The European market by country in the first quarter of 2020

The European passenger car market fell 26.3% in the first quarter of 2020, which is better than the Chinese market (-45.4%), but less than the American (-11.1%), Japanese markets. (-10.0%) or Indian (-22.1%).


Regarding the European market, we observe that the countries most affected by the coronavirus are among the countries where car sales fell the most during the quarter. Thus, Italy (-35.4%), France (-34.1%), the United Kingdom (-31.0%) and Spain (-31.0%) see their automotive market s '' collapse even more dramatically than the European market as a whole.


The countries which resisted the best were rather the countries located in the East of Europe, those located in the North of Europe (Scandinavia) as well as Germany and the Netherlands. These countries have been little affected by the coronavirus.


Only Austria is a special case, as its market fell by 32.3% while the country was little affected by the coronavirus.


This observation could lead at the end of the year to a two-speed Europe: a Europe little affected by the pandemic with a relatively moderate drop in its registrations and whose economy will restart faster, and a Europe more affected by the pandemic with a sharp drop in its registrations and whose economy will restart more slowly, due to a longer confinement atrophying the industrial and commercial sectors.


This scenario obviously excludes a second wave of the pandemic which could possibly occur at the end of the second quarter of 2020 or in the second half of 2020.


20-10-1
    
 

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Inovev plans 150,000 units per year of the new Toyota Yaris Cross

Despite the containment and closed dealerships, Toyota has unveiled its new B-segment SUV, the new Yaris Cross, derived from the Yaris sedan introduced last year.


This new model, more compact than the CHR, rivals the Nissan Juke, Renault Captur, Peugeot 2008, DS 3 Crossback, Skoda Kamiq and future Opel Mokka.


It will be manufactured on the French site of Onnaing, alongside the Yaris sedan, at the rate of 150,000 units per year, which should allow the production of a comparable quantity of Yaris sedans on the same site. If demand is higher than expected, Toyota has already announced that part of the Yaris sedans will be produced at the Czech site in Kolin.


The Yaris Cross is based like the Yaris sedan on the TNGA (New Global Architecture) platform which is also used by the Corolla, Prius, CHR and RAV4.


Its engines are those mounted on the Yaris sedan, including the 1.5 hybrid engine which should represent the majority of sales of the Yaris Cross. The Toyota group has also announced the factory release of its 15 millionth hybrid vehicle, all models combined. With the new model unveiled today, Toyota has four SUVs in different segments in Europe: Yaris Cross (segment B), CHR (segment C), RAV4 (segment D) and Land Cruiser (segment E).


Inovev plans 150,000 units per year of the new Toyota Yaris Cross.


20-10-2
    
 

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Global auto sales return to 2010 levels

Global auto sales (VP + LCV) in 2020 fell to the same level as a decade earlier, when taking into account sales made in the first quarter. The Covid-19 erased the growth achieved between the lowest point of the decade in 2009 and 2018, the year which represented the highest point of sales volume, since the year 2019 had already recorded a decline in around 5%. The year 2020 should show a much more significant drop, of the order of 25%, and perhaps more if the demand is not there in the second half of this year, because the second quarter is and already lost, since we could observe a decrease of around 30%.


To achieve a decrease of 25% over the whole year, we would have to count on a decrease of 20% in the third quarter and a decrease of 20% in the fourth quarter, which is not impracticable, because the manufacturers will sell off their cars put in stock since the beginning of containment and it is to be expected that the anxiety of traveling by public transport can bring new customers, even if many will prefer the bicycle or the electric scooter, even the car second hand.


Auto production follows the same trend as sales, with a small difference in the first quarter (-27% for production, -25% for sales) as production stopped in mid-March while sales continued until 'at the end of March.


Even though automakers will have to restock after deconfinement, provided they have sold their old stocks, global auto production could fall 25% over the year, returning to 2006 levels.


20-10-4
    
 

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Renault will not replace the Scénic, Talisman, Espace and Koléos

The coronavirus crisis is putting most car manufacturers in trouble, as the world market will collapse in 2020, probably from -25% to -30%, and the shortfall for manufacturers will therefore be enormous.


Car manufacturers will therefore have to make significant savings in an attempt to offset part of their announced losses, and in particular reduce their supply to the most profitable products by eliminating niche products and investments in niche or low-volume products .


Renault has thus hinted that the Scénic, Talisman, Espace and Koléos will not be replaced at the end of their careers. In 2019, these four models totaled 104,140 units only (67,597 Scénic, 15,016 Talisman, 8,961 Espace and 12,566 Koléos), while the Captur totaled 239,332 units and the Clio 404,759 units.


Renault will focus all its efforts on the Clio and the Captur, and will develop electric vehicles in the A segment (future Twingo) and the C segment (future Megane and future Kadjar). La Zoé will continue to represent the brand in segment B.


The Alpine case is not settled, but its position remains fragile.


The Dacia range will continue on its way, with the addition of an electric model in the A segment (Europeanized K-ZE) and the renewal of the Logan, Sandero and Duster. The case of Lodgy and Dokker remains pending.


If Renault succeeded in low cost with Dacia, it obviously failed in luxury with the Scénic, Talisman, Espace and Koléos.


20-10-3
    
 

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European LCV market fell 24.7% in the first quarter of 2020

The European automobile market in 29 countries for light commercial vehicles fell by 60.9% in March 2020, to 93,373 units. In the quarter, the European market for 29 countries fell 24.7% to 422,378 units. This sharp drop recorded in March 2020 (steeper than that recorded by VPs) is due to the coronavirus crisis which led to the closure of factories and car dealerships in the middle of the month, and of course to the confinement of the population and the '' shutdown of activity of many companies. This decline is the largest since World War II, as even the successive oil shocks and the 2008/2009 financial crisis had no such impact on sales and production of light commercial vehicles in Europe. And when we know that LCVs are bought by businesses, artisans and traders, it is not certain that sales of LCVs will restart quickly due to the economic crisis of an unprecedented scale which should follow the health crisis. .


Over the whole year, the European LCV market could therefore fall by 30% in an optimistic scenario and by 40% in a pessimistic scenario.


The results by manufacturer are not yet known, but by country, we observe that the most affected are Slovenia, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and France.


The least affected countries are Bulgaria, Denmark, Norway, Slovakia, Hungary, Finland and Germany, and therefore more of the countries of Northern and Central Europe, where confinement was more flexible.


20-10-5
    
 

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