Italian market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
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Italian market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
- Over the first nine months of 2015, the Italian car market experienced a 14.9% increase. However, the expected volume in 2015 is still far from the figures reached before 2011.
- GDP growth is expected to rise to 1.4% in 2016 and 2017. The labour market is improving, helping to drive private consumption higher. However, bank credit remains constrained due to the large and still rising amount of non-performing loans, hampering investment growth. Sluggish export market growth is hindering exports.
- For 2016, the growth of the Italian automotive market should continue to be strong, but in smaller proportions than in 2015. Inovev expects less than 8% of increase for the coming next year.
- Following new models, to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the Italian market during the year, are worthy to mention: new Fiat Bravo (produced in Turkey), new Fiat Punto (produced in Poland), new Alfa Giulia and future Alfa SUV (if it is not delayed again), new Ford Fiesta, Citroen C3 and VW Polo that still positions itself in good position in the ranking of best selling cars in Italy. However, Inovev does not forecast real sales growth of the Fiat 500, whose facelifted version (slightly) just started. Finally, in 2016, Lancia will sell only one model, the Ypsilon, which will gradually increase in sales, however only in Italy.
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H1 2015 Sales in Malaysia: Down 3.3 Percent
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H1 2015 Sales in Malaysia: Down 3.3 Percent
- Malaysia's automobile sales volume in the first six months of 2015 dropped 3.3 percent compared to the same period of 2014 to 322,184 units. Increased household expenses due to the introduction of a new tax on goods, cooled down consumer sentiment. In addition, economic slowdown and stricter automobile loan regulations further weakened the market.
- The passenger car (PC) segment fell 3.5 percent to 286,533 units, while utility vehicles declined two percent to 35,651 units. In the PC segment, while passenger cars, MPCs and passenger vans dropped, SUVs realized a significant rise, up 58.7 percent. The driver of SUV growth was the Honda HR-V which entered the market in February 2015.
- Looking at sales by brand, Perodua and Honda excelled, while Proton and Toyota declined. Perodua increased 14.8 percent to 108,502 units, boosting market share 5.3pp to 33.7 percent. The Axia performed especially well, selling some 54,000 units. Year-round sales of Perodua in 2015 are aimed to exceed 200,000 units. Proton dropped 20.4 percent to 50,206 units. Due to poor results of the Iriz, which was released in the second half of 2014, the brand's share declined 3.3pp to 15.6 percent. Honda went up 17.2 percent to 43,596 units, improving share 2.4pp to 13.5 percent and surpassing Toyota to become top carmaker among foreign brands. Strong sales are the result of robust performance of the City and Jazz and the launch of the HR-V which pushed up SUV sales 2.8 fold. In contrast, Toyota decreased 24.1 percent to 38,796 units, posting a decline of all automobile types.
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In China, carmakers are pushing forward their capacity expansion projects
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In China, carmakers are pushing forward their capacity expansion projects
- Despite operating ratio declining for the past five years, carmakers are pushing forward their capacity expansion projects. In particular, Chinese carmakers are planning to increase capacity by 12.2 million units to 34.93 million by 2020, of which the top three, namely BAIC, Changan and SAIC, are planning to boost capacity by 2.59 million, 1.12 million and 1.1 million units respectively. Europeans are planning to raise capacity by 4.27 million units to 9.52 million units by 2020, of which VW's capacity expansion goal is 2.4 million units. As for Japanese carmakers capacity is intended to be increased 2.07 million units to 6.24 million units by 2020, of which combined capacity expansion volume of Nissan, Toyota and Honda is 1.3 million units.
- Meanwhile, there has been rising concern about overcapacity in recent years, prompting carmakers to take countermeasures. Dongfeng Motor has postponed new capacity expansion projects since 2013 and transferred production of Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen's Peugeot 2008 to Dongfeng Motor passenger car Company in an effort to improve operating ratio of the facility. Meanwhile, Changan Automobile transferred production of the new Benni to Changan Suzuki in 2015, and production of the Eado EV is planned to be manufactured by Changan PSA.
- In the medium to long term, overcapacity is expected to worsen, making it necessary to carry out further consolidation of the automotive industry. The first sign of this trend was the acquisition of Hafei Motor's Harbin plant by Ford in March 2015 with an aim to set up Changan Ford's first factory in northeast China.
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UK market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
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UK market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
- During the first nine months of 2015, the increase in the British car market has already reached 8.2% .
- According to the OECD, the economic growth is planned to continue at a robust pace over the coming two years, driven by domestic demand. House prices have continued to rise, although housing supply is edging up. The unemployment rate has stabilised at around 5.5%, and recently wage growth has picked up. However, weak global trade and past currency appreciation are holding back exports.
- Despite good economic indicators, growth of British car market is expected to be lower in 2016 than 2015 ( increase of less than 2%).
- Following new models, to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the British market during the year, are worthy to mention: Ford Fiesta, which positions itself traditionally among the two best selling cars in this market., Vauxhall Astra (rebranded version of the Opel Astra), launched in late 2015, which can also be one of the novelties that can boost the British market, since it is traditionally among the top five best selling car in this market.
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French market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
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French market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
- 2015 year seems - at last - to herald a marked recovery of French automotive market. Indeed, in the first nine months of the year, the volume of registrations (PC + LUV) has experienced an increase of 5.4% compared to the same period in 2014. Inovev expects a 5% increase over 2015.
- Economic growth is planned to rise gradually to 1.3% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017, as a result of lower oil prices, less fiscal contraction and cumulative effects of sustained monetary stimulus. However, declining house prices and weak business confidence are continuing to weigh on investment, and unemployment will decline only slightly.
- Consequently, Inovev expects in 2016 a slighter increase (around 2%) of the automotive market than in 2015.
- Following French new models - to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the market during the year- are worthy to mention: Citroën C3, Citroën C3 Picasso, Peugeot 3008, Peugeot 5008, Renault Mégane, Renault Scénic and Renault Talisman (to be launched at the end of 2015).
The introduction of the new Nissan Micra which will be produced in France (Flins) could also boost sales of the brand, even if this model is planned only for the end of 2016.
The introduction of the new Nissan Micra which will be produced in France (Flins) could also boost sales of the brand, even if this model is planned only for the end of 2016.
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