Did Japanese sedans benefit in the USA from the discontinuation of American sedans?
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Did Japanese sedans benefit in the USA from the discontinuation of American sedans?
- We recently brought to the front that the two major American carmakers, GM and Ford, had decided to remove sedans from their American ranges, judging that this sedan market was in constant decline (although it had been extremely important and even vital in the 50s and 60s, until the mid-70s) and less and less profitable, facing the constant growth of more profitable SUVs. While station wagons had been gradually replaced by minivans (MPVs), sedans were gradually replaced by SUVs (with SUVs even eventually replacing minivans).
- Japanese carmakers, which occupy 37% of the US market in 2024, are the most direct competitors of the GM and Ford groups. It is therefore relevant to know whether the discontinuation of American sedans has benefited Japanese sedans. When we observe the sales curves of American and Japanese sedans, we see that the decline of this type of car has been general. The number of Japanese sedans on the US market fell from 3 million units per year in 2013-2014-2015-2016 to 1.5 million per year in 2020-2021-2022, due to the increasingly strong competition from SUVs. However, unlike American sedans, Japanese sedans sales reversed the trend in 2023, increasing by 350,000 units, which may be explained by a transfer of part of the customer base from American sedans to Japanese sedans. Competition from European sedans is not affected because these are premium sedans that don't really face any competition from GM and Ford, aside from a few Cadillac and Lincoln models that sell very little. And the competition from Korean sedans is too weak.
Japanese carmakers under pressure to produce more in the USA
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Japanese carmakers under pressure to produce more in the USA
- Japanese carmakers, even though they produce a lot in the United States (3.36 million vehicles produced in 2024, representing 35% of the total production carried out in the country), still import a lot from abroad. They imported 2.51 million vehicles in 2024, including 900,000 from Japan, 845,000 from Canada and 765,000 from Mexico. The announcement of 25% tariff (in addition to the existing tariffs) on automobile imports from abroad could therefore impact these 2.51 million vehicles.
- By carmaker:
• Toyota, which already has six plants in the United States, would however be the most impacted, with 1.08 million vehicles imported in 2024 from Canada (553,189 units), Mexico (192,813 units) and Japan (339,217 units).
• Honda, which has four plants in the United States, imported 443,185 vehicles last year, including 291,712 from Canada and 151,473 from Mexico.
• Mazda, which does not have a plant in the United States, imported 342,941 vehicles, including 207,546 from Japan and 135,395 from Mexico.
• Nissan, which has two plants in the United States, imports 326,124 vehicles, including 287,051 from Mexico and 39,073 from Japan.
• Subaru, which has only one plant in the United States, imports 209,900 vehicles from Japan.
• Finally, Mitsubishi, which no longer has a plant in the United States, imports 102,856 vehicles from Japan.
- If Japanese carmakers wanted to transfer part of their production to the United States (Mazda and Mitsubishi cannot), they would have to increase the capacity of their US plants or build new ones.
Auto Shangai 2025: Lynk&Co is aiming for a new lease of life in Europe
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Auto Shangai 2025: Lynk&Co is aiming for a new lease of life in Europe
- The Chinese brand Lynk&Co (one of the many brands of the Geely group ) has been distributed in Europe since 2021. At the beginning, It had bet on an unconventional purchasing process for this market, since it was a non-binding subscription system applied on the Internet and accredited on its only model marketed in Europe, the Lynk&Co 01 SUV, this model being based on the Volvo XC40 plug-in hybrid (Volvo is also a brand of the Geely group ).
- The formula worked for two years but has been in decline since 2023. While sales in China are trending upwards, reflecting the growth of the Chinese automotive market and a more traditional distribution system, in Europe, sales have been at their lowest since 2023. It should be added that only one model is available on a restricted number of European markets (Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden) and nine different models on the Chinese market. The lack of a network has not worked in favor of the formula in Europe. Today, the brand is backtracking and returning to a more traditional distributor and paying (direct purchase or long term leasing) systems. Around thirty distributors are planned for 2025 for Europe, including around ten in France.
- It is in this context that Lynk&Co is launching the 02, a compact SUV based on the Volvo EX30 and Smart #3. In fact, this model has been known for several months in China under the name Lynk&Co Z20. It is a battery electric rear-wheel drive SUV measuring 4.46 m long, which is 22 cm longer than its cousin, the Volvo EX30, which is part of the B segment, and 3 cm longer than the Volvo EX40, which is part of the C segment. The Lynk&Co 02 can therefore be classified in the C segment.
GM, Ford and Stellantis would be heavily impacted by Mexico-Canada import taxes
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GM, Ford and Stellantis would be heavily impacted by Mexico-Canada import taxes
- The United States imports roughly 40% of the vehicles of the vehicles sold on its soil each year. These imports come primarily from Mexico and Canada, as the three former major American carmakers (GM, Ford, Chrysler) chose several decades ago to relocate part of their automotive production to these two countries. Mexico offers cheap labour, and Canada allows expansion of production congestion beyond Detroit, a city also close to Canada. Japanese carmakers established in the United States quickly followed the move.
- In 2024, out of 16 million new vehicles (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) sold in the United States, 6.4 million came from outside the country, including 2.36 million from Mexico, 1.16 million from Canada, 1.07 million from South Korea, 900,000 from Japan and 900,000 from Europe. These 6.4 million vehicles should therefore be subject to 25% additional tariff (on top of existing tariffs) from the Trump administration.
- The carmakers that import the most to the USA are the Toyota groups (1.09 million units in 2024), GM (1.05 million), Hyundai-Kia (0.87 million), Volkswagen (0.53 million), Honda (0.44 million) and Stellantis (0.41 million).
- But those that import the most from Mexico and Canada are the Toyota groups (0.75 million units), GM (0.69 million), Honda (0.44 million), Ford (0.37 million) and Stellantis (0.37 million).
- In total, 1.4 million GM, Ford, and Stellantis vehicles from Mexico and Canada would be affected by the 25% import tariffs, not to mention 1.6 million vehicles from Japanese carmakers from these two countries. The Trump administration's wish would, of course, be to relocate these 3 million vehicles to the United States, which could not be done in the rush and provided that carmakers agree to do so, which may lead to plants capacities reduction or even closures in Mexico and Canada.
Auto Shangai 2025: challenges: presentation of a large number of models in a strongly competitive market
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Auto Shangai 2025: challenges: presentation of a large number of models in a strongly competitive market
- The Auto Shanghai Show 2025 is bringing together 70 brands and around 100 new models, at the heart of a battle around battery electric and plug- in hybrid vehicles, which will represent half of the Chinese market in 2025. The BYD (6th largest group in the world), Geely (11th largest group in the world) and Chery (12th largest group in the world) groups will be the stars of the show. These camakers have quickly gained influence thanks to a strategy combining technological innovation, competitive prices, and large-scale production.
- By early 2025, Chinese carmakers will account for nearly 70% of China's car production and foreign carmakers, whose market share is shrinking a little more each year, want to rely on the 2025 Shanghai Motor Show to regain ground in the face of increasingly technological and bold Chinese competition. However, their position is weakened by the persistent price war and the rapid evolution of Chinese consumers' expectations. The Auto Shanghai Show therefore marks a strategic turning point. On one hand, Chinese brands like BYD are redoubling their efforts to impose new technological standards. On the other, foreign carmakers are trying to adapt to an ultra-competitive market, where constant launches of new products, rapid innovation and attractive prices are becoming essential.
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