2025 will be a crucial year for the Stellantis group
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2025 will be a crucial year for the Stellantis group
- Formed from the merger of the PSA group (Peugeot-Citroën) and the FCA group (Fiat-Chrysler), the Stellantis group, created in 2021, just after the Covid crisis, has never been able to reach the cumulative sales and production levels of the years 2010-2019 when the PSA and FCA groups were independent. While the PSA+FCA group had reached all together 8 million vehicles per year in 2018 and 2019, the volumes reached after these two years fell to 6 million vehicles on average (6.15 million in 2020, 6.38 million in 2021, 5.70 million in 2022 and 5.97 million in 2023). The results for 2024 are not yet known, but it is likely to being even lower.
- When we compare Stellantis' volumes to those of the world's top three carmakers (Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai-Kia), we see that Toyota has largely exceeded its pre-Covid levels and that Volkswagen and Hyundai-Kia have lost less volume than Stellantis. Stellantis has just done better than GM, which collapsed, going from 10 million vehicles produced and sold in 2016 to 6 million in 2023, with the sale of Opel/Vauxhall to PSA in 2017 only partly explaining this collapse.
- The decline in Stellantis' volume is the consequence of the strategic choice to prioritize the search for high margins to the detriment of volumes, coupled with a policy of standardizing platforms and engines within the entire Stellantis range. It has generated significant overcapacity in Stellantis factories, especially since the carmaker's management had refused to close any factories.
- The year 2025 will be crucial. A strong recovery is indeed unlikely. Choices will have to be made, particularly regarding the closure of factory(ies).
Tesla declines in its three major global markets over 9 months 2024
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Tesla declines in its three major global markets over 9 months 2024
- The Californian carmaker of battery electric vehicles Tesla is in decline in 2024 in its three major global markets: China, the United States and Europe, at least over the first 9 months.
- Official results provided by local statistics agencies show a 3.3% drop in Tesla sales in China (675,758 sales in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 699,056 in the first 9 months of 2023), a 13.1% drop in the United States (446,200 sales in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 513,369 in the first 9 months of 2023) and a 8.6% drop in Europe 30 countries –EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway–(249,337 sales in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 272,788 in the first 9 months of 2023).
- Combining these three major markets, there were 1,371,295 sales in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 1,485,213 in the first 9 months of 2023, which represents a decrease of 7.7% in percentage and 113,918 units in volume.
- On the other hand, Tesla's direct competitor, BYD, increased its sales by 32.0% in the first 9 months of 2024, but it was mainly its plug-in hybrid vehicles that saw their sales increase (1,436,811 PHEVs sold out of 2,732,901 BYDs sold over the period).
- Over the first 9 months of 2024, Tesla therefore remains the world's leading carmaker of battery electric vehicles, with 1,469,383 BEVs produced,ahead of BYD, which did not exceed 1,296,090 BEVs produced over the period. But it is true that the gap is narrowing between the two BEV makers.
The Mercedes CLA, GLA and EQA have grabbed market share of the A-Class
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The Mercedes CLA, GLA and EQA have grabbed market share of the A-Class
- The Mercedes A-Class has had two very distinct eras, the first running from 1997 to 2012 when the A-Class was a small B-segment MPV that had mixed success, and the second running from 2012 to 2025 when the A-Class had become a C-segment sedan competing with the Audi A3 or BMW 1 Series.
- This new generation of the A-Class was very successful, going from 100,000 units in 2012 to 250,000 in 2019, the peak of production of this model in Europe (it was then the second generation of the A-Class sedan launched in 2018). Since 2019, that is, since the launch of the second generation of the CLA (three-box version of the A-Class), the A-Class has continued to decline, going from 250,000 units in 2019 to 216,000 in 2020, 174,000 in 2021, 146,000 in 2022 and 126,000 in 2023. During this same period, the CLA saw its production volume increase to 91,000 units in 2023.
- To complicate the situation of the A-Class, the launch in 2019 of the second generation of the GLA SUV (derived from the A-Class) and its battery electric version EQA in 2021 will bite into the sales of the A-Class. To summarize, we can say that the A-Class has been competed from 2019 both by its CLA three-box version, by its GLA SUV version and by its battery electric EQA SUV version.
- It is interesting to note that the cumulative production in Europe of these four models has only decreased since 2019, going from 450,000 units in 2019 to 372,000 in 2020 and 370,000 in 2023. Mercedes plans to end the A-Class in 2025.
Audi creates a new brand in China
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Audi creates a new brand in China
- Audi was one of the first premium carmakers to export its cars to China and then to produce them locally, from the beginning of the 1990s. The German brand with the four rings was helped in this by its owner Volkswagen, which had also established itself in China in the early 1990s. Audi quickly became the most widespread premium brand in China and even gained entry into the country's senior administrations and other ministries.
- Audi's production volume grew steadily until 2014, reaching 645,000 vehicles assembled that year. Increasingly competing with BMW and Mercedes, Audi began to see its production fluctuates between 2015 and 2023, from 625,000 to 725,000 units per year. In 2024, its production volume will be closer to 600,000 units (according to Inovev estimates), the lowest figure recorded since2014.
- To revive its sales on the Chinese market, Audi has chosen to create a new battery electric brand called AUDI (in capital letters) freed from its four rings and with a car exterior design totally different from current Audis. Presented as a world premiere at the Guangzhou Motor Show in November 2024, the first AUDI E concept comes under the form of a 4.87 m long profiled SUV that places the vehicle in the E segment.
- The model, designed in collaboration with the Chinese carmaker SAIC (owner of the MG, Roewe, Maxus brands), is equipped with two electric motors with a total power of 570 kW and a 100 kWh battery allowing a range of 700 km according to the CLTC cycle. This model announces a whole range of new battery electric vehicles from the new AUDI brand.
The BMW X1 now largely overtakes the 1 Series
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The BMW X1 now largely overtakes the 1 Series
- Launched in 2004 and renewed several times, the BMW 1 Series is a C-segment premium sedan competing with the Mercedes A-Class and Audi A3. The first-generation X1 SUV derived from it was launched in 2009. The first X1 SUV didn’t overtake the 1 Series sedan in terms of sales, which was however achieved with the generation of the X1 that appeared in 2015.
- While in 2016, the production volume of the X1 and 1 Series was practically identical (180,000 units for each model), the following years saw the gap between the production of the two models increase, in favour of the X1 SUV. From 0 units in 2016, this gap increased to 20,000 in 2017, 30,000 in 2018, 48,000 in 2019, 74,000 in 2021 and 114,000 in 2023. The production volume of the X1 reached 220,000 units in 2023, compared to 180,000 in 2021 and 2016.
- At the same time, the production volume of the 1 Series sedan collapsed: from 180,000 units in 2016, 172,000 in 2017, 155,000 in 2018, 131,000 in 2019, 124,000 in 2020, 104,000 in 2021, 81,000 in 2022. The year 2023 marks a slight progress (106,000 units), but far from the figures of 2006-2016.
- The BMW sedan customer basis has shifted mainly to SUVs as with many other carmakers. There is already talk of not replacing the 1 Series launched in 2024 and which should continue its career until 2030. BMW seems to be proceeding in the same way as Mercedes, which will abandon A-Class (C-segment) next year.