Overview of the Australian market in 2015
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Overview of the Australian market in 2015
- The Australian automobile market grew by 3.8% in 2015, to a volume of 1.12 million vehicles (passenger vehicles and light utility vehicles), which is a new record for this market.SUVs represented 36.5% of sales in 2015, versus 32.5% in 2014. In addition to this, sedans accounted for 46% of sales in 2015, compared to 49% in 2014. Sales of pickup trucks remained stable at 10% of the market.
- By brand, Toyota (18.3% of the market, +1.0%) remains the leader in the Australian market, well ahead of Mazda (10.2% of the market, +13.2%), Holden-GM (9.2% of the market, -3.0%), Hyundai (9.1% of the market, +2.0%), Mitsubishi (6.4% of the market, +4.5%), Ford (6.3% of the market, -11.6%), Nissan (5.9% of the market, +0.1%), Volkswagen (5.4% of the market, +9.9%), Subaru (3.9% of the market, +7.6%) and Honda (3.6% of the market, +21.5%). Of these ten brands, only two American brands (Holden and Ford) saw their sales decrease in the Australian market last year. This market is becoming progressively Japanese-dominated (Japanese brands accounted for 48% of sales last year, compared to 47% the year before).
- The ten best-selling models in the Australian market in 2015 were the following: Toyota Corolla (42 073 vehicles), Mazda 3 (38 644), Toyota Hilux (35 161), Hyundai i30 (32 306), Ford Ranger (29 185), Holden Commodore (27 770), Toyota Camry (27 654), Mitsubishi L200 (25 338), Mazda CX5 (25 136) and Volkswagen Golf (22 662). Of these ten models, five are manufactured domestically (Corolla, Camry, Hilux, Ranger, Commodore), but will no longer be from 2018 onwards as all Australian automobile factories will cease operations at the end of 2017. Three pickup models figure among the ten best-selling models in Australia (Hilux, Ranger, L200).
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Production forecasts in the USA in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in the USA in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- Since 2009, automobile production in USA has risen steadily, reaching 12.2 million units in 2015, a level already achieved in 2005. This increase in US production has supported the uninterrupted growth of the US market since 2009.
- In 2016, Inovev remains cautious, because on one hand, the US market is expected to slow down after several years of strong growth that have actually caught up with the sales lost since 2005, and secondly,the US market now benefits Mexican production more than it benefits production in the US, since car production in Mexico has more than doubled between 2005 and 2015, while at the same time, US production has not increased.
- Finally, American brand vehicles (initially Buick models) will begin to be exported from China to the United States,from spring 2016, which will have a negative impact on US production. The new strategy of the GM group is encouraged by Chinese authorities who observe with great concern the decline in car exports from China (-20% in 2015 and even -30% in the first two months of 2016).
- Result of these three parameters,Inovev expects a stabilization or slight decline in US production in 2016 compared to 2015.It should therefore record a volume of about 12 million units, little different from the volume recorded in 2015.
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Production forecasts in Russia in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in Russia in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- Between 2009 and 2012, Russian car production had increased significantly, catching up the backlog of 2009 and reaching far beyond it, at around 2.3 million units. But with the fall of the Russian market, which began in 2013 (-5%) and which was amplified in 2014 (-10%) and 2015 (-30%), Russian production fell back in 2013(-6%), and the decline was amplified in 2014 (-11%) and 2015 (-30%). The Russian government had intended to limit car imports into Russia in order to build more new models on the Russian soil. However, although imports fell sharply in 2014 (-20%) and 2015 (-40%), we have observed that the market decline and the fall in production are of equal magnitude.
- The revival of the Russian market and Russian production therefore did not take place in 2015,but there are signs of a possible recovery in 2016, including the easing of economic sanctions on Russia and the introduction of new government measures encouraging the purchase of new vehicles. Meanwhile, new vehicles are added to Russian production: LadaVesta, Lada X-Ray, Ford Fiesta, Nissan Sentra, Nissan Qashqai, Toyota RAV4. By contrast, Chevrolet and Opel have disappeared from Russian assembly lines.
- Inovev remains optimistic for 2016 and expects an increase of 37.5% of Russian production, to 1.84 million units, provided that incentives are put in place quickly.
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The European LUV market remains well below pre-crisis levels
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The European LUV market remains well below pre-crisis levels
- The European light utility vehicles market (29 countries) grew by 11.6% in 2015, following a growth of 19.7% in 2014, but remains well below pre-crisis levels. Last year's figure of 1 735 000 vehicle registrations remains 25% lower than the figure for 2007 (2 229 000 vehicles).
- The market would therefore need to grow on average by 10% annually over three years (2016-2017-2018) to return to the record levels of 2007.
- The European light utility vehicles market is much more concentrated than the passenger cars market, which means that there are fewer manufacturers in this market, and also fewer imports from regions outside Europe + Turkey. In addition to this, there are also few exports to regions outside Europe.
- The European manufacturers producing this type of vehicle (the seven main ones are PSA, Renault-Nissan, Ford, FCA, Daimler, Volkswagen and GM) are therefore directly affected by changes in the LUV market in Europe.
- In 2015, PSA was the main producer of LUVs (420 000 vehicles), ahead of Renault-Nissan (390 000 vehicles), Ford (385 000 vehicles), FCA (335 000 vehicles), Daimler (255 000 vehicles), Volkswagen (210 000 vehicles) and GM (110 000 vehicles). These figures include LUV production in Turkey.
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Production forecasts in China in 2016 (PC + LCV)
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Production forecasts in China in 2016 (PC + LCV)
- Since 2005, China's automobile production is growing rapidly.It rose from 5 million units that year to 13 million in 2009 and 22 million in 2013, becoming the largest producer in the world. In 2014, 23 million units threshold was reached (23.4 million). In 2015, China's production experienced for the first time in ten years a slowdown that is reflected by weak growth (23.7 million units).
- The months of April, May, June and July 2015 even experienced a decline compared to the same month in 2014.
- But it seems that the recent reduction of 50% off tax on the purchase of small cars (the charges being reduced from 10% to 5%) had a positive impact on the Chinese automotive market, and consequently on Chinese automotive production.It should be recalled that 97% of Chinese production is currently sold locally (only 3% is exported), a figure that also increased in the past two years.
- China has indeed increasing difficulty to sell its cars abroad, while many markets around the world are growing rapidly. This means that Chinese products do not quite match the global demand, but only match Chinese demand. In 2016, Inovev expects greater growth than in 2015 of approximately 4.5%which is in line with the last few months of 2015 (after the tax reduction started).
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