Vehicles relocations has caused Germany to lose 17,6 million passenger cars since 2005
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Vehicles relocations has caused Germany to lose 17,6 million passenger cars since 2005
- Since the end of the 1990s, Germany, like France, has relocated a certain number of models to other European countries such as Belgium, Spain, Portugal or countries in Eastern Europe after their integration in the European Union (1986 for Spain and 2004 for most Eastern European countries). Inovev counts as relocated models those which are currently produced abroad while they were previously partially or fully produced in Germany.
- Among the models relocated since 1998, we can count by brand:
• Audi: part of the A3s were relocated to Belgium and Hungary from 2007, the Q3 to Spain from 2011 to 2018 and to Hungary from 2018, to Slovakia from 2005, Q5 to Mexico from 2017.
• BMW : the X1 to the Netherlands from 2018 to 2022.
• Mercedes: part of A Class, B Class, to Hungary from 2012, part of C Class to the USA.
• Porsche: Boxster/Cayman to Finland until 2011.
• Volkswagen: the Polo to Spain since the 90s and Up! to Slovakia.
- In total, production in Germany lost 1,100,000 passenger cars in 2023 due to relocations and 17,6 million since 2005, at the same level as France. By combining production in Germany as well as relocated models, the volume nevertheless growned, unlike in France.
Vehicles relocations has caused France to lose 22,8 million passenger cars since 2005
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Vehicles relocations has caused France to lose 22,8 million passenger cars since 2005
- Since the end of the 90s, France has relocated a certain number of models in other European countries such as Spain or countries in Eastern Europe after their integration into the European Union (1986 for Spain and 2004 for most Eastern European countries). Inovev counts as relocated models those which are currently produced abroad while they were previously partially or fully produced in France.
- Among the models relocated since 1998, we can count by brand:
• Peugeot: part of the Peugeot 206s to England in 1998, part of the Peugeot 207s to Spain and Slovakia in 2006, part of the Peugeot 208s to Slovakia in 2012 and all in 2019, all of the Peugeots 2008 to Spain in 2020. These relocations under the Peugeot brand represent nearly 400,000 vehicles in 2023.
• Citroën: part of the Citroën C3 to Spain in 2002 then all to Slovakia in 2016, all of the Citroën C4 to Spain in 2020. These relocations under the Citroën brand represent nearly 300,000 vehicles in 2023.
• DS: all DS4s to Germany in 2021. These relocations under the DS brand represent 30,000 vehicles in 2023.
• Renault: some Renault Clio to Slovenia, Spain and Turkey from the end of the 1990s, most of the Renault Meganeto Spain and Turkey from the end of the 1990s, all of the Renault Twingoto Slovenia in 2007, all Renault Espace to Spain in 2023. These relocations under the Renault brand represent 530,000 vehicles in 2023.
- In total, production in France lost 1,250,000 passenger cars in 2023 due to relocation and 22,8 million since 2005. Today, the volume of relocated vehicles exceeds the volume of vehicles produced in France. It should also be noted that, even if the relocated vehicles had continued to be produced in France, the fall in French production would have fallen, from 4 million vehicles to around 2.2 million. This is explained by the drop in demand for vehicles still produced in France (e.g. Renault Scenic) but also for vehicles produced outside France (e.g.: Renault Twingo).
The Ford Mustang Mach E (BEV) fails to convince
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The Ford Mustang Mach E (BEV) fails to convince
- The American carmakers GM, Ford and Chrysler came late in the BEV market due to government policy unfavourable to this type of engine and the ancestral habits of American customers to use vehicles equipped with large gasoline engines 8 and six cylinders, very fuel-intensive in a country where the price of fuel remains low, compared to Europe for example.
- Only Tesla wanted to progress against the tide in this specifically hostile market, with honourable success, as the Californian carmaker produced in US, 356,000 BEVs in 2020, 444,000 in 2021, 593,000 in 2022 and 703,000 in 2023. Compared to Tesla, GM, Ford and Chrysler have remained very timid in the BEV market.
- GM launched the Chevrolet Bolt, then the Chevrolet Silverado EV, Chevrolet Blazer EV, GMC Hummer EV, Cadillac Lyriq, with mixed success. Chrysler has not yet launched BEVs but plans to launch a future range of BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S, the Dodge Charger or Ram pickup EV. Regarding Ford, the carmaker launched the Mustang Mach-E in 2020, the F-Series Lightning pickup and the Transit EV.
- While the electric version of Ford F Series and Transit are selling in very small numbers, the Mustang Mach-E has found its customer base but displays relatively modest volumes. Between April 2020 and April 2024, 256,785 units were produced, or 64,000 per year on average and 5,350 per month on average. Compared to its competitor the Tesla Model Y produced in the United States (180,000 per year on average and 15,000 per month on average), the difference is abysmal.
The Algerian Renault plant does not meet the carmaker's objectives at all
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The Algerian Renault plant does not meet the carmaker's objectives at all
- The Algerian Renault plant located in Oran (Western Algeria) was inaugurated in 2014 to meet the demand of the Algerian market which had seen imports gradually reduced following the decision of the local government. The French carmaker was counting on 75,000 vehicles produced per year in this plant, representing 50% to 75% of the local market (exports were not planned).
- The vehicles marketed were the Renault Clio and the Dacia rebadged Renault Logan and Renault Sandero. The 75,000 units were almost reached in 2018 (33,000 Sandero, 24,000 Logan and 13,000 Clio) but that year represents the peak of production never exceeded since, as the production volume of the plant fell to 60,000 units in 2019 before collapsing in 2020, during the Covid crisis. The partly closed plant only produced 761 vehicles in 2020 and the following years saw no real progress: 5,208 vehicles in 2021, 2,773 in 2022 and 2,456 in 2023.
- The Renault Symbol (new name for the Renault Logan) became the only car assembled on the site, but without an improvement of the volumes. The problem would lie in the CKD/SKD process with the volume of imported parts being reduced by the Algerian government in order to promote local integration of the supply chain.
- The Stellantis group, for its part, would have responded favourably to this request by establishing a plant in Oran intended to produce Fiat 500 and Doblo, with a capacity of 50,000 units per year which could be doubled by 2026. The group says it wants reach 10% of local integration rate in 2024, 25% in 2025 then 35% in 2026, according to the wishes of the Algerian government.
The utilisation rate of European plants rose to 67% in 2023
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The utilisation rate of European plants rose to 67% in 2023
- After recording good utilization rates in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (around an average utilization rate of 80%), European automobile plants suffered the shock of the health crisis in 2020, the semi-conductors crisis in 2021 and the consequences of the war in Ukraine in 2022 (increase in the price of fuel, electricity and raw materials) and an overall stagnation of the demand. As a result, European automobile plants operated at around 61-62% of their capacities in 2020, 2021 and 2022, which put several largely oversized plants at risk.
- Four European plants closed during this 2020-2022 period: the two Honda plants in Swindon (England) and Gebze (Turkey) and the two Nissan plants in Barcelona (Spain) and Avila (Spain). Many other plants saw their activity decline sharply, but further closures were avoided with a view to a relaunch of markets and production from 2023.
- Of course, a partial recovery took place in 2023, but it remains modest since we went from an utilization rate of European plants of 61% in 2022 to 67% in 2023, far from the results recorded before 2020.
- Carmakers kept their less active plants, maybe expecting that the European market could quickly return to the pre-covidlevel while maintaining a good level of exports to Asia, America and Africa.However, we note that 16 European plants will benefit from a utilization rate equal to or greater than 90% in 2023 (see graph below) with a strong representation of the Volkswagen, BMW and Toyota groups.