Analysis of the Chinese used vehicle market
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Analysis of the Chinese used vehicle market
- China's used vehicle trade volume increased 2.3% in 2015 compared to the previous year to 9.42 million units according to China Automobile Dealers Association. Nevertheless, the ratio between new vehicle sales volume and used vehicle trade volume is still 2.61 : 1. China's market scale is only about 20% of that of the United States, which has a mature used vehicle market, which means there is still room for development.
- By taking into consideration environmental protection and tax revenues, local governments (in particular cities) have implemented restrictions on the inflow of used vehicles from outside. These restrictions have been however considered as a major factor in the slow development of China's used vehicle market. In March 2016, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Facilitating Used-Car Trading." The Opinions requires local governments to lift any limits on inflows of second-hand vehicles from other regions, except three densely urbanized areas which face serious air pollution. Out of 299 cities which implemented restrictions on used vehicle inflow from outside, 183 cities already abolished such measures as of October 2016.
- Looking at the used vehicle market by region, trade is most active in east China, accounting for 32.4% of the national total. In particular, Guangdong province accounts for 9.98% or one tenth of the national total, making it China's largest used vehicle market. As for vehicles by type, basic passenger cars make up over 60% of the market. Second-hand commercial vehicle trade has been gradually shrinking due to stricter emission regulations and dull performance of the overall truck market. Although the composition ratio of SUVs and MPVs is increasing, their scale remains small.
- As for vehicle age, vehicles used for 3-6 years are in high demand, accounting for some 70% of all trade. For the first six months of 2016, the two most popular models are the Wuling Sunshine and GM Cruze. Meanwhile, the top 10 models account for 15,6% of all used vehicle trade.
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Market achievements - PC + LUV - Europe 29 countries - 2016
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Market achievements - PC + LUV - Europe 29 countries - 2016
- The European market (29 countries: European Union - Malta + Switzerland + Norway) of light vehicles (“PC+LUV”: Passenger Cars + Light Utility Vehicles) continued to increase in 2016 (+ 7.1%), due to the catch-up effect following the 2008-2009 crisis which led to a fall of “PC+LUV” sales in Europe but also in other regions of the world.
- The European light vehicle market decreased from 18 million units in 2007 down to 14 million units in 2013.
A catch-up started in 2014 (+ 6.2%), and continued in 2015 (+9.4 %) And 2016 (+ 7.1%). The European light vehicle market thus reached 17 million units last year, and given the absence of signs of a reversal of economic activity in the region, growth is likely to continue in 2017 to reach a volume between 17.5 and 18 million units (between + 3% and + 6% increase).
A catch-up started in 2014 (+ 6.2%), and continued in 2015 (+9.4 %) And 2016 (+ 7.1%). The European light vehicle market thus reached 17 million units last year, and given the absence of signs of a reversal of economic activity in the region, growth is likely to continue in 2017 to reach a volume between 17.5 and 18 million units (between + 3% and + 6% increase).
- In 2016, Germany remained the largest market for light vehicles in Europe, with 3.6 million units, ahead of England (3.1 million), France (2.4 million), Italy (2.0 million), Spain (1.3 million) and Belux (0.7 million).
- The strongest growth was registered in Hungary (+ 24.7%), Cyprus (+ 23.0%), Croatia (+ 22.8%), Italy (+ 18.6%), Romania %), Ireland (+ 17.6%) and Poland (+ 16.6%).
- Sales in eastern Europe countries increased by 15.9% in 2016, while those in Western Europe limited the increase to 6.4%.
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US 2016 market achievements by models: Top 15
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US 2016 market achievements by models: Top 15
- Out of a total of 17.54 million vehicles sold in the US (passenger cars and light trucks) in 2016, Inovev calculated the breakdown by model.
- The Ford F-Series remains the most sold model range in the US since 1984, with a total of 820,000 units in 2016 (+ 5.2%). Next are the Chevrolet Silverado (575,000 units, -4.3%) and Dodge Ram (489,000 units, + 8.5%). These three large pickups account by themselves for nearly 11% of the US market in 2016.
- The top-selling sedan is the Toyota Camry (389,000 units, -9.5%) ahead of the Honda Civic (367,000 units, + 9.5%) and Toyota Corolla (360,000 units , -0.8%). The sedan segment is dominated by Japanese brands.
- The top-selling SUV is seventh, the Honda CRV (357,000 units, + 3.4%) ahead of the Toyota RAV4 (352,000 units, + 11.6%). There are three other Japanese models: Honda Accord (345,000 units, -2.9%), Nissan Rogue (330,000 units, + 14.9%), Nissan Altima (307,000 units, -7.8%). The SUV segment is also dominated by Japanese brands
- Of the 11 best-selling vehicles in the US in 2016, there are eight Japanese models. The first US sedan is the Ford Fusion (13th position) and the first US SUV is the Ford Escape (12th position). It is only in the category of pick-ups that the US manufacturers manage to dominate their Japanese competitors.
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Market achievements – USA – 2016 – PC + LUV
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Market achievements – USA – 2016 – PC + LUV
- The US market registered a record number of registrations in 2016, with a volume of 17.54 million light vehicles (PC + LUV: Passenger Cars + Light Utility vehicles), against 17.47 million in 2015. This volume can be broken down into 6.89 million Passenger Cars (APC: American Passenger Cars, excluding SUV, according to the American classification) and 10.65 million light trucks (SUVs + LUVs), representing 39% of APCs and 61% of light trucks.
- Demand from US customers continues year after year to move from APCs to light trucks. This is the first time APCs have dropped to less than 40% of the US market. Of the 61% of light trucks, SUVs by themselves account for 39% of the US market in 2016 (up from 35% in 2015).
- In a US market up 0.4% in 2016 compared to 2015, GM remains the leader (3.04 million APCs and light trucks) ahead of Ford (2.60 million), Toyota (2.45 million) Fiat-Chrysler (2.26 million), Honda (1.64 million), Renault-Nissan (1.56 million) and Hyundai-Kia (1.42 million).
- US groups (GM, Ford and Tesla) account for 32% of the US market, while Japanese groups account for 29% and European groups (including Fiat-Chrysler and Renault-Nissan) also account for 29%. The remaining 10% is split between Korean (Hyundai-Kia), Indian (Jaguar-Land Rover) and Chinese (Volvo) groups.
- In 2017, economic growth and the arrival of a new government are two of the many factors determining future market growth.
Two scenarios for forecasting the US automobile market for the year 2017 were established in an analysis published on January 4 and available on the Inovev platform.
Two scenarios for forecasting the US automobile market for the year 2017 were established in an analysis published on January 4 and available on the Inovev platform.
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Market achievements - 4 major world markets - 2016 (PC + LUV).
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Market achievements - 4 major world markets - 2016 (PC + LUV).
- The global car market increased by 4.6% in 2016, to 91.30 million light vehicles (against 87.32 million in 2015). The four major markets (China, USA, Europe 29 countries, Japan), representing 75% of world sales, experienced very different growth rates last year.
- China experienced the strongest growth (+ 14.4%) thanks to, among other things, government tax measures for vehicles under 1600cc. Registrations of 28 million vehicles in 2016 set a new record and consolidated China’s leading position.
China by itself now accounts for 30% of global registrations.
China by itself now accounts for 30% of global registrations.
- The US market was stable in 2016 (+ 0.4% to 17.5 million vehicles), after six years of catch-up following the 2008-2009 crisis.
It is to note that China experienced no fall in its market during the same period.
It is to note that China experienced no fall in its market during the same period.
- Europe (Europe 29: European Union - Malta + Switzerland + Norway) grew by 7.4% in 2016 (to 17.1 million vehicles), the third year of catch-up after the 2008-2009 crisis (with a bottom level in 2013).
- Finally, Japan has experienced a 1.5% decline of its market in 2016 (to 4.97 million vehicles).
It has stabilized it over the last ten years at an average level of 5 million annual registrations.
It has stabilized it over the last ten years at an average level of 5 million annual registrations.
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