The US market for passenger cars and pickup trucks grew by 1.7% in 2025
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The US market for passenger cars and pickup trucks grew by 1.7% in 2025
- The US passenger car market (sedans, coupes, SUVs and minivans) including pickup trucks (which represent 20% of the total market) increased by 1.7% in 2025 compared to 2024, to 16,221,873 units compared to 15,954,040.
- The GM group remains the leader in the US market, with a market share of 18% in 2025, up one point compared to 2024. The Toyota group remains second, with a market share of 16%, up one point compared to 2024. The Japanese carmaker, the world's leading carmaker, is ahead of Ford (13%) and Hyundai-Kia (11%), whose market share gained half a point. The market share of the other carmakers in the Top 10 all declined.
- This is particularly true for Stellantis, which has fallen from 9% to 8% of the US market due to a drop in sales last year, a decline that has been consistent since 2018—well before Stellantis was created in 2021, formalizing the merger of FCA and PSA. All the group's brands (Chrysler, Dodge , Ram, Jeep) are declining, but Dodge has fallen the most (-28%) with the premature discontinuation of the Charger sedan and Challenger coupe, replaced by an battery electric Charger that failed to gain traction. Once the third-largest carmaker in the United States, the former Chrysler group has gradually fallen to sixth place, overtaken first by Toyota, then by Hyundai-Kia, and finally by Honda.
- Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Volkswagen, and Tesla each lose half a percentage point of market share in 2025 compared to 2024. Honda has a 9% market share, Nissan 6%, Subaru 4%, Volkswagen 4%, and Tesla 3%. BMW and Mercedes follow.
The Russian passenger car market has declined by 15.7% by 2025
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The Russian passenger car market has declined by 15.7% by 2025
- The Russian passenger car (PC) market contracted by 15.7% in 2025, to 1,306,299 units compared to 1,550,249 in 2024. This decline is likely a consequence of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which is prompting Russia (even though it is not yet operating under a full-blown war economy) to prioritize military needs over civilian requirements. The Russian light utility vehicle (LUV) market also contracted, declining by 23.8%, to 104,980 units compared to 137,734 in 2024, for the same reasons as the passenger car market.
- The best-selling passenger car brand in Russia in 2025 was Lada, part of the AvtoVAZ group (330,357 units; -24.8%), although its sales declined more sharply than the overall market, indicating that some of its customers switched to Chinese brands. Its market share fell from 28% in 2024 to 25% in 2025.
- The remaining 75% is largely monopolized by Chinese brands, which hold 60% of the Russian market in 2025 (786,737 units). European, Japanese, American, and Korean brands account for 15% of sales, but it is likely that a significant portion of these sales also originate from China, as these brands officially refused to sell their cars in Russia after the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. The hypothesis that many European, Japanese, American, and Korean models are imported through Chinese dealerships therefore remains highly probable (evidence of this is that Volkswagen Group's Jetta models are sold in Russia, even though this brand only produces its models in China).
Relative success of the VW ID3, ID4, ID5, ID7 in Europe
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Relative success of the VW ID3, ID4, ID5, ID7 in Europe
- The battery electric vehicle market in Europe (30 countries: EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) grew by 29% in 2025 compared to 2024, rising from 1,993,102 units in 2024 to 2,579,209 units in 2025. This represents 19.5% of the European market (compared to 15.5% in 2024), significantly exceeding the 18% forecast a few months ago. Strong demand for battery electric cars in the final months of the year boosted the European BEV market during this period.
- Volkswagen's battery electric vehicles benefited relatively from the strong growth in BEV sales in the European market in 2025, with production of the ID.3, ID.4, ID.5, and ID.7 increasing by 43% compared to 2024, reaching 266,000 units versus 186,000 in 2024 (an increase of 80,000 units year-on-year). However, a closer look reveals that the ID.7 accounted for more than half of this growth (an increase of 42,500 units). And these four models together represent less than 2% of the BEV market in Europe in 2025.
- It is clear that the battery electric Volkswagens are not achieving their initial sales targets in Europe, namely 100,000 sales per year for each of these four models, or 400,000 sales for the whole, a quantity which represents half of the annual sales of the Volkswagen Golf during its best years.
- It is possible that the overly geometric design of the models as well as their name are partly responsible for sales not meeting initial targets, as the carmaker has announced that it will return to a more classic design for the brand's future 100% electric models which it will rename with more traditional names, such as ID Polo, ID Cross or ID Golf.
Premium: German carmakers still lead, but new entrants are on the rise
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Premium: German carmakers still lead, but new entrants are on the rise
- BMW remains the world's leading premium carmaker in 2025. The brand sold 2.17 million vehicles last year, a 1.4% decrease compared to 2024, due to a sharp drop in sales in China (-14.2%), where it faces stiff competition from new Chinese premium brands. Of the 536,163 vehicles sold in China, BMW imported 21,439 units, with the remainder produced domestically.
- Mercedes remains the second largest premium carmaker in 2025. The brand delivered 1.81 million vehicles (excluding commercial vehicles), representing a decrease of 9.6% compared to 2024. This decline is explained by a drop in its sales in China (-19.8%) where the brand sold 472,799 vehicles, of which 33,988 were imported, the rest being produced in China.
- Audi remains the third largest premium carmaker in 2025. Audi delivered 1.62 million vehicles last year (-2.9% compared to 2024) including 617,514 in China (33,726 imported, the rest being produced in China), representing a decrease of 2.7% compared to 2024.
- By comparison, Lexus sold 882,000 vehicles in 2025 and Volvo 710,000 vehicles. Next come the Chinese premium brands and Porsche, which sold fewer than 300,000 cars in 2025.
- The three major German premium brands (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) are facing increasing competition in China from Chinese premium brands that didn't even exist ten years ago. Hongqi and Xiaomi are already approaching 500,000 sales each by 2025 – having thus overtaken the American brand Cadillac – and other Chinese brands are developing rapidly in this category, four of them having overtaken the American brand Lincoln last year.
- The arrival of these Chinese premium brands in Europe could boost their sales, which will further weaken the position of traditional premium brands, such as BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Porsche and Land Rover.
Failure of the VW ID3, ID4, ID6, ID7 in China
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Failure of the VW ID3, ID4, ID6, ID7 in China
- The battery electric vehicle market in China grew by 19% in 2025 compared to 2024, rising from 7,037,467 units in 2024 to 8,395,281 units in 2025, representing 28% of the Chinese market (compared to 25.5% in 2024), which is roughly in line with projections from a few months ago. There was an anticipation of purchases of 100% electric cars during the last months of the year which boosted the Chinese BEV market during this period. Indeed, the Chinese government has decided to increase taxes on electric vehicles and drastically reduce purchase incentives from January 1, 2026.
- Despite this strong growth in BEV sales on the Chinese market in 2025, production of battery electric Volkswagens collapsed last year, to 67,500 units compared to 173,500 in 2024 (which represents a drop of 60%).
- These are the ID.3, ID.4, ID.6, and ID.7 models, which are produced in China (the ID.5 is not produced in China). Together, these four models represent less than 1% of the BEV market in China in 2025.
- It's clear that Volkswagen's battery electric vehicles are struggling in China against models from local brands, and the German carmaker will have to completely overhaul its electric vehicle strategy for the Chinese market. Volkswagen is expected to cease production of these four models in China by 2026 and collaborate with a local carmaker, as Audi recently did with SAIC. It appears that projects with XPeng are already well underway (see VW ID. UNYX 07).
- It is certain that the decline in Volkswagen sales in China, which has been constant for several years, is mainly due to the carmaker's difficulties in establishing itself in the promising BEV market in that country.
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