After a 2.4% increase in 2024, the US market should be stable in 2025
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After a 2.4% increase in 2024, the US market should be stable in 2025
- The US market:
• The passenger car and pickup market grew by 2.4% in 2024 compared to 2023, to 15,954,040 sales. Of this total, pickups represent 2,895,887 units in 2024, or 18.2% of the US market last year, compared to 2,858,985 units in 2023, or an almost identical market share of 18.3%.
• The GM group keeps its first place in the US market in 2024, with a 17% market share (2.7 million vehicles; +4.4%) ahead of the Toyota groups (15% market share; 2.3 million vehicles; +3.7%) and Ford (13% market share; 2 million vehicles; +2.7%). Next come the Hyundai-Kia groups (11% market share) and Honda (9% market share). The Stellantis group, represented at 99% of US sales by the former Chrysler group (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram), falls from fifth to sixth place behind Hyundai-Kia and Honda, with 8% market share (1.3 million vehicles; -15.0%).
• BEV sales increased by 5% to just over 1.25 million units, in a market dominated by Tesla, which has almost 50% of this market share, but nevertheless down 8% compared to 2023. Tesla occupies 4% of the US market in 2024, a situation that is almost stable compared to 2023.
• For 2025, Inovev forecasts a stagnation of the market, which would correspond to a transitional period before a possible rebound for the following years, due to a policy that could once again favour thermal vehicles.
- Production:
• Production in the US of passenger cars and pickups is up 6% in 2024 compared to 2023 to 10.8 million units. It is mainly driven by the pick-up category (+9% to 2.7 million units) and SUVs (+9% to 6.1 million units), while sedans are down 6% to 1.7 million units.
• For 2025, American production should continue to grow. The American strategy for several years now has been to localise production on its soil for its own market. Mechanisms such as the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) have been put in place and others could emerge with the new administration. The effects of this policy should therefore continue and see the volume of imports gradually reduced in favour of local production in the USA.
After a 3.2% drop in 2024, the French market should experience a small growth in 2025
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After a 3.2% drop in 2024, the French market should experience a small growth in 2025
- French market:
• The French passenger car market represented 1,718,449 passenger cars (PC) in 2024 (official 12-month figures) compared to 1,774,772 in 2023, down 3.2%. The Stellantis and Renault groups occupy half of the market in equal shares.
• BEV sales fell by 6% in 2024 compared to 2023 (291,143 sales compared to 298,525 in 2023), which can be attributed to several factors: an overall drop in demand in France, the end of the first wave of "early adopter" buyers, the expectation of the launch of more affordable vehicles (Renault 5/4, Citroën e-C3, Fiat Panda, etc.) and to a lesser extent the reduction in subsidies from December 2. The share of BEVs in the passenger car market has nevertheless remained stable (16.9%)
• For 2025, the French market is expected to grow modestly, to around 1.75 million passenger cars (+1.8%).Demand is expected to be driven by the cyclical renewal of old cars or end of leasing period for professional buyers and by the development of new, more accessible models, particularly with electric engines. However, both political and economic uncertainty (especially for professional buyers) could slow down the expected growth.
- Production:
• France's production volume is expected to reach just under 850,000 passenger cars in 2024 (latest estimates calculated from the first 11 months), compared to 866,614 in 2023, which represents a decrease of 2%. The difference can be attributed to the lower volumes of models awaiting renewal, in particular the Peugeot 5008, Citroën C5 Aircross, Opel Mokka, or which are not meeting with the expected success such as the Peugeot 308, Renault Mégane BEV and Renault Scénic BEV. For BEVs, a little less than 130,000 passenger vehicles were produced in France according to Inovev's estimates.
• For 2025, Inovev forecasts 983,399 passenger cars produced in France, representing a 15% increasefrom one year to the next. This increase in production is mainly explained by the ramp-up of the Renault 5 BEV, Renault Scénic BEV, Renault 4 BEV, Peugeot 3008 and Peugeot 5008. The volume increase of the models mentioned will mechanically contribute to an increase in BEV production in France in 2025.
The Toyota Yaris Cross remains the most produced car in France in 2024
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The Toyota Yaris Cross remains the most produced car in France in 2024
- The Toyota Yaris Cross SUV remains, as in 2023, the most produced passenger car in France in 2024, with 206,679 units assembled last year at the Onnaing site, compared to 200,025 in 2023 (+3.3%), 98% of which are equipped with full-hybrid engines. The Toyota Yaris Cross achieves its best sales in Italy (20% of Yaris Cross sales), France (17.6%), Germany (17.3%) and England (11%). This model is well ahead of the Peugeot 3008 (127,017 units in 2024 compared to 111,415 in 2023; +14%) and Peugeot 308 (92,962 units compared to 100,361; -7.3%), produced respectively at the Sochaux and Mulhouse sites.
- Fourth place in the ranking of the most produced passenger cars in France in 2024 is occupied by the Toyota Yaris sedan (a different model from the Toyota Yaris Cross), of which 72,934 units left the assembly lines of the Onnaing site last year, compared to 73,763 in 2023 (-1.1%). 98% were equipped with the full-hybrid engine. The majority of Toyota Yaris sold in Europe is produced at the Czech site in Kolin.
- The Onnaing plant remains the assembly plant located in France that produced the most vehicles in 2024 (279,613 units compared to 273,788 in 2023; +2%), well ahead of the sites of Sochaux (174,618 units compared to 174,654 in 2023), Maubeuge (159,724 units compared to 123,149 in 2023; +29.7%), Hordain (154,694 units compared to 148,669 in 2023; +4%), Sandouville (149,700 units compared to 131,426 in 2023; +14%), Mulhouse (147,564 units compared to 184,590 in 2023; -20%) and Batilly (146,311 units compared to 150,257 in 2023; -2.6%). Among these production sites, several are specialized in the assembly of light utility vehicles, such as Maubeuge, Hordain, Sandouville or Batilly, because France is the European country that produces the most light utility vehicles.
In Germany, after a 1% drop in the market and a 1.7% drop in production, there is a high level of uncertainty for 2025
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In Germany, after a 1% drop in the market and a 1.7% drop in production, there is a high level of uncertainty for 2025
- German market:
• According to official 12-month figures, 2,817,331 passenger cars (PC) were registered in 2024 compared to 2,844,609 in 2023, a decrease of 1%.
• The Volkswagen group remains largely in the lead (40% market share) and even consolidates its lead compared to the previous year, over Stellantis (12% of the market), Mercedes (10% of the market) and BMW (9% of the market).
• BEV sales fell by 27.4% in 2024 compared to 2023 (380,609 sales compared to 524,219 in 2023), due in particular to the end of subsidies. The share of BEVs in Germany thus fell to 13.5% in 2024 compared to 18.5% in 2023.
• Forecast for 2025: at the time of writing this analysis, there is great uncertainty due to the elections at the end of February (21/2). A debate will take place on whether or not to return subsidies (perhaps via the European Union). In the event of a non-resumption of subsidies, Inovev predicts a 1% drop in the entire market.
- Production:
• In 2024, Germany's production volume reached 4,109,100 passenger cars (official 12-month figures), compared to 4,178,113 in 2023, which represents a drop of 1.7%. The transfer of the VW Passat to Slovakia and the discontinuation of the Ford Fiesta had an impact on production in Germany.
• The decline of the German BEV market has also had a direct impact on the production volume of these cars in Germany. Indeed, the majority of electric cars sold in Germany are produced locally (Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW). According to the Inovev estimates, around 1 million BEVs were produced in 2024.
• The volume of cars produced and sold in Germany fell by 6% overall to 935,600 units. On the other hand, the volume of German car exports continued to increase in 2024, by around 2% to 3,173,500 units.
• Forecast for 2025: The situation should be stable compared to 2024. In the event of no resumption of subsidies, production for the German market should be almost identical to 2024.For exports, there is also a great uncertainty, particularly related to the US policy towards imported vehicles.
Volvo increases global sales by 8% in 2024
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Volvo increases global sales by 8% in 2024
- The Swedish carmaker Volvo Car (a subsidiary of the Chinese group Geely) broke its sales record in 2024, with 763,389 vehicles sold worldwide, compared to nearly 707,000 units in 2023 and 615,000 in 2022, which represents an increase of 8% compared to 2023 and 24% compared to 2022.
- It was in 2010 that the Geely group took over Volvo Car from the American Ford. Volvo Car saw its global sales increase from 400,000 units in 2010 to 763,000 in 2024, representing a near doubling of sales in fourteen years.
- Volvo sold 175,194 BEVs last year (23% of sales) and 177,593 PHEVs (23% of sales), which represents 46% of all its sales in 2024. Remember that Volvo now wants to sell 90% of BEVs and PHEVs worldwide in 2030, and no longer 100% of BEVs.
- The best-selling model is the D-segment XC60 SUV (230,853 units compared to 228,646), followed by the C-segment XC40/EX40 SUVs (173,890 units compared to 200,670) and the E-segment XC90 SUV (108,621 units compared to 107,549). These three SUVs represent 513,364 units, or 67% of Volvo's sales. The new B-segment EX30 SUV is quite a success, with 89,519 units already sold last year (including nearly 77,000 in Europe, or 86% of its production in China).
- Volvo sedans represent the smallest share of the brand's sales (18.5% of the total) with 83,276 S60/V60 and 57,150 S90/V90 sold in 2024. The rest corresponds to the C40/EC40 and EX90 SUVs.