The Russian market is down by 2.4% in the first half of 2019
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The Russian market is down by 2.4% in the first half of 2019
- The Russian automotive market had grown until 2018, when it grew by 12.8% to 1.8 million units (passenger cars + LCVs). It started to decline in February 2019, so that over the first half of 2019 as a whole, it fell by 2.4%. The main reason for this trend is lower demand, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as an increase in the cost of living following the VAT increase from 18% to 20% on 1st of January 2019. This downturn in the automotive market is also the result of a substantial reduction in government subsidies which had stimulated retail sales.
- In this context, the leader Renault-Nissan (-2.2%, to 302,000 sales) and Chinese automakers (-24.7%, to 28,000 units) are the most affected by the decline in the Russian market, without however any overall change in market rankings. The drop in Ford's sales (-18.1%) is understandable because the American manufacturer has announced its withdrawal from the Russian market, as has its compatriot GM.
- The brand that remains number one in the Russian market, Lada, whose manufacturer Avtovaz is owned by the Renault-Nissan group, continues to grow slightly over the year (+2.5%), while Renault brand sales fell by 13%.
- The Korean group Hyundai-Kia is in second place in the Russian market (+0.9% to 201,000 sales). The German group Volkswagen, which is in third place, grew more significantly (+5.6% to 103,000 sales). These three manufacturers account for 73% of the Russian market. SUVs now occupy 40% of the constantly growing Russian market, while sedans now occupy only 53% of this market.
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続きを読む... The Russian market is down by 2.4% in the first half of 2019
The Argentine market is down 50.4% in the first half of 2019
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The Argentine market is down 50.4% in the first half of 2019
- Argentina is gradually sinking into a serious and lasting economic crisis, dragging all automotive-related industries into its wake. This crisis is linked to an over-indebtedness of both the State and individual households.
- The Argentinean automobile market (PC+LCV) collapsed by 50.4% in the first half of 2019, compared to the first half of 2018, to 235,834 units (compared to 475,884 the previous year). This unfavorable trend in the Argentine market is reminiscent of the crisis of the early 2000s, which was exceptional in its scale. The Argentine market had then gone from 300,000 units per year to 100,000 per year in two years. Gradually, the Argentine market had gradually recovered to reach nearly one million units in 2013, but since then, it has been losing ground. Nonetheless, it was close to 775,000 units in 2018.
- Which manufacturers lost the most sales in the first half of 2019?
- The most affected are GM (-60.0%), PSA (-58.1%), Ford (-52.7%), Volkswagen (-52.5%) and Renault-Nissan (-47.0%).
- However, the Renault-Nissan group remains the leader in Argentina, ahead of Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford, FCA, GM and PSA.
- The other OEMS are far behind these seven manufacturers (which account for 93% of registrations). There are several Chinese manufacturers (Chery, Lifan, Geely, Dongfeng, Great Wall) who are trying to enter this market, but the volume of all Chinese does not exceed 1% of the market. It is also interesting to note that SUVs have not yet made inroads in Argentina, since their market share does not exceed 19% while pick-ups reach 13%. Sedans are still the majority (61%).
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続きを読む... The Argentine market is down 50.4% in the first half of 2019
Toyota and BYD join forces in electric vehicles
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Toyota and BYD join forces in electric vehicles
- The Japanese Toyota group and the Chinese BYD group have joined forces to develop 100% electric vehicles (BEV) for the Chinese market. These future models, which will be launched from 2025 onwards, will be sold in China under the Toyota brand. With this partnership, Toyota aims to develop affordable electric vehicles for the Chinese market, the world's leading market for electric vehicles. Toyota is indeed far behind its competitors in the field of electric cars, since it has focused for the past twenty years on hybrid cars. BYD is the leader in 100% electric cars in China (the world's largest electric vehicle market) and is neck and neck with Tesla worldwide.
- The cooperation with BYD is part of Toyota's strategy to achieve half of its global sales with electrified vehicles (electric and hybrid) by 2025, five years earlier than initially planned.
- But to cope with this acceleration, Toyota needs more batteries than expected, pushing it to look beyond its supplier Panasonic, to secure its supplies. This is why Toyota has signed an agreement with CATL, which will be its second battery supplier.
- These measures are part of a context of strong growth in the market for zero-emission vehicles. Although this market is still only a niche, stricter emission regulations in larger markets should gradually convert drivers of 100% internal combustion engine vehicles in the coming decades. For Toyota, it is also a response to the quotas imposed by the Chinese government.
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The Brazilian market is up 12.1% over the first half of 2019
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The Brazilian market is up 12.1% over the first half of 2019
- Unlike Argentina, Brazil continues to grow in the automotive market, which translates into a 12.1% increase in registrations (PC+LCV) over the first half of 2019, to 1.3 million units, whereas this market had already grown by 14.6% in 2018 compared to 2017, and by 9.5% in 2017 compared to 2016.
- Brazil is the only major car-producing country to make progress in 2019, as the other major countries registrations are falling. The reason for Brazil's good performance is that it is catching up, after reaching a record 3.8 million sales in 2012, which preceded a drop in sales between 2013 and 2016 ( in which year a volume of 2.5 million sales was recorded).
- The question is whether Brazil will continue to catch up and make further progress until the end of the year, or whether it will suffer the negative consequences of weak global economic growth, like the other world markets.
- Most automakers sales increased in the first half of 2019. The strongest increases were recorded by the Chinese OEMs Geely (+41.7%) and Chery (+284.1%) but all the Chinese manufacturers together do not exceed 1% of the Brazilian market. The top four manufacturers are maintaining their position. FCA (+18.7%) still leads over GM (+16.6%), Volkswagen (+14.9%) and Renault-Nissan (+11.6%). These four manufacturers account for 63% of Brazil's registrations.
- SUVs make up only 20% of the Brazilian market, while sedans are still at 61%.
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続きを読む... The Brazilian market is up 12.1% over the first half of 2019
BMW has already transferred part of the Mini production to the Netherlands
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BMW has already transferred part of the Mini production to the Netherlands
- The BMW group has threatened to transfer the entire production of the Mini from the British plant in Cowley (Oxford) to the Dutch plant in Born if negotiations between Europe and Great Britain on Brexit did not result in an agreement.
- Inovev observes that the German manufacturer has in fact already transferred part of the Mini from Cowley to Born some time ago. Indeed, as early as 2014, when the third generation of the Mini was launched (the first two generations were from 2001 and 2006), part of its production was transferred to the Born plant: 17.5% of the volume of Mini excluding Mini Countryman. This percentage rose to 29% in 2015, 30% in 2017 and 33% in 2018.
- One third of the Mini cars are now manufactured at the Nedcar site in Born, in addition to the Countryman cars that are produced in their entirety. In fact, the Born site produced a volume of 172,307 Mini and Mini Countryman in 2018, while the Cowley site (historic site of the former Morris brand) produced 189,676 units.
- If BMW decided to close the Cowley plant following a Brexit without an agreement, it would probably be difficult to transfer nearly 190,000 Mini to Born, as the Dutch plant would then have to produce more than 350,000 cars per year, which is impossible. The most likely scenario therefore remains a transfer to the plant that BMW is building in Debrecen, Hungary.
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続きを読む... BMW has already transferred part of the Mini production to the Netherlands