Spanish market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
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Spanish market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
- For the first nine months of 2015, the Spanish automobile market has increased by 24%. The market may reach 1.2 million units this year and 1.3 million in 2016. However, it is still far from the figures for 2005-2006-2007 where the market was close to 1.8 million units.
- According to OECD, a robust economic recovery in Spain is planned to continue in 2016 and 2017, though at a gradually slowing pace. However the positive impact of euro depreciation, and lower oil and other commodity prices, will gradually dissipate. Borrowing rates for businesses and households will also continue to be low. These factors, together with the implementation of significant structural reforms, are increasing business confidence.
- For 2016, the Spanish automotive market will depend on the PIVE plan status (to be maintained or not), and its stopping date if UK government decides to stop it. In the case that the PIVE plan is stopped, Inovev forecasts a 7% increase of the market in 2016.
- Following new models, to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the Spanish market during the year, are worthy to mention : Ford Fiesta, Opel Astra (launched at the end of 2015), Renault Megane (locally produced), VW Polo (locally produced) and Seat Ibiza (locally produced).
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H1 2015 Sales in Thailand: Down 16.3 Percent
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H1 2015 Sales in Thailand: Down 16.3 Percent
- Thailand's automobile sales volume in the first six months of 2015 went down 16.3 percent to 369,109 units. Rising household debt, after-effect of spiking sales in 2012-2013 and economic slowdown due to recent drought resulted in the shrinkage of the automobile market. The passenger car (PC) segment fell 20.1 percent to 146,862 units, while utility vehicles declined 13.6percent to 222,247 units. The volume-selling small passenger car, PPC and one-ton pickup truck segments fell double digits. In contrast, SUVs rose 22.3 percent to 26,980 units. Strong SUV sales were driven by the launch of the Honda HR-V in November 2014.
- Apart from Honda which realized double-digit increase, all other top brands declined. Toyota dropped 24.9 percent to123,125 units. The fully-remodeled Hilux, launched in May 2015, is expected to sell 164,200 units in 2015. Isuzu declined 16.7 percent to 69,281 units. Honda increased 15.9 percent to 54,793 units, driven by the HR-V, released in November 2014. Mazda decreased 1.8 percent to 16,837 units. Significant decline of one-ton pickup trucks wascounterbalanced by the Mazda2 launched in January 2015. Other major brands, namely Nissan, Mitsubishi, Ford and Chevrolet dropped double digits.
- Looking at market forecast for 2015, Toyota projected a four percent increase to 920,000 in the beginning of the year; however, sluggish results in the first half of the year prompted the Japanese automaker in July to revise its forecast to below 800,000 units, setting a low annual figure for the first time in four years. If the upper limit were set at 800,000 units, passenger cars would account for 300,000 units (down 18.9 percent) and utility vehicles for 500,000 units (down 2.3 percent), of which one-ton pickup trucks would account for 390,000 units (up 4.8 percent).
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H1 2015 Sales in Malaysia: Down 3.3 Percent
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H1 2015 Sales in Malaysia: Down 3.3 Percent
- Malaysia's automobile sales volume in the first six months of 2015 dropped 3.3 percent compared to the same period of 2014 to 322,184 units. Increased household expenses due to the introduction of a new tax on goods, cooled down consumer sentiment. In addition, economic slowdown and stricter automobile loan regulations further weakened the market.
- The passenger car (PC) segment fell 3.5 percent to 286,533 units, while utility vehicles declined two percent to 35,651 units. In the PC segment, while passenger cars, MPCs and passenger vans dropped, SUVs realized a significant rise, up 58.7 percent. The driver of SUV growth was the Honda HR-V which entered the market in February 2015.
- Looking at sales by brand, Perodua and Honda excelled, while Proton and Toyota declined. Perodua increased 14.8 percent to 108,502 units, boosting market share 5.3pp to 33.7 percent. The Axia performed especially well, selling some 54,000 units. Year-round sales of Perodua in 2015 are aimed to exceed 200,000 units. Proton dropped 20.4 percent to 50,206 units. Due to poor results of the Iriz, which was released in the second half of 2014, the brand's share declined 3.3pp to 15.6 percent. Honda went up 17.2 percent to 43,596 units, improving share 2.4pp to 13.5 percent and surpassing Toyota to become top carmaker among foreign brands. Strong sales are the result of robust performance of the City and Jazz and the launch of the HR-V which pushed up SUV sales 2.8 fold. In contrast, Toyota decreased 24.1 percent to 38,796 units, posting a decline of all automobile types.
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Italian market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
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Italian market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
- Over the first nine months of 2015, the Italian car market experienced a 14.9% increase. However, the expected volume in 2015 is still far from the figures reached before 2011.
- GDP growth is expected to rise to 1.4% in 2016 and 2017. The labour market is improving, helping to drive private consumption higher. However, bank credit remains constrained due to the large and still rising amount of non-performing loans, hampering investment growth. Sluggish export market growth is hindering exports.
- For 2016, the growth of the Italian automotive market should continue to be strong, but in smaller proportions than in 2015. Inovev expects less than 8% of increase for the coming next year.
- Following new models, to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the Italian market during the year, are worthy to mention: new Fiat Bravo (produced in Turkey), new Fiat Punto (produced in Poland), new Alfa Giulia and future Alfa SUV (if it is not delayed again), new Ford Fiesta, Citroen C3 and VW Polo that still positions itself in good position in the ranking of best selling cars in Italy. However, Inovev does not forecast real sales growth of the Fiat 500, whose facelifted version (slightly) just started. Finally, in 2016, Lancia will sell only one model, the Ypsilon, which will gradually increase in sales, however only in Italy.
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UK market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
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UK market Forecast for 2016 (PC+LUV)
- During the first nine months of 2015, the increase in the British car market has already reached 8.2% .
- According to the OECD, the economic growth is planned to continue at a robust pace over the coming two years, driven by domestic demand. House prices have continued to rise, although housing supply is edging up. The unemployment rate has stabilised at around 5.5%, and recently wage growth has picked up. However, weak global trade and past currency appreciation are holding back exports.
- Despite good economic indicators, growth of British car market is expected to be lower in 2016 than 2015 ( increase of less than 2%).
- Following new models, to be launched in 2016 and which can stimulate the British market during the year, are worthy to mention: Ford Fiesta, which positions itself traditionally among the two best selling cars in this market., Vauxhall Astra (rebranded version of the Opel Astra), launched in late 2015, which can also be one of the novelties that can boost the British market, since it is traditionally among the top five best selling car in this market.
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