4 million vehicles produced in Canada and Mexico could be repatriated to the USA
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4 million vehicles produced in Canada and Mexico could be repatriated to the USA
- The Trump administration's announcement to impose a tariff (25%? Or even more?) on new vehicles from Canada and Mexico is primarily aimed at shifting production of automobiles sold on the US market and manufactured in Canada and Mexico to the United States. What are they?
- Inovev has listed the models (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) that could be transferred from Canada and Mexico to the United States, provided that the production capacity of the factories in which these models could be produced is sufficient.
• Canada : This country produced 1,365,528 vehicles in 2024, excluding heavy-duty trucks. The largest producer is the Toyota group (525,071 units), followed by Honda (420,550 units), Stellantis (192,828 units), GM (172,901 units), and Ford (54,178 units). More than 80% of the vehicles produced in Canada are exported to the USA.
• Mexico : This country produces almost three times more than Canada, or 3,722,740 vehicles in 2024, not including heavy-duty trucks. The largest producer is the GM group (838,289 units), followed by Nissan (542,414 units), Volkswagen (526,535 units), Stellantis (419,388 units), Ford (386,780 units), Toyota (242,809 units), Mazda (209,303 units), Honda (194,686 units), Hyundai-Kia (184,507 units), BMW (95,151 units), and Mercedes (57,487 units). More than 80% of the vehicles produced in Mexico are exported to the USA.
• If we remove the models produced and sold in Canada and Mexico (nearly 800,000 units), there remain more than 4 million cars exported from Canada and Mexico to the United States that could be manufactured there, which would require increasing the production capacity of manyplants located in the United States.
BEV and PHEV sales by segment in Europe and China in 2024: a noticeable difference between China and Europe
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BEV and PHEV sales by segment in Europe and China in 2024: a noticeable difference between China and Europe
- China purchased 7,037,467 BEVs and 5,103,379 PHEVs in 2024. Europe, for its part, purchased 1,993,102 BEVs and 952,058 PHEVs last year. BEVs thus represent 26% of the Chinese market in 2024 and PHEVs 19%. In Europe, BEVs did not exceed 16% of the market and PHEVs 7%. There is a clear difference between the segment distribution of BEVs and PHEVs in China and Europe.
-BEV :
• In China, 100% electric cars are mainly in the D segment . These represent almost half of BEV sales (47%). This is followed by 100% electric cars in the A and C segments, equally so (17% for each of the two segments). It should be noted that BEVs in the A segment are mainly small two- or three-door cars. Finally, BEVs in the B and E segments are few in number (12% and 4% respectively).
• In Europe, BEVs are mainly in the C and D segments (37% and 32% respectively). The B segment represents only 17% of the European BEV market, but this proportion is expected to increase substantially with the arrival of small electric cars under 30,000 euros (Renault 5 E-Tech, Citroën e-C3, Fiat Grande Panda EV, Hyundai Inster , Kia EV2, etc.). The E and A segments are poorly represented (8% and 4% respectively), but the supply in the A segment is expected to increase in 2026.
- PHEV :
•In China, plug-in hybrid cars are mainly D-segment , in an overwhelming proportion (85%), largely supplanting the E and C segments (7% and 4% respectively), with the A and B segments not being represented.
• In Europe, PHEVs are mainly C and D segments (43% and 30% respectively) in a proportion close to that of BEVs. Next come the E and F segments (23% and 2% respectively), with the A and B segments being almost unrepresented.
Thermal vehicles (PC) in Europe, China, USA and Japan in 2024: continuing decline of thermal vehicles
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Thermal vehicles (PC) in Europe, China, USA and Japan in 2024: continuing decline of thermal vehicles
Alongside the growth in sales of fully electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and non-plug-in hybrid vehicles (Full-HEV) in all regions of the world, there has been a continuing and significant decline in sales of thermal vehicles (petrol, diesel and MHEV) in most of these regions.
1. The drop in sales of thermal cars (including MHEVs) was the sharpest in China , with these falling from 95% of the market in 2018 to 50% in December 2024. In volume, this represents a drop of 5 million units during this period, with the market for thermal cars falling from 20 million to 15 million, while during this same period, the Chinese market for passenger cars grew from 23.7 million to 27.5 million.
2. The fall in sales of thermal cars (including MHEVs) was also relatively sharp in Europe , with these falling from 95% of the market in 2018 to 60% in December 2024. In volume, this represents a fall of 4.7 million units during this period, with the thermal car market falling from 13.5 million to 8.8 million, while during this same period, the European passenger car market fell from 14.3 million to 12.9 million.
3. The drop in sales of thermal cars (including MHEVs) was much less severe in the USA (due to lifestyles leading to a preference for gasoline engines), these falling from 95% of the market in 2018 to 80% in December 2024. In volume, this represents a drop of 2.6 million units during this period, the market for thermal cars falling from 15.5 million to 12.9 million.
4. Japan is the country where the drop in sales of thermal cars (including MHEVs) was the smallest (due to a strong historical presence of hybrid engines and Key-cars), these falling from 75% of the market in 2018 to 65% in December 2024. In volume, this represents a drop of 0.8 million units during this period, the market for thermal cars falling from 3.2 million to 2.4 million.
Vinfast sold 97,399 BEVs worldwide in 2024
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Vinfast sold 97,399 BEVs worldwide in 2024
- Vietnamese automaker Vinfast delivered 97,399 all-electric vehicles (BEVs) worldwide in 2024, compared to 34,855 in 2023, representing a 179% increase. The majority of its sales occurred in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 53,139 units during this three-month period, representing an annual rate of 200,000 units. The carmaker also announced that its target of selling 80,000 electric vehicles in 2024 was largely exceeded, and also that it had set new targets for 2025, corresponding to 200,000 units.
- Let us recall that in 2023, Vinfast had indicated that it wanted to sell 1 million electric cars by 2030. To achieve this objective, the Vietnamese carmaker plans to develop its sales in Vietnam (10,000 sales recorded in January 2025, which is equivalent to an annual rate of 120,000 units), but also in the USA (600 sales in January 2025), in Europe (30 sales in January 2025, most of which in Germany), in India (project to build a plant producing 150,000 vehicles per year) and in Indonesia (project to build a plant producing 50,000 vehicles per year).
- Vinfast 's goal is to increase its plants' production capacity from 300,000 vehicles per year in 2024 (in Vietnam) to 500,000 in 2026 (after building factories in India and Indonesia), then 750,000 in 2028 and 1,000,000 in 2029 (after building new factories in other countries).
- It should be added that Vinfast delivered 70,977 electric scooters and bicycles worldwide in 2024, representing a 1% increase compared to the previous year.
Kei Cars will represent 38% of the Japanese market in 2024 compared to 40% in 2023
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Kei Cars will represent 38% of the Japanese market in 2024 compared to 40% in 2023
- Kei-cars are small, lightweight cars (Keijidosha means "light cars") marketed in Japan, with dimensions and engine capacities imposed by Japanese regulations. Today, they must not exceed 3.40 m in length, 1.48 m in width and 2.00 m in height and the engine capacity of their internal combustion engine must not exceed 670 cm3. These cars are slightly shorter than European A-segment cars and slightly longer than Chinese A-segment cars. These cars, which are distinguished by their yellow license plates, benefit from advantages in terms of taxes and insurance.
- This category of cars has occupied nearly 40% of the Japanese market for the past ten years, after having occupied between 30% and 35% the previous ten years. It is mainly represented by the Daihatsu (Toyota group) and Suzuki brands. But in 2024, the scandal of falsified tests at Daihatsu disrupted the Kei-car market, since the sales of this carmaker collapsed during the first half of the year, part of the customer of this brand having turned to Suzuki (+ 60,000 sales), another part of the customer of this brand having postponed its purchase.
- As a result, the Japanese Kei-car market has declined by 167,000 units in 2024 (but is expected to recover in 2025, thanks to the postponement of purchases by Daihatsu customers), which reduces the market share of these vehicles from 40% in 2023 to 38% in 2024 , the lowest market share observed since 2017.
- The Nissan Sakura, which launched the all-electric Kei-car market in 2022, failed to developped on the market, dropping from 37,140 sales in 2023 to 22,926 in 2024.