All Australian production will cease in 2017
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All Australian production will cease in 2017
- Australian production has continuously declined over the last ten years. Today only three major car producers manufacture in Australia: Toyota, General-Motors (Holden) and Ford. Mitsubishi ended its industrial activity in 2008. Ford will pull out in 2016, and the remaining two have decided they will cease activities in 2017.
- These manufacturers are leaving Australia as the country is no longer a competitive base. Wages in the Australian automobile industry are among the highest in the developed world and cannot compete with the wages of its South-East Asian neighbours. Holden, which produces fewer than 80 000 cars a year at its factory in Adelaide, estimates that the difference between production at its Australian site and the average for its other sites 3750 dollars per car. Australia is the second most expensive country for the production of car parts, mainly due to its geographical location.
- Besides this, the cost advantage of producing cars domestically is weak due to the low tariff barriers imposed on imports. And finally, manufacturers are faced with a relatively modest local market (just over a million new cars bought each year) which is very competitive, exports little, and is not an attractive location to set up a factory.
- Hence the progressive increase in imports over the last ten years, from 600 000 units in 2005 to 900 000 in 2015. Following the closure of Australian factories in 2016 and 2017, local registrations will consist only of imported vehicles, mainly from South-East Asia, Korea and Japan.
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Overview of the South African market in 2015
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Overview of the South African market in 2015
- The South African automobile market shrank by 4.2% in 2015, to a volume of 0.59 million vehicles (PC+LUV). However, the market remains in a good position in comparison to the last ten years, as it has had difficulty reaching the milestone of of 600 000 vehicles.
- A large share of the South African market is occupied by pickup trucks. These represent 25% of sales in South Africa each year, a greater portion than SUV sales (17%). Sedans represent just over 50% of the market.
- By manufacturer, the Toyota Group (20.3% of the market, -5.0%) remains the leader in the South African market, ahead of the Volkswagen Group (16.8% of the market, -8.5%), Ford (13.3% of the market, +10.4%), Renault-Nissan (11.6% of the market, +4.5%), Hyundai-Kia (9.8% of the market, -11.4%), GM (6.4% of the market, -10.7%), Daimler (4.3% of the market, -13.1%), BMW (4.0% of the market, -11.2%), Isuzu (2.8% of the market, +5.3%) and Honda (1.9% of the market, +8.8%). The most significant growth in the market has been from Ford and Honda. Hyundai-Kia, GM, Daimler and BMW saw the largest decreases in their sales.
- The ten best-selling models in the South African market in 2015 were the following: Toyota Hilux (35 684 vehicles), Ford Ranger (33 916), VW Polo Vivo (31 384), VW Polo (24 573), Toyota Corolla (23 542), Nissan NP200 (18 124), Chevrolet Pickup (16 341), Isuzu D-Max (16 318), Toyota Etios (16 270) and Mercedes C Class (12 562). Three Toyota models figure among the top 10, but the most striking statistic is the presence of five pickup trucks in the top 10. The Nissan NP200 is a compact pickup truck based on the Dacia Logan. The Chevrolet Utility is a compact pickup truck which competes with the Nissan NP200 and is known in other regions by the name Montana.
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Overview of the Australian market in 2015
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Overview of the Australian market in 2015
- The Australian automobile market grew by 3.8% in 2015, to a volume of 1.12 million vehicles (passenger vehicles and light utility vehicles), which is a new record for this market.SUVs represented 36.5% of sales in 2015, versus 32.5% in 2014. In addition to this, sedans accounted for 46% of sales in 2015, compared to 49% in 2014. Sales of pickup trucks remained stable at 10% of the market.
- By brand, Toyota (18.3% of the market, +1.0%) remains the leader in the Australian market, well ahead of Mazda (10.2% of the market, +13.2%), Holden-GM (9.2% of the market, -3.0%), Hyundai (9.1% of the market, +2.0%), Mitsubishi (6.4% of the market, +4.5%), Ford (6.3% of the market, -11.6%), Nissan (5.9% of the market, +0.1%), Volkswagen (5.4% of the market, +9.9%), Subaru (3.9% of the market, +7.6%) and Honda (3.6% of the market, +21.5%). Of these ten brands, only two American brands (Holden and Ford) saw their sales decrease in the Australian market last year. This market is becoming progressively Japanese-dominated (Japanese brands accounted for 48% of sales last year, compared to 47% the year before).
- The ten best-selling models in the Australian market in 2015 were the following: Toyota Corolla (42 073 vehicles), Mazda 3 (38 644), Toyota Hilux (35 161), Hyundai i30 (32 306), Ford Ranger (29 185), Holden Commodore (27 770), Toyota Camry (27 654), Mitsubishi L200 (25 338), Mazda CX5 (25 136) and Volkswagen Golf (22 662). Of these ten models, five are manufactured domestically (Corolla, Camry, Hilux, Ranger, Commodore), but will no longer be from 2018 onwards as all Australian automobile factories will cease operations at the end of 2017. Three pickup models figure among the ten best-selling models in Australia (Hilux, Ranger, L200).
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BMW will produce 1.5 million models with its CLAR platform per year.
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BMW will produce 1.5 million models with its CLAR platform per year.
- The BMW group has created a new modular platform (named CLAR), which will be shared by all its RWD models (available initially for the latest 7 Series, then for future 5 Series, 3 Series, 4 Series and 6 Series models) as well as for future SUVs (X3, X4, X5, X6), and for future Rolls-Royce models.
- This new shared platform is the second by the BMW group after its UKL platform, and is used in all front wheel drive models (Mini, Active Tourer, Gran Tourer, X1, as well as in future 1 Series, 2 Series and X2).
- Almost a million models with these platforms are set to be manufactured with UKL and almost 1.5 million with CLAR. BMW's aim is to sell 2.5 million vehicles globally each year (compared to 2.25 million in 2015).
- Modular platforms, which streamline vehicle parts and significantly decrease vehicle weight, have been developed rapidly by large manufacturers over recent years. The platforms in use today are MQB (transverse), MLB (longitudinal) and MSB (to-of-the-range) by Volkswagen, CMF by Renault-Nissan (mid-size models), CMP1 (small models) and EMP2 (mid-size models) by PSA Peugeot-Citroën, MFA (FWD) and MRA (RWD) by Mercedes, CMA (compact models) and SPA (large models) by Volvo.
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Production forecasts in the USA in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in the USA in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- Since 2009, automobile production in USA has risen steadily, reaching 12.2 million units in 2015, a level already achieved in 2005. This increase in US production has supported the uninterrupted growth of the US market since 2009.
- In 2016, Inovev remains cautious, because on one hand, the US market is expected to slow down after several years of strong growth that have actually caught up with the sales lost since 2005, and secondly,the US market now benefits Mexican production more than it benefits production in the US, since car production in Mexico has more than doubled between 2005 and 2015, while at the same time, US production has not increased.
- Finally, American brand vehicles (initially Buick models) will begin to be exported from China to the United States,from spring 2016, which will have a negative impact on US production. The new strategy of the GM group is encouraged by Chinese authorities who observe with great concern the decline in car exports from China (-20% in 2015 and even -30% in the first two months of 2016).
- Result of these three parameters,Inovev expects a stabilization or slight decline in US production in 2016 compared to 2015.It should therefore record a volume of about 12 million units, little different from the volume recorded in 2015.
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Read more... Production forecasts in the USA in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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