Germany produced 900,000 BEVs (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) in 2023
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Germany produced 900,000 BEVs (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) in 2023
- Germany quickly became the leading European producer of battery electric vehicles (BEV). This country produced 900,000 BEVs in 2023 compared to 600,000 in 2022. The most important contribution was the arrival of Tesla in 2022 which produced nearly 200,000 Model Y in 2023 compared to 50,000 in 2022. The 700,000 remaining electric vehicles are represented by models from the Volkswagen group (450,000 units) and far behind from BMW group (150,000 units) and Mercedes group (100,000 units).
- Germany is well ahead of all other European countries when it comes to BEV production, as France and Spain only produced 165,000 and 155,000 units last year respectively. Note Inovev forecasts for France 500,000 vehicles in 2027 and 700,000 vehicles in 2030, meaning that French production in 2030 will be lower than Germany production in 2023.
- Spain, which was supposed to become the leading European country producing BEVs in 2030, will probably not be, due to the probable increase in production capacities at the German Tesla factory in Gruenheide. Spain will be able to count on its Martorell plant planned for 500,000 BEVs per year (of the B-segment) and on its Zaragoza plant planned for 300,000 BEVs per year (also of the B-segment), but despite the contribution of these entry-level vehicles and the possibility of one day seeing the Chery group producing BEVs at the Barcelona site, it is unlikely to see Spain overtaking Germany as a BEV producer by 2030.
- Behind Germany, France and Spain, the other countries remain modest (less than 100,000 BEVs per year except the Czech Republic which produced 120,000 last year). With the future establishment of BYD, Hungary will certainly increase its position in Europe.
Nissan Europe product plan 2025-2028: the Sunderland plant concentrates the production of the best-selling Nissan models in Europe
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Nissan Europe product plan 2025-2028: the Sunderland plant concentrates the production of the best-selling Nissan models in Europe
- The Japanese carmaker Nissan has only one remaining assembly plant in Europe, in Sunderland (England), since the Spanish plants in Barcelona and Avila, as well as the Russian one Saint Petersburg, were closed a few years ago. It is therefore on the Sunderland site that the best-selling Nissan models in Europe are produced, namely the Juke (B-segment SUV) and Qashqai (C-segment SUV) which last year achieved 75,000 sales and 140,000 sales respectively. These two models total 300,000 units produced in a factory which has a production capacity of 450,000 vehicles per year, thus representing two thirds of the factory's capacity in 2023. Nissan therefore intends to increase the production volume of this factory by focusing on electric technologies which will be mounted on the future Juke and Qashqai, in addition to the Leaf which was discontinued in March 2024 and will be renewed next year.
- The Juke and Qashqai are currently only available in thermal, mild-hybrid (MHEV) or full-hybrid (HEV) versions, which means that there is no longer a battery electric version produced in Sunderland today.
- AESC is increasing the capacity of its Sunderland factory to delivery battery cells for 250,000 BEVs per year, but the launch of battery electric vehicles in Nissan Sunderland plant will start from 2025 with the arrival of the future Leaf (2025), the future Juke (2026) then the future Qashqai (2027). However, the electric offensive of Nissan will begin next year with the launch of the future battery electric Micra based on the Renault 5 E-Tech and produced at the French Maubeuge site. Nissan therefore wants to sell 40% of battery electric vehicles in Europe in 2026 (compared to less than 10% in 2023). This is a very ambitious objective, practically unachievable. And Europe would thus be very far ahead of the rest of the world, since Nissan plans to sell only 20% of battery electric vehicles in regions outside Europe, including China.
French carmakers were the biggest beneficiaries from the new ecological bonuses in France
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French carmakers were the biggest beneficiaries from the new ecological bonuses in France
- We observed in a previous Auto-Analysis that the end of ecological bonuses in France on cars imported from outside Europe at the end of 2023 had mainly impacted sales of the Dacia Spring which is imported from China, but also at a lower level, the Tesla Model 3 and MG imported from China. The other models suffered relatively less because their sales volume still remains low at the moment, notably BYD and other not yet known Chinese brands, as well as the Volvo EX30 imported from China with a relative success.
- Which brands have benefited from the end of bonuses in France on cars imported from outside Europe at the end of 2023?
- Even if the hypothesis saying that customers of cars imported from China might postponed their purchase for more than six months or shifted to the purchase of a thermal model, full (FHEV) or plug-in (PHEV) hybrids, what seems to be the most likely is that a good part of these customers have decided to purchase a battery electric vehicle (BEV) produced in Europe and therefore eligible for the ecological bonus.
- In this case and in this case only, we can observe that six brands saw their BEV sales increase suddenly and significantly in France from January 2024: five brands of the Stellantis group (Peugeot, Fiat, Opel, Citroën, Jeep) and Renault, these six brands having been able to benefit from delayed purchases, initially planned for Chinese carmakers models, given that the French BEV market as a whole remained stable between January and April 2024.
Chinese carmakers sales in China over 12 months 2023 and 4 months 2024
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Chinese carmakers sales in China over 12 months 2023 and 4 months 2024
Sales of passenger cars from Chinese carmakers by groups (20) and by brands (65) over 12 months 2023 and 4 months 2024
(JV and imports not included)
The French automotive industry has set a target of 900,000 BEV sold in 2027
- 说明
The French automotive industry has set a target of 900,000 BEV sold in 2027
- The Strategic Automotive Industry Contract (CSF in French) for 2024-2027 was signed on May 6, 2024, in particular by the government and the PFA (organization representing carmakers and their supply chain). This contract sets a sales target of 900,000 battery electric light vehicles in 2027: 800,000 passenger cars (PC) and 100,000 light utility vehicles (LUV). See axis 4 (page 20) of the strategic contract for the automotive sector signed on May 6, 2024, downloadable at the address below (in French only): https://www.conseil-national-industrie.gouv.fr/files_cni /files/csf/Automobile/1835-strategic-contract-of-the-automobile-sector-light-vehicles-and-heavy-vehicles-2024-2027.pdf
- This sales objective is very ambitious. In 2023, 298,127 battery electric passenger cars were sold in France (16.8% of the French PC market at a level of 1,774,772 PCs) and 25,315 battery electric light utility vehicles (5.6% of the French market at a level of 378,040 LUVs). Inovev's forecasts for the French market for 2027 are 2,244,000 PC+LUV. Taking this market level into account, the government's objectives of BEVs for 2027 result in a market share of 40% of the PC+LUV market. Battery electric passenger cars sales would be multiplied by 2.7 in 4 years (annual growth rate: 30%) and battery electric light utility vehicles sales multiplied by 4 in 4 years (annual growth rate of 40%).
- The signed strategic contract does not indicate how to achieve this objective. But we can assume that the arrival on the market of battery electric models at moderate prices is one of the factors which could accelerate the growth of BEV sales, these future launches being made by European carmakers, but also Japanese, Korean and especially Chinese, the latter being renowned for offering electric models at low prices. This objective will be all the more achievable if subsidies for BEVs continue at least until 2027, because we have seen the impact of stopping subsidies in Germany.
- Note that the Inovev reference scenario shows a level of 900,000 sales only in 2030, and not in 2027 (see curve below)