Inovev forecasts 20,000 units per year of the new BMW iX
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Inovev forecasts 20,000 units per year of the new BMW iX
- BMW has unveiled its new battery electric vehicle, an SUV based on the i-Next concept presented in November 2018. It is simply called iX, which could create confusion with the existing iX3. It might have been smarter to call it iX5 or iX7, or even i-Next.
- The BMW iX is in fact in the form of a large SUV (E segment), 4.90 m long and 1.80 m high, or dimensions close to that of an X5 or an X6.
- Obviously, the new model will be in terms of price at the top of the hierarchy of SUVs of the Bavarian brand, above 100,000 euros (an iX3 is already priced 70,000 euros).
- At this price, do not expect a large sales volume, probably around 20,000 units per year. It's not as good as an Audi E-Tron but better than a Mercedes EQC.
- On the technical side, the BMW iX adopts a new platform and engine. Two electric motors offer a combined power of more than 500 hp and the 100 kWh battery provides a range of 600 km, more than that of the Audi E-Tron (445 km) or the Tesla Model X (560 km), its main competitors. Note also the reintroduction of carbon fiber elements in the materials used on the body structure, which has not been seen in BMW since the 7 Series.
- The BMW iX will be on sale from autumn 2021 and will be produced at the German Dingolfingplant, alongside the 5 Series, 6 Series, 7 Series and 8 Series.
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Volkswagen postpones the construction of its assembly plant in Turkey
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Volkswagen postpones the construction of its assembly plant in Turkey
- The Volkswagen Group had initially planned to shift production of the Passat from the German factory in Emden to a factory in Turkey that the carmaker was planning to build. The German carmaker recently announced that it has decided to postpone the construction of the assembly plant to a later (unspecified) date. No reason given, but we can assume that the unstable local situation and the political conflict that seems to be playing out between Turkey and Europe as well as the risk of economic sanctions should have impacted VW decision. But other reasons linked to the expected volumes of the future Passat (which sales are continuously declining) may also explain why this future plant is no longer a priority and a necessary project.
- The future Volkswagen Passat, which should be launched in 2022, will therefore be produced at the group's plant in Bratislava, Slovakia, which today assembles the Volkswagen Touareg, Audi Q7, Audi Q8 and Porsche Cayenne E-segment SUVs, as well as small A-segment sedans, Volkswagen Up, Seat Mii and Skoda Citigo.
- From 2022, the Bratislava plant will produce the Volkswagen Passat as well as the next generation Skoda Superb scheduled for 2023.
It means that the small A-segment sedans (converted to electric powertrains) will be produced at another plant, probably in Emden. Volkswagen management has announced that this plant will undergo a transformation by 2022 as the Zwickau plant had experienced before the arrival of ID3 and ID4 in 2020.
It means that the small A-segment sedans (converted to electric powertrains) will be produced at another plant, probably in Emden. Volkswagen management has announced that this plant will undergo a transformation by 2022 as the Zwickau plant had experienced before the arrival of ID3 and ID4 in 2020.
- Therefore, we can foresee a production of battery electric models in Emden, which can only be the future ID1 and ID2. As for the new generations of E-segment SUVs, they will be transferred from Bratislava to the German plant in Hanover, which will also produce the future electric Kombi (known today as ID Buzz).
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Which European countries were most impacted by the drop in production in 2020?
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Which European countries were most impacted by the drop in production in 2020?
- European automobile production (29 countries) fell by 30% over the 10 months of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019. The decline reached 31.1% for passenger cars, while it is lower for light utility vehicles (-24.8%). This last figure should be compared with -23.7% of LUV sales in Europe over the first nine months of 2020.
- Regarding passenger cars, the 29.3% drop in the European passenger car market indicates that in-stock sales and lower exports played a role in the European production volume decline.
- France is the most affected European country by the drop in production (-47%), because in addition to the consequences of the spring 2020 lock down, France has suffered greatly from the transfer to Spain of the Peugeot 2008, the transfer of the Renault Clio in Slovenia, the transfer of the Peugeot 208 to Slovakia and the transfer of the Opel Grandland to Germany. Relocation therefore amplified the phenomenon of the French declining production. In addition, the Peugeot 308 and Renault Kangoo are at the end of their commercial career, with their replacement scheduled for 2021. As a result, France has fallen behind the Czech Republic in 2020.
- Britain (-36%) continues to suffer from Brexit uncertainty. Austria recorded a decrease of 32% but on small volumes. Germany shows a decline of 31% comparable to Europe as a whole. Spain (-25%) and Italy (-25%) benefit from the arrival of new models in their factories (Peugeot 2008 in Spain and Jeep Compass in Italy). Belgium (-1%) achieved the best performance thanks to good sales performance of Volvo XC40 and Audi E-Tron, but also on small volumes.
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Evolution of the European market by type of engine in 2020
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Evolution of the European market by type of engine in 2020
- The share of diesel continues to decline sharply on the European market, as today this share has fallen to 27% of all passenger car registrations in 2020, while it was still 32% in 2019, 36 % in 2018, 45% in 2017, 50% in 2016 and 55% in 2012.
- Diesel has therefore lost 28 points in eight years, which have not been offset by the increase in alternative engines (hybrids, plug-in hybrids, 100% electric) since these now represent only 21% of registrations, despite strong growth recorded over the past two or three years.
- Among this 21%, hybrid powertrains (HEV) represent 12% of sales in 2020, mainly made by Toyota, Lexus, Hyundai and Kia. Plug-in hybrid powertrains (PHEV) represent 4% of sales in 2020, mainly made by Premium brands. Finally, the 100% electric engine (BEV) represents 5% of sales in 2020, produced mainly by Renault and Tesla, but many competitors are starting to ramp up (Volkswagen, Hyundai, Peugeot, Opel, etc.).
- The crucial question is how far the decline in diesel will go. Some foresee the end of diesel in 2030 in passenger car registrations but is this a possible scenario? And will diesel remain in the utility vehicle categories? The future of Diesel remains very uncertain in Europe, not necessarily because of city policies because very few large European cities have announced the ban on diesel in their cities, but rather future anti-pollution standards (EURO VII) which could impose carmakers to no longer produce pure thermal vehicles.
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The UK plans to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2030. What consequences for the market of new cars?
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The UK plans to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2030. What consequences for the market of new cars?
- The UK plans to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engine as early as 2030, five years ahead of the previously deadline announced. This ban would apply to gasoline and diesel cars, followed by hybrids and plug-in hybrids five years later, in 2035.
- The UK car market over ten months 2020 is made up as follows: 1,384,601 cars including 100,160 HEV, 75,325 BEV and 44,046 PHEV representing a proportion of 16% xEVsand 84% petrol and diesel engines (1,165 070 units). British car production, which reached 780,000 cars in 10 months of 2020, produced only 125,000 hybrid and electric cars, accounting for 16% of all car production in the country. We can see that the proportion of cars with thermal engines is largely the majority in the country and that it will not be easy to replace all these cars with electric cars in ten or fifteen years, in terms of sales or production.
- The British car park is currently composed of 31.8 million cars of which 18.8 million run on gasoline and 12.3 million on diesel. The remains (685,000 units) is made up of hybrid (515,000 units), plug-in hybrids (80,000 units) and electric (90,000 units) cars.
- The United Kingdom has announced a change to this calendar, going from 2035 to 2030, after announcing last February that it was going from 2040 to 2035. So in 9 months, the calendar has accelerated by 5 years….and consequently raises doubts about the reliability of this calendar.
- Nevertheless, if this schedule is confirmed, there is a strong risk that the market will fall very sharply for at least 3-4 years after 2030. Indeed, if the ban on sales of combustion vehicles is applied but that at the same time, owners of thermal cars will be able to continue to circulate, it can be expected that buyers (professionals or individuals) will anticipate purchases of thermal vehicles before 2030 or delay the replacement of their existing vehicles to a period beyond of 2030. This could be even more true if the conditions for a real growth of the BEV market are not met by 2030 (numerous recharging infrastructure + purchase price of electric vehicles equivalent to thermal vehicles).
- Are we going to a sharp decline of the UK market in 2030? The example of the Norwegian market (end of sales of thermal vehicles in 2025) will be interesting to analyse, even though the Norwegian market is already today at 50% in BEV and 70% in BEV + PHEV.
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