GM's impossible return to the European market
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GM's impossible return to the European market
- The GM group was in its time the largest global carmaker until the early 2000s. It remained the leading American carmaker (the largest of the “Big Three”) but had to give up on the European market towards the end of the 2010s, when its Opel/Vauxhall subsidiary purchased in 1929 was sold to the French group PSA in 2017. The Chrysler group (the smallest of the “Big Three”) had already proceeded in the same way with the sale to PSA of its European subsidiaries since 1978, to then relaunch the brand Talbot in 1979.
- After 2017, the GM group maintained a symbolic presence in Europe with the Chevrolet Camaro and Corvette sports models, but at a confidential volume (200 sales per year).
- In 2023, the management of the GM group plans to return to Europe with completely new products. The old Chevrolets that came from Korea in the early 2000s did not leave good memories, GM management is now banking on Cadillac for its new offensive on the European market.
- Two factors played in favor of this decision: on one side, the perspective of a zero emission European market in 2035 and on the other side, the development of new American brands in Europe, such as Fisker, Lucid, Rivianand Tesla, which alone will capture a market share of nearly 3% in 2023. The GM group believes that its new battery electric models, and in particular those of the Cadillac brand, could find their customers in Europe thanks to their Premium image. However, the challenge seems extremely difficult because the Cadillac brand still has an outdated image in Europe.
Germany ends BEV subsidies
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Germany ends BEV subsidies
- Germany has decided to end subsidies for BEVs without notice from Monday December 19, 2023. The German government is forced to make significant savings (of the order of 60 billion euros) due to a severe budgetary crisis, declared that these subsidies which had cost some 10 billion euros since 2016 (date of the first subsidies concerning BEVs) were stopped a year before the planned date, these subsidies having to apply initially until the end of the year 2024. Subsidies already requested will be paid, but no new applications will be accepted from Monday December 19, 2023. It should be noted that the maximum subsidy in Germany is 4,500 Euros. It is this subsidy that will disappear. For the record, the subsidy in France is 5,000 to 7,000 euros, the 7,000 euros being reserved for the most modest families.
- These subsidies were introduced to accelerate the “zero emissions” transition in the country. And BEV sales in Germany have actually increased significantly since 2016, helped by subsidies, going from 11,410 units that year to 25,056 in 2017, 36,216 in 2018, 63,491 in 2019, then 194,474 in 2020 (following the launch of the Volkswagen ID3 and ID4), 356,425 in 2021 and 471,394 in 2022. In 2023, Inovev estimates the number of BEV sales in Germany at 500,000 (465,750 units over 11 months). In total, almost 1.7 million BEVs benefited from subsidies in Germany between 2016 and 2023.
- Will the end of subsidies affect BEV sales in Germany? Not necessarily. Most of the carmakers have already announced that they will be responsible themselvesfor providing this subsidy to customers for a certain period of time. After a few months or even a year of agitation, BEV sales could resume their normal pace without any subsidies or bonuses paid by carmakers. At the same time, the offer of cheaper BEVs is expected to increase.
Daimler Trucks has regained its position as the truck leader in Europe
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Daimler Trucks has regained its position as the truck leader in Europe
- Inovev estimated the production volume of heavy utility vehicles over 3.5 tonnes in Europe (excluding off-road vehicles and buses/coaches) to 472,606 units in 2022, compared to 447,853 in 2021 and 359,827 in 2020, a year marked by the Covid-19 crisis.
- The 2022 volume is still far from the figures reached in 2017, 2018, 2019 where the production volume was slightly higher than 500,000 units per year, but the trend for 2023 means that we will gradually approach these record volumes. The transport of goods remains very dynamic today in Europe and the new pollution standards do not augur a future collapse in production. It should be noted that exports of heavy utility vehicles outside Europe remain low, because each major market is supplied mainly by local production.
- Heavy utility vehicle production in Europe (including the United Kingdom but excluding Turkey) is very concentrated since it is represented by only eight brands (including a very marginal brand: Tatra) compared to 13 brands in the United States.
- By brand, Mercedes UV (belonging to the Daimler Trucks group) regained its leading position in Europe in 2022, ahead of Iveco, Scania, DAF, MAN, Volvo and Renault Trucks.
- These eight brands are integrated into six groups, the largest of which being the Volkswagen group (through the Traton company), owner of Scania and MAN (142,072 vehicles produced in 2022) followed by Volvo Trucks, owner of Volvo and Renault Trucks (94,581 vehicles produced in 2022). Daimler Trucks is only in third position (83,234 vehicles produced in 2022) ahead of DAF (68,761 vehicles).
Volkswagen's difficulties in the electric market
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Volkswagen's difficulties in the electric market
- The Volkswagen brand, leader of the automotive market in Europe for years, indicated when it launched battery electric vehicles, ID3 and ID4 in 2020, that it objective is to quickly become the first brand of BEVs in Europe. The ID3 model was to be, in a way, the Golf of the future and the ID4 model the Tiguan of the future.
- However, in 2023, three years after the launch of the ID3 and ID4, the Volkswagen brand is only in second position in Europe in terms of BEV sales, with 10% market share (compared to 10.5% for all engines combined) behind Tesla which occupies 18% market share of BEV sales in Europe. And the gap with sales of its thermal models is increasing (see graph).
- Even more, sales by models disappoint. Over the first 11 months of 2023, the ID3 (56,650 sales) are sold less than an MG 4 (62,552 sales) or an Audi Q4 E-Tron (61,944 sales). A Fiat 500e sells even more (56,856 sales). An ID4 (72,133 sales) sells better than an ID3, but much less than a Tesla Model Y (219,637 sales) or even a Tesla Model 3 (83,823 sales). We are far from the 100,000 annual sales of Volkswagen ID3 and 100,000 annual sales of Volkswagen ID4, the carmaker's initial objective. Especially since sales of ID3 and ID4 are also disappointing in China and the United States.
- Compared to the Golf and Tiguan with combustion engines, the ID3 today represents 36% of Golf sales and the ID4 48% of Tiguan sales. In addition, we are seeing a very slow start for the ID7 sedan (1,000 sales in November 2023). As for the ID5, it achieved 24,696 sales over the first 11 months of 2023. The design and price of Volkswagen’s BEVs seem to be their weak points.
Freightliner confirms its leading position in heavy utility vehicles in the USA
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Freightliner confirms its leading position in heavy utility vehicles in the USA
- The US heavy utility vehicle market reached 460,000 vehicles in the first 11 months of 2023, which augurs a market of 500,000 vehicles for the whole year. This volume is one of the best of the decade, as 476,000 units were recorded in 2022, 462,000 in 2021 and 410,000 in 2020. Volumes from 2014 to 2018 oscillated between 400,000 and 490,000 sales. Only the year 2019 exceeded 500,000 sales, with a volume of 527,000 units, a record figure for the period 2013-2023.
- The US heavy utility vehicle market is divided into 13 different brands integrated into 10 groups, making it a very concentrated market. The sales leader remains the Freightliner brand, which belongs to the German group Daimler Trucks, with 136,448 sales over 11 months 2023, representing 30% of the US heavy-duty truck market. In second position, but well behind, the International brand which belongs to the German Volkswagen group sold 66,218 HUV, representing 14% of the market.
- Ford is third, with 64,253 sales, representing 14% of the market, ahead of the Paccar group's Peterbilt and Kenworth brands, which each occupy 9% of the US heavy-duty market, or 18% for the Paccar group as a whole.
- In sixth position, Volvo Trucks occupies 6% of the market. Its subsidiary Mack Trucks occupies 4% of the market, which totals 10% of the market for the Volvo Trucks group. Two Japanese carmakers are included in this ranking, Isuzu and Hino, representing 5% of the US market. The Chrysler group still occupies 4% of the US heavy-duty market. The GM group now represents only 3% of the US heavy-duty truck market. Tesla is starting out in this heavy-duty market, with 180 units sold over 11 months of 2023.