers are A (mini) and B (small) segment models whose market decreased 5.5 percent to 2.14 million units in 2014.


In addition, the introduction of China 4 emission standard on diesel vehicles negatively impacted the commercial vehicle market, driving down sales of Chinese automakers. Also, registration restriction of new vehicles introduced by Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other large cities increases ownership cost, turning away consumers in these cities from Chinese automobiles and channeling them toward high-quality foreign products. Moreover, foreign brands quickly reacted to stagnating sales by reducing prices, making an effort to control sales decline. Chinese automakers haphazard facility investment was another reason for ballooning overcapacity. Triggered by an over 30 percent annual increase in automobile production for two consecutive years in 2009 and 2010, local automakers built new plants without stopping for the next five years.

 

15-16-9  

 

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Inovev expects an production of 50 000 BMW 7 Series per year

 

The market for segment F vehicles represented 600 000 global sales in 2014, including 300 000 sedans and almost as many SUV, the rest being coupes and convertibles. The main sedans available in this segment are the Mercedes S-Class (80 000 units produced in 2014), BMW 7 Series (42 000 units in 2014), Audi A8 (30 000 units in 2014), Jaguar XJ (20 000 units in 2014 ) and Lexus LS (17 000 units in 2014). In Europe, the first four models mentioned above are the bestselling models, while in the USA and China, the Lexus LS is one of the best selling models. In the USA, the equivalent models from Cadillac and Lincoln have gradually disappeared, but Cadillac will return in this segment with the upcoming launch of the CT6 that will try to shake hierarchy in its home market and in China.


It is in this context that BMW introduced the sixth generation of the 7 Series. Built like all 7 Series on the site of Dingolfing(Germany), the new 7 Series will attempt to compete with the Mercedes S-Class which was sold at nearly 80 000 units per year. Previous 7 Series only reached 50 000 units sold per year on average. Inovev expects for the new generation amounts equivalent to the previous one, i.e. 50 000 annual sales.


The new 7 Series is distinguished by a weight loss of almost 130kg compared to the previous generation, with a mixed composition of carbon fibre reinforced plastic, aluminium and high-tensile steel. It will again be available in two lengths (5.10 m and 5.24 m, i.e. 2.5 cm more than the previous generation).


The new model will be equipped initially with a six-cylinder petrol engine 3.0-liter turbo developing 320hp (740i), an eight-cylinder petrol 4.4-liter bi turbo 445hp (750i) and a four-cylinder engine 2.0 litter turbo coupled to an electric motor developing 326hp (740i), the latter being a plug in rechargeable version that will be marketed in the first half of 2016.

 

15-16-7  

 

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