PSA could sell the Ellesmere Port plant to Jaguar Land Rover
In its analysis on the future of the PSA site in Ellesmere Port (United Kingdom ) published on November 13, 2017, Inovev concluded that PSA, which is significantly lowering the production capacity at this plant, should either produce another model from 2021 (end of life of the current Opel Astra) or close the factory, like Ryton (ex-Chrysler UK) that it closed in 2007 or Lindwood (ex-Chrysler UK) ) that it closed in 1981.

The PSA group could have found another solution to save the Ellesmere Port plant, while no longer producing there. The project currently under negotiation would be to sell the Ellesmere Port plant to the Jaguar Land Rover group (a subsidiary of the Indian Tata group ) which currently lacks production capacity to meet demand, and will lack even more if the Jaguar and Land Rover product lines continue to grow as at present. Jaguar has recently decided to produce its E-Pace SUV at the tier 0.5 Magna’s plant in Austria, the future I-Pace will also be produced at Magna, and the future J-Pace and XJ will be launched in 2020 and 2021. Land Rover will also renew its range over the next few years and launch a brand new generation of the Defender in 2019.

Jaguar Land Rover sold 620,000 cars worldwide in 2017 (up from 490,000 in 2015), while today it only has a capacity of 490,000 units in its own factories.


18-01-7   
 

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Inovev forecasts 50,000 to 60,000 sales/year for the Lincoln Nautilus
Lincoln, the premium brand of the Ford group, has unveiled the Nautilus SUV (D-segment), built upon the Ford Edge platform. The Nautilus replaces the MKX in the Lincoln range and will support the other SUVs of the brand, namely the MKC (C segment), MKT (E segment) and Navigator (F segment). The MKX has remained the most produced Lincoln SUV for many years, before being overtaken by the cheaper and more compact MKC

However, sales of the MKX have never exceeded 50,000 units per year (they reached 48,000 units in 2017, against 49,000 in 2016), the peak of sales was reached in 2007, with a volume of 50,000 sales. The new generation of MKX, renamed Nautilus, is expected to exceed 50,000 annual sales, although the US market is expected to fall slightly over the next few years. The Ford Group intends to revive the Lincoln brand in the Chinese market, very fond of SUV and Premium models. And the Nautilus could help Lincoln to win in this market. It would compete with Cadillac, Lexus, Infiniti and Acura D-segment SUVs.

The Nautilus is equipped with two gasoline engines: a 2.0-liter turbo engine developing 245hp and a 2.7-liter turbo V6 developing 335hp. This model will be marketed from next spring. Depending upon  the success of Nautilus on the Chinese market, Inovev expects 50,000 to 60,000  yearly worldwide sales of this model.


18-01-5   
 

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Inovev forecasts 150,000 sales / year for the new Honda Insight
Honda unveiled the new generation of the Honda Insight (Hybrid Sedan) at the 2018 Detroit Auto Show. This new generation is based on the recent Civic and features the same 2.0 hybrid engine as the 2018 model-year CRV. The Insight  is clearly changing category, both in size (it is larger than the Civic) and  in motorization (since this time it is a real hybrid, like the Toyota Prius, with a more powerful engine than the old Insight).

The previous Insight was cancelled in 2014 due to insufficient sales and a weak hybrid technology compared to its main competitor, the Toyota Prius. When comparing the sales curve of the Toyota Prius and that of the Honda Insight, we see that the Toyota reached a volume of 500,000 sales in 2010, then 600,000 sales in 2012 and 2013, while the Honda Insight  never exceeded 160,000 annual sales and these sales quickly collapsed, probably because this model (Mild Hybrid) was uncompetitive compared to other hybrid cars (Full Hybrid) on the market. Inovev forecasts 150,000  annual sales for the new model.

With the new generation being shown in Detroit, Honda seems to have made the Insight sedan much more competitive. One must  remember that Toyota makes half of its sales in Europe thanks to its hybrid models and Honda now has the objective of selling two-thirds of its models in hybrid version.


18-01-3   
 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

Hyundai can expect a few thousand sales a year for the Nexo
The Korean manufacturer Hyundai unveiled a new fuel cell and hydrogen fuel cell SUV at the 2018 Detroit Auto Show that replaces the old SUV iX 35 with the same technology, of which only a few dozen have been distributed to test the European market. These tests having been deemed positive, the new model (called Nexo) will try to convince the world’s customers of the merits of this technology. The hydrogen fueled SUV iX 35 is an electric vehicle that produces electricity through a fuel cell that powers the electric motor. Hydrogen is used as fuel. When mixed with oxygen in the fuel cell, the reaction of these two elements generates electricity. The only residue of this reaction is water vapor.

It is currently difficult to forecast a volume of sales for the Nexo because the demand for this type of fuel cell model remains unknown, and the number of hydrogen stations in activity greatly reduced. Hyundai can expect a few thousand sales a year in the best case, which is why to limit the design costs of Nexo, the manufacturer has based the new model on the Kia Niro on which several exterior panels had to be changed.

Hyundai has announced that it will launch three new 100% electric vehicles by 2021, including an electric version of the recent Kona, in addition to the Kia Soul and Hyundai Ioniq which have been available for several years in electric versions.


18-01-6   
 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

Ford is considering removing Fiesta, Fusion, and Taurus from the US market
The Ford group plans to eliminate its Fiesta (segment B), Fusion (D segment) and Taurus (E segment) sedans from its US market offering. Only the Focus sedan (C segment) would remain to represent Ford in the US sedan market. And this model, it seems, would be imported from China and no longer manufactured in North America.

Ford wants to follow the evolution of the US market where sales of sedans have been collapsing for several years in favor of SUVs. In 2017, sedans account for only 35% of registrations in the US market.

- However this volume still represents 6 million cars in 2017. In addition, this is happening at a time when the price of oil is at its lowest, which promotes sales of SUV, but this price can only increase in the future. The rise in the price of oil is inevitable in the long term, because the reserves will gradually become scarce.

Finally, abandoning the sedan segment to the advantage of SUVs will leave the field open to Japanese and Korean manufacturers, who will become even stronger in this market. They already have seven cars in the top ten US PC, including in the first six places. Ford’s abandon could aggravate this situation and put eight or nine Asian cars in the top ten. FCA has already discontinued its Chrysler 200 and Dodge Dart, and GM is also considering reducing the range of its sedans. This general retreat of US automakers demonstrates their determination to abandon declining segments.


18-01-4   
 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

 
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