Ford's BEV sales targets
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- The Ford group is one of the last major carmakers (with Toyota and GM) to now direct its industrial and commercial policy towards electric vehicles, which was not the case two or three years ago. It is therefore aiming for a production capacity of around 600,000 100% electric vehicles worldwide by January 1, 2024, i.e. 10% of its total production capacity and 15% of its actual production on that date. In addition, Ford claims to be able to guarantee its supply of batteries, i.e. 60 GWh. Its objective is to produce by this date 270,000 Mustang Mach-E per year for North America, Europe and China, 150,000 F-Series Lightning for North America, 150,000 electric light commercial vehicles for the America and Europe, and 30,000 units of an all-new SUV for Europe (on Volkswagen platform).
- Ford thinks it can double these objectives between 2024 and 2026 (to 1,200,000 units) and triple these objectives between 2026 and 2028 (to 1,800,000 units), depending on the arrival of new 100% electric Ford models on the Volkswagen platform which should multiply in Europe and China.
- Note that this production will be divided equally between North America, Europe and China. In Europe, for example, the Cologne and Valencia factories will be put to use from 2023-2024 – even if Ford recently decided to postpone its investments in Spain – with the launch of new 100% electric models on the Volkswagen platform. These factories should together produce 200,000 cars per year by 2024, 400,000 cars per year by 2026 and 600,000 cars per year by 2028.
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Disappointing sales of the ID3 force VW to rethink its BEV strategy
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- The Volkswagen group has just made two important strategic decisions: the decision to anticipate the restyling of the ID3 and to carry it out at the end of the year, and on the other hand the decision to replace the chairman and general manager of the carmaker. These decisions are probably linked to the disappointing sales of the 100% electric ID3 which was to gradually replace the Volkswagen Golf according to the management of the company, that is to say the best-selling car in Europe for decades, but the ID3 does not even manage to be in first position among electric car sales in Europe, neither in 2021 nor in 2022.
- The figures for 2022 are even down sharply (-45%) compared to the previous year and the ID3 is now only in ninth position on the electric car market. The Volkswagen ID4 is ahead of the ID3, but it is only in fourth position, behind the Fiat 500 e, Peugeot e-208 and Renault Zoé.
- For the ID3, it is a flagrant failure, since it is even overtaken by the Tesla Model Y sold more expensively. The production capacities that had been installed for it (we were talking about 100,000 copies per year in Zwickau) are now oversized since sales of the ID3 represent only 17,000 units in the first half of 2022, i.e. a potential of 35 000 units over the year.
- These mixed results of the ID3 and ID4 will perhaps have to force the Volkswagen group to rethink its BEV strategy and to offer new, more attractive products at more studied prices.
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Inovev forecasts 45,000 units per year of the new Toyota Crown
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- Toyota has just completely renewed its E-segment sedan, the Crown, which is blatantly evolving both aesthetically and mechanically. Indeed, the Crown, which was an ultra-conservative classic sedan with three volumes between 1955 and 2017 and which had switched to the hatchback in 2017, is going further with this new generation launched in the fall of 2022.
- The new version is presented in the form of a raised hatchback with certain traits of the SUV, so it now looks like a Peugeot 408, with the same dropout at the rear quarter window.
- However, three other bodies will be available in 2023, including a more classic hatchback. But it is the version presented here in photo which is put forward and which should be the most sold.
- Unlike previous versions, the new Crown will return to the US market in 2023 to replace the disappearing Toyota Avalon. The last Crown was sold in the USA in 1972.
- On the Japanese market, the Crown represents Toyota's top of the range, below the Century, which is much less popular and has a V8 engine. From a technical point of view, the Crown is also evolving. It now has a 2.4-liter four-cylinder turbocharged Mild-Hybrid engine with a choice of 236 hp or 340 hp. The new generation of the Crown will have to try to relaunch the career of a model which has declined significantly over the past fifteen years, going from 90,000 sales in 2005 to 50,000 in 2015 and 22,000 in 2021. Inovev forecasts 45,000 sales per year of the new generation, half of which in the United States.
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Are VW and GM too exposed to a possible political risk in China?
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- The CEO of the Stellantis group, Carlos Tavares, has said in recent weeks that his group was less exposed to political and economic risks in China than were the Volkswagen and General Motors groups, which are much more exposed because they sell 20 to 25 times more cars in China than Stellantis.
- It is true that VW and GM sold up to 4 million cars a year on the Chinese market (against 750,000 PSAs at their best), but the two leading groups in China have seen their sales drop significantly, to 3 million in 2022 for VW and 2 million for GM. The decline of the two carmakers on the Chinese market is therefore already underway and should continue in the coming years, because Chinese customers now have much more confidence in Chinese brands which have made great progress in quality and design in recent years, without until their prices have risen significantly.
- Sales of Chinese cars have thus increased significantly over the past three years, exceeding for the first time 9 million units per year in 2022 (passenger cars) which represents an overall market share of 43.5% without counting the Baojun and the Wulings which are counted in the GM group. The electrification of the market has also reinforced the growth of Chinese brands whose BEV offer is numerous and competitive, even if Tesla monopolizes part of it (18% of the BEV market). Foreign carmakers like VW and GM have not put together a BEV offer capable of competing with the Chinese offer or that of Tesla.
- In conclusion, the VW and GM groups are exposed but much less than they were three or four years ago.
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The top 15 manufacturers in the world in the first five months of 2022
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続きを読む... The top 15 manufacturers in the world in the first five months of 2022