Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year in Europe of the new MG ZS SUV
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Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year in Europe of the new MG ZS SUV
- MG (a subsidiary of the Chinese group SAIC) has unveiled the second generation of its B-segment SUV, the ZS. The replacement of this model is crucial for the carmaker because since 2020 it has been the best-selling Chinese model in Europe. Thus, 87,195 units were sold there in 2023, compared to 44,109 in 2022, 26,381 in 2021 and 15,994 in 2020. Over the first seven months of 2024, 60,493 units were sold there, which represents an annual rate of 100,000 units. In total, nearly 250,000 ZSs were sold in Europe between 2017 and July 2024.
- The new MG ZS is 11 cm longer than the old one (4.43 m versus 4.32 m), which corresponds to the dimensions of an SUV in the C segment and no longer in the B segment, like the old generation ZS.
- An important point is that the new MG ZS will not be available in a battery electric version like the old model (the BEV version represented 36% of ZS sales) but only in a 1.5 petrol version and in a 1.5 full-hybrid version seen on the recent MG 3. The replacement of the battery electric ZS will be completely different and based on the MG 4 C-segment sedan.
- The new MG ZS will be produced in China as before, but it is possible that it will be one day produced in Europe, when SAIC has decided where to build its future European factory. Inovev forecasts 100,000 sales per year of the MG ZS in Europe (EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) regardless of the mode of distribution in Europe, i.e. either through importation from China either through local production in Europe, or both. But a possible 38% surcharge on imported MGs could hamper the carmaker's sales.
Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new VW Transporter/Caravelle
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Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new VW Transporter/Caravelle
- Volkswagen has unveiled the seventh generation of the Transporter and Caravelle. These two new models (T7) intended for the transport of goods (Transporter) or the transport of passengers (Caravelle) take up the platform of the Ford Transit Custom which were recently unveiled, following the agreement between VW and Ford signed in 2020 on light utility vehicles.
- This agreement stipulated that the VW Amarok pick-up would take the platform and body of the Ford Ranger pick-up, that the Ford Connect would take the platform and body of the VW Caddy, and that the VW Transporter/Caravelle would take the platform and body Ford Transit Customs. This agreement stipulated that the production of the Ford Connect would be carried out at VW in Poland and that of the VW T7 at Ford in Turkey.
- This sharing project on LUVs was accompanied by an agreement on the use of Volkswagen's MEB platform by battery electric European Fords (primarily the Explorer and Capri).
- The new VW Transporter/Caravelle are equipped with a 2.0 liter diesel engine (TDI) delivering a choice of 110 hp (81kW), 150 hp (110 kW) or 170 hp (125 kW). A plug-in hybrid version (PHEV) delivering 232 hp (171 kW) will also be marketed. Finally, an electric motor will be added next year, in a 136 hp (100 kW), 218 hp (160 kW) or 286 hp (210 kW), which may compete the Volkswagen's ID Buzz model. The battery capacity will be 64 kWh. The new Transporter and Caravelle will be produced in Kocaeli, at a rate of 100,000 units per year, alongside the Ford Transit and Transit Custom. The transfer of Ford Couriers from Kocaeli to Craiova (in Romania) makes it possible to produce the VW Transporter and Caravelle in Kocaeli. The Hanover factory will therefore only produce the VW ID Buzz and the VW Multivan based on the MQB platform.
Toyota lowers its sales targets for BEVs
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Toyota lowers its sales targets for BEVs
- The Toyota group, which invested in battery electric vehicles much later than most other carmakers, particularly versus Chinese and European, is lowering its sales targets for fully electric vehicles. Until now, the world's leading carmaker expected one and a half million of its electric cars sold worldwide in 2026, but it has just announced that it is lowering its forecast to one million units due to the slowdown in the global electric vehicle market in 2024, despite a robust dynamic in China (BEVs represent 24% of the Chinese passenger car market). This new forecasts is equivalent to a 33% drop in Toyota's objectives, which had nevertheless unveiled a series of BEV concepts which were to be mass produced between 2025 and 2030. Today, sales of battery electric vehicles represent only 1.5% of Toyota's total sales, compared to 15% for BMW for example.
- Toyota remains a specialist and world leader of full-hybrid technology, with 2.2 million units sold over the first seven months of 2024 (i.e. 38% of Toyota's total sales).
- Despite the announcement of the reduction of its objectives for battery electric vehicles, Toyota intends to develop fuel cell technology (FCV) with the German group BMW which works for several years now on hydrogen cars. BMW has also scheduled the launch of an hydrogen car for 2028.
- Toyota and BMW will therefore work together on the future generation of fuel cell modules. There are currently 100,000 hydrogen vehicles on the road worldwide, including several thousand Toyota Mirai.
GM lowers its sales targets for BEVs
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GM lowers its sales targets for BEVs
- Following the end of the cooperation with Honda on the design, production and sales of battery electric vehicles, the GM group (fifth largest carmaker in the world) decided to continue its development in the electric technology on its own. The battery electric platform designed by GM and Honda will therefore have only seen two realizations at Honda and six at GM.
- This platform, called GM BEV3 by the American carmaker, which concerns vehicles from 4.75 m to 5.00 m, was supposed to be followed by the GM BEV2 platforms (vehicles from 4.50 m to 4.75 m) and GM BEV1 (vehicles from 4.25 m to 4.50 m), but the carmaker has decided to postpone these projects due to the lack of dynamism in the market of battery electric vehicles which tend to stagnate almost everywhere in the world, except in China.
- GM is revising its objective of producing one million battery electric vehicles in 2025. GM is also ending the Ultium brand which was to supposed to gather all activities linked to electric technology (models, platforms and battery cells). GM will also adjust its investments in the electric technology, due to lower demand than expected, favoring LFP batteries for current production and reserving NMC batteries for the Premium category (Cadillac).
- GM sold only 290,000 BEVs in China (with Wuling and Baojun) over the first eight months of 2024 and 60,000 in the United States, or 350,000 in total, which is equivalent to a volume of 525,000 over the year (8% of its production). And the sales decline in China (-29% over the first eight months of 2024) does not give any signs that the volume of its BEV sales will increase in 2025. In response to this difficult context, the carmaker is now announcing the return of a range of plug-in hybrid vehicles, without however calling into question its objective of a fully electric range for the entire group in 2035, which seems unrealistic.
SAIC Group is developing in Europe but declining in China
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SAIC Group is developing in Europe but declining in China
- The Chinese group SAIC (Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation) created in 1995 has quickly become the largest Chinese carmaker thanks to its GM and VW productions under license, surpassing the FAW (First Automobile Works) and SAW (Second Automobile Works) groups which became Dongfeng. But SAIC has also its own brands since 2005, most of which come from the former British group British Leyland, such as Roewe (derivated from Rover), MG and Maxus (derivated from LDV ex-Leyland DAF Vehicles).
- SAIC initially distributed its Roewe, MG and Maxus on the Chinese market but then decided to expand the scope of its sales to the European market. In Europe, MG has quickly become the best-selling Chinese brand, with 50,000 sales in 2021, 111,000 in 2022 and 230,000 in 2023, doubling its sales volume each year.
- SAIC has therefore acquired a favorable position in Europe, not to mention the 10,000 additional sales of Maxus in Europe in 2023.
- However, its position is less favorable in China, with a 17% drop in sales in the first seven months of 2024, a drop that is increasing from month to month, as it was -15% at the end of June, -14% at the end of May, -12% at the end of April. The negative gap between the sales volume in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the first seven months of 2023 is 100,000 units. And this gap must be placed in the context of a Chinese market that is currently occupied 63% by Chinese brands instead of 55% in 2023. SAIC's (MG-Roewe-Maxus) market share has thus gone from 4% of the Chinese market last year to 3% this year.
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