The Tesla Model Y leads the German BEV market over 9 months 2023
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The Tesla Model Y leads the German BEV market over 9 months 2023
-Germany bought 383,988 battery electric vehicles (BEV) over the first 9 months of 2023, compared to 270,130 units over the first 9 months of 2022, which represents an increase of 42% over the period, but remains at a relatively low market share (BEV = 18% of the German market over the first 9 months of 2023).
-The best-selling model in this category is the Tesla Model Y which almost doubles its sales year on year, helped by its local production near Berlin. This model sold at 38,608 units over the first 9 months of 2023, is well ahead of the VW ID3 (17,995 units), Fiat 500e (16,117 units), VW ID4 (14,677 units) and VW ID5 (14 676 units). However, these five models only represent 27% of all BEV sales in Germany over the first 9 months of 2023, which means that this market is extremely fragmented.
-We note that the Fiat 500e is included in the middle of the best sold models on German territory, which means that Volkswagen is currently missing a small electric model under the ID3 and ID4, this one being planned for 2025. This will be the ID2. We also note the absence in the top 20 BEVs of models from the French brands Renault, Peugeot and Citroën. Only the Dacia Spring represents the French automobile industry thanks to its low price which attracts a small segment of German customers.
-By brand, the German BEV market is dominated by Volkswagen (14% of the BEV market) and Tesla (13% of the BEV market) which are well ahead of Premium carmakers as Mercedes, BMW and Audi (between 6% and 7% each). The Chinese MG is making a spectacular entry in 2023, already occupying 3% of the German BEV market.
NIO will sell nearly 150,000 BEVs in the world in 2023
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NIO will sell nearly 150,000 BEVs in the world in 2023
- Among the many Chinese brands created these recent years, most have focused on the production of battery electric vehicles (BEV), such as Aion (GAC), Arcfox (BAIC), Avatr (Changan), BYD,
Geometry (Geely), IM Motors (SAIC), Maple (Geely), Neta (Hozon), NIO, ORA (Great Wall), Polestar (Geely), Rising (SAIC), Skywell (Skyworth), X-Peng or Zeekr (Geely).
The 14 brands mentioned above represent 22% of BEV sales in China over the first eight months of 2023 (785,703 units out of 3,606,680 BEV).
- Other recent Chinese brands have focused on both the production of battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehiles, such as Denza (BYD), Leapmotor (Leapmotor), Li Auto (Li Auto), Lynk & Co (Geely), Seres (Seres), Voyah (Dongfeng) or WEY (Great Wall). The market share of these 7 recent brands, however, still remains very low (2% of the BEV market and 7% of the PHEV market).
- Among the recent Chinese BEV brands, Aion from the GAC group is making a spectacular breakthrough on the Chinese market in 2023 (300,000 sales over the first eight months of 2023), even if it remains very far from BYD (1,700,000 sales over the same period). NIO is currently three times smaller (100,000 sales over the same period) but announces a vast expansion plan in China and internationally. NIO hopes to sell 150,000 BEVs worldwide throughout 2023 and double this figure next year. With its current range of 7 different models which could expand further, NIO wants to compete with BYD on the Chinese market and internationally.
Will European carmakers still be in China in 2030?
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Will European carmakers still be in China in 2030?
- Given that the market share of foreign carmakers is decreasing from year to year in China (45% in 2023 compared to 49% in 2022, 55% in 2021, 60% in 2020, 61% in 2019), we can wonder about the future of European carmakers in China by 2030.
- First, we must identify the share of European carmakers among foreign carmakers. It is 40% in 2023, which represents 19% of the entire Chinese market compared to 25% in 2019. This is the largest share among foreign carmakers as Japanese carmakers are at 15% of the Chinese market in 2023 (compared to 22% in 2019), Americans at 9% (compared to 9% in 2019 – stable thanks to the progress of Tesla) and Koreans at 2% (compared to 5% in 2019).
- European carmakers are therefore still the most represented among foreign carmakers in China. And among the European carmakers present in China, almost all are German, which benefit from a Premium brand image in this market.
- According to Inovev, non-German European carmakers and Korean carmakers are the most exposed, as their very small market share continues to shrink. At the same time, German and Japanese carmakers, as well as Americans other than Tesla, will continue to decline. But it is likely that there will still be foreign carmakers in China in 2030, particularly German ones. However, European carmakers who only represent 8% of BEV sales in 2023 (compared to 17% for Tesla) must make a big effort to increase this market share, because the evolution of the Chinese market will necessarily involve a increasingly proportion of BEVs (23% in 2023 and soon 30% then 40%).
- For comparison, on the European market, non-European carmakers represents 33% of the sales when by opposition non-American carmakers have 67% of the US market. China could therefore get closer to the European scenario before 2030.
Chinese carmakers represent 72% of the Chinese BEV market in 2023
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Chinese carmakers represent 72% of the Chinese BEV market in 2023
- Over the cumulative first eight months of 2023, the Chinese passenger car market represented 15,640,859 units, compared to 14,647,334 units over the same period of 2022, meaning an of 6.8% of sales.
- Of this volume recorded over the period, the market share of Chinese carmakers excluding JVs (8,651,546 units) slightly exceeded 55%. It is to be noted that by including utility vehicles, this market share is even higher, as it reaches 62%.
- If we focus on the Chinese passenger car market only, the number of battery electric vehicles (BEV) reached 3,606,680 units over the first eight months of 2023, which represents 23% of the Chinese market, including 72% for the Chinese carmakers excluding J.V. (2,603,831 units). For the plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) market, the volume reached 1,513,333 units, which represents 10% of the Chinese market including 95% of market share for Chinese carmakers excluding J.V. (1,443,578 units).
- If we add BEVs and PHEVs, 5,120,013 plug-in passenger cars were sold in China during the first eight months of 2023, representing 33% of the Chinese market, including a market share of 79% for the Chinese carmakers excluding JVs (4 047,409 units).
- The market share of BEVs, PHEVs, and the market share of Chinese carmakers, including within BEVs and PHEVs markets, are constantly increasing from month to month. Given that Tesla accounts for 17% of BEV sales in China in 2023, the share of Europeans, Japanese, Koreans and Americans others than Tesla only accounts for 11% in total, which is extremely low.
Renault and Nissan confirm the end of the Renault-Nissan group
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Renault and Nissan confirm the end of the Renault-Nissan group
- As planned at the beginning of this year, the Renault-Nissan group sees its existence officially cease, with the sale of 30% of the 45% of Nissan's shares held by Renault, with the end of their common purchasing structure and with the desire to stick only to one-off agreements on model, engine or plant share.
- Today, the rebalancing of the Renault and Nissan cross-shareholdings, up to 15% each, means that neither one carmaker has the possibility of controlling the other in the current circumstances. As a result, we can no longer speak of a group, but of two separated groups which can agree on a technical cooperation concerning one-off projects, such as Renault has with Mercedes (with the Kangoo-Citan ) or with Geely (in South Korea).
- The Renault-Nissan group therefore ended up experiencing the same fate as the former DaimlerChrysler or BMW-Rover groups which disappeared at the beginning of the 2000s. We are therefore now dealing with two distinct groups: the Renault group which is made up of the Renault brands, Dacia and Alpine, and the Nissan group which consists of the Nissan, Infiniti and Mitsubishi brands.
- Contrary to what had been defined over the previous twenty years, notably due to a position as CEO of Renault and Nissan occupied by the same man who was supposed to define strategies for the common interest and thus pool purchases, mutualise vehicle ranges, factories, technologies, each company will now build its own plan and then see opportunities for collaboration. The Renault and Nissan groups have, however, announced that the current agreements on LCVs and BEVs will not be questioned.