The Chinese automobile market grew by 6.3% in the first half of 2024
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The Chinese automobile market grew by 6.3% in the first half of 2024
- The Chinese automobile market for passenger cars increased by 6.3% in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023, to 11,976,050 units compared to 11,268,226 (for the record: first half of 2023/first half of 2022 = +8.9%).
- However, the market is slowing down because at the end of April, we were still at +10.6% then 8.5% at the end of May. We could end the year at +3% or even +2.5%, at 26.7 or 26.8 million units.
- It was in April 2024 that BYD overtook the VW group for the first time, which had been the Chinese market leader for around thirty years. BYD occupies 13.4% of the Chinese market, while the German manufacturer only represents 10.6% of the market compared to 12% last year, 14% in 2021 and 19% in 2019. And the gap between BYD and VW has been growing steadily since April.
- The GM group, former number 2 in the Chinese market, falls to sixth place in 2024, with 5.4% of the market compared to 7.0% last year, supplanted by Geely (9.0%), Chery (8.7 %) and Changan (6.9%). The Japanese Toyota, Honda and Nissan are also declining, their cumulative share falling from 15.2% to 11.9%, while Tesla, BMW and Mercedes are still holding out.
- Other Chinese manufacturers represent 20.3% of the Chinese market, a stable market share compared to last year, which demonstrates that these manufacturers do not benefit from the same dynamism as BYD, Geely, Chery or Changan.
- China now represents 36% of the global automobile market.
Dongfeng will build an assembly plant in Italy
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Dongfeng will build an assembly plant in Italy
- Dongfeng is one of the major Chinese automobile manufacturers. It works chiefly with foreign manufacturers, such as Honda, Nissan, Kia, Renault and Stellantis.
- It was with PSA that Dongfeng began working with foreign manufacturers in 1992. Dongfeng was then called SAW, which means Second Automobile Works, this manufacturer having been the second Chinese manufacturer chronologically. The first Chinese carmaker chronologically is FAW (First Automobile Works) which still retains this name today. Hongqi (“red flag”), its flagship brand, used to produce prestige cars for the Chinese government and influential members of the Communist Party, modeled on the ZILs of the Soviet Union. Dongfeng has produced the Citroën ZX under the Fukang name for several decades while FAW has worked with Volkswagen, producing the Santana for a comparable period.
- Today, Dongfeng is in clear decline, facing much more dynamic Chinese manufacturers like BYD, Geely, Chery or Changan, having also lost a lot on the JV side with foreigners constantly retreating from the Chinese market.
- To revive its activity, Dongfeng made the decision to produce cars in Europe for this market. At the beginning of August, an agreement (MOU: Memo of understanding) was reportedly signed with the Italian government (MIMIT: Ministero delle Impresse e del Made in Italy) for the construction of an assembly plant in Italy.
- The Italian state could take a minority stake in Dongfeng on this occasion. Italy wishes to attract manufacturers other than Stellantis, which represents almost all of production in Italy, and intends to increase national automobile production in the short term to 1.3 million vehicles per year, compared to less than 800,000 in 2023. , which would return to the 2007 level. The country would also be in talks with other Chinese manufacturers, including Chery.
Mercedes will replace its EQC SUV with two different models
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Mercedes will replace its EQC SUV with two different models
- At the end of last year, Mercedes stopped manufacturing its 100% electric D-segment SUV, the EQC, which was the first model in the EQ range dedicated to electric vehicles from the Stuttgart manufacturer. The other models equipped with this type of engine continue their commercial career, such as the EQA, EQB, EQE, EQS, EQT and EQV.
- But the EQC will soon have descendants under two different bodies (like the EQE and EQS) since a new SUV will be launched in 2025 and a sedan in 2026. They will compete with the 100% electric sedans of D segment such as the BMW i4 and future Audi A4 E-Tron, as well as the Tesla Model 3 and BYD Seal.
- BMW plans to launch a second generation of the i3 in 2026 which will this time be derived from the 3 Series and which will compete – like the BMW i4 – with the future Mercedes EQC sedan. In 2026, Mercedes and BMW will each have a complete and well-developed range of 100% electric vehicles, with BMW offering the i3, i4, i5, i7 sedans and the iX, iX1, iX2, iX3 SUVs.
- Audi, for its part, only includes a sedan (A6 E-Tron) and three SUVs (Q4 E-Tron, Q6 E-Tron, Q8 E-Tron) in its range, but it plans to develop its range between 2024 and 2030.
- While the future compact electric Mercedes (CLA, GLA, GLB) will use the MMA platform presented on the “CLA Concept”, the EQC will have a new MB.EA base dedicated to medium and larger BEVs. Modular in propulsion or all-wheel drive, with one electric unit per axle, this engine will allow powers ranging from 250 hp to 500 hp. The EQC will be entitled to the new engine called eATS 2.0 and coupled to a 100 kWh NCM battery.
BEVs do not exceed 4% of the European car parc (vehicles in-use) in 2024
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BEVs do not exceed 4% of the European car parc (vehicles in-use) in 2024
- Inovev has estimated the share of BEVs in the car parc (vehicles in use) of the eight European countries which buy the most BEVs (in volume), i.e. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. These eight countries alone represent 80% of BEV sales in Europe in the first half of 2024.
- To make these estimates, Inovev calculated, from the sales of the last 15 years, the parc of BEVs and put it in perspective with the parc of cars whatever their motorization. Calculation was made for each of the eight countries here above.
- The results are surprising:
• While the average BEV sales in Europe have been around 14-16% since 2022 and Norway purchased 54% of BEVs in 2020, 65% in 2021, 79% in 2022, 82% in 2023 and 85% in 2024, the European fleet (30 countries = EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) in July 2024 only includes 4% BEVs and 30% in Norway, the country which has the highest proportion of BEVs in circulation.
• Behind Norway, the three countries with the highest proportion of BEVs in their vehicle parc are Sweden (8%), the Netherlands (7%) and Denmark (6%). Germany and France are behind with a proportion of 4% of BEVs in their vehicle fleet (which is the European average), ahead of the United Kingdom (3%) and Belgium (3%). All other European countries have less than 3% BEV in their fleet.
Several Stellantis Group brands could be stopped in the long term
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Several Stellantis Group brands could be stopped in the long term
- The management of the Stellantis group (the world's fourth largest carmaker), which includes 14 different brands, has suggested that those that are not profitable will eventually be eliminated.
- The euphoric period that took place following the merger between the PSA group (Peugeot, Citroën, DS, Opel, Vauxhall) and the FCA group (Fiat, Alfa-Roméo, Lancia, Maserati, Abarth, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram) in 2021 is no longer the same today. While the management of Stellantis stated that none of the brands making up the group would be eliminated and that everything would be done to develop these brands, the position has completely changed in 2024.
- Since 2021, in fact, the European automobile market has not returned to its pre-Covid levels, with this market representing almost half of the group's sales (44%). On the other hand, Chinese carmakers are making progress in this market and the production of their models in Europe will accelerate the movement.
- Recent statements on the search for lowering manufacturing cost and the possibility of closing several low-productivity assembly plants had already shown Stellantis' desire for maximum profitability.
- In this context, the group's brands most threatened would be Maserati (which could be sold), Abarth, DS and Lancia, whose market shares are extremely small. On the American market (26% of the group's sales), the Chrysler and Dodge brands have very low development potential and the resurrection of these brands seems very costly compared to the expected gains. The future of these six brands therefore seems to be in suspense today.
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