Mercedes may produce one more model at its US plant
Following the announcement of future 25% tariff (in addition to existing tariffs) on car imports from Europe, the Mercedes Group announced that it is considering producing an additional model at its US plant in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Currently, this plant produces the Mercedes GLE (171,333 units in 2024), GLS (46,558 units), EQE (37,974 units), and EQS (24,539 units) large SUVs for the world, as well as the Sprinter lighht truck (55,111 units) for the US market only. In total, the Tuscaloosa plant produced 335,515 vehicles in 2024, with a production capacity set at 350,000 units per year.
 
On the other hand, Mercedes imported 201,194 vehicles from Europe in 2024, with the highest sales volumes recorded by the Mercedes GLC (64,163 units), C-Class (35,590 units), GLA (19,079 units) and E-Class (17,638 units).
 
We may be tempted to think that one of these four models could be produced in the Tuscaloosa plant for the American market, but in any case it would be necessary to increase the plant's production capacity, to 400,000 vehicles per year for example.
 
The most logical solution for Mercedes would be to add the Mercedes GLC SUV (D-segment) to the assembly lines of the Tuscaloosa plant, as it is the brand's most imported model from Europe, slightly more profitable than the smaller GLA SUV (C-segment). And this model would fit well into the plant's overall production of 400,000 units per year.
 
But the carmaker could ultimately choose a sedan, either the C-Class (D segment) already produced in Tuscaloosa between 2014 and 2020, or the E-Class (E segment) with a higher margin but half as popular on the US market as the C-Class.
Lucid announces 58% sales Increase in Q1 2025
After Fisker 's bankruptcy last year, we may think that its competitor Lucid, which had been experiencing significant financial difficulties for several years, could suffer the same fate. In 2024, Lucid recorded losses of approximately $2.7 billion. However, the company ended this period with cash of $5.16 billion, thanks in part to support from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.
 
For the full year 2024, Lucid produced 9,029 vehicles at its U.S. plant in Casa Grande, Arizona, meeting its targets. The carmaker delivered 10,241 vehicles, a 71% increase compared to 2023.
 
By 2025, Lucid plans to double its production to 20,000 vehicles, with the launch of its Gravity SUV to strengthen its range and market position. This new model will go on sale starting in April 2025.
 
The first quarter 2025 results show a 28% increase in production (2,212 units produced), not including the additional 600 vehicle kits in transit for final assembly in Saudi Arabia.
 
Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, a 58% increase from the first quarter of 2024, while the Gravity has yet to go on sale. At this rate, the Air sedan could find 12,000 customers by the end of December 2025, but the Gravity is expected to take a number of customers.
 
By 2025, the company expects sales of the Air sedan to reach 50% and sales of the Gravity SUV to reach 50%.
Did Japanese sedans benefit in the USA from the discontinuation of American sedans?
We recently brought to the front that the two major American carmakers, GM and Ford, had decided to remove sedans from their American ranges, judging that this sedan market was in constant decline (although it had been extremely important and even vital in the 50s and 60s, until the mid-70s) and less and less profitable, facing the constant growth of more profitable SUVs. While station wagons had been gradually replaced by minivans (MPVs), sedans were gradually replaced by SUVs (with SUVs even eventually replacing minivans).
 
Japanese carmakers, which occupy 37% of the US market in 2024, are the most direct competitors of the GM and Ford groups. It is therefore relevant to know whether the discontinuation of American sedans has benefited Japanese sedans. When we observe the sales curves of American and Japanese sedans, we see that the decline of this type of car has been general. The number of Japanese sedans on the US market fell from 3 million units per year in 2013-2014-2015-2016 to 1.5 million per year in 2020-2021-2022, due to the increasingly strong competition from SUVs. However, unlike American sedans, Japanese sedans sales reversed the trend in 2023, increasing by 350,000 units, which may be explained by a transfer of part of the customer base from American sedans to Japanese sedans. Competition from European sedans is not affected because these are premium sedans that don't really face any competition from GM and Ford, aside from a few Cadillac and Lincoln models that sell very little. And the competition from Korean sedans is too weak.
Volvo considering more production in the United States
Following the announcement of future 25% tariff (in addition to the existing tariffs) on car imports from Europe, the carmaker Volvo (a subsidiary of the Geely group) has announced that it is considering increasing production at its American plant in Ridgeville , South Carolina. Currently, this plant produces the S60 sedans (D-segment) as well as the EX90 SUVs (E-segment) and Polestar 3 (D segment), but in quantities too small to make the fully use the current capacities.
 
In 2024, this plant produced 7,494 S60 sedans, 8,590 electric EX90 SUVs and 3,911 electric Polestar 3s, for a total of 19,995 vehicles, while the site's capacity was set by the carmaker at 150,000 vehicles per year. There is therefore plenty of room to produce one or more new models, as this plant is significantly oversized compared to demand, particularly due to the low demand for high-priced electric vehicles.
 
On the other hand, Volvo imported 109,752 vehicles from Europe in 2024 out of the 125,243 sold in the USA, of which the largest sales volumes were recorded by the Volvo XC90 SUVs (39,492 units), Volvo XC60 (38,892 units) and Volvo XC40 (26,557 units).
 
We may be tempted to think that these three highly demanded models could be produced in the Ridgeville plant for the American market, in addition to the existing models (S60, EX90, Polestar 3) and without increasing the plant's production capacity, since these three models together represent between 100,000 and 110,000 units per year, to which must be added between 20,000 and 40,000 units per year of the S60, EX90 and Polestar 3, or between 120,000 and 150,000 units per year in total.
Japanese carmakers under pressure to produce more in the USA
Japanese carmakers, even though they produce a lot in the United States (3.36 million vehicles produced in 2024, representing 35% of the total production carried out in the country), still import a lot from abroad. They imported 2.51 million vehicles in 2024, including 900,000 from Japan, 845,000 from Canada and 765,000 from Mexico. The announcement of 25% tariff (in addition to the existing tariffs) on automobile imports from abroad could therefore impact these 2.51 million vehicles.
 
By carmaker:
• Toyota, which already has six plants in the United States, would however be the most impacted, with 1.08 million vehicles imported in 2024 from Canada (553,189 units), Mexico (192,813 units) and Japan (339,217 units).
• Honda, which has four plants in the United States, imported 443,185 vehicles last year, including 291,712 from Canada and 151,473 from Mexico.
• Mazda, which does not have a plant in the United States, imported 342,941 vehicles, including 207,546 from Japan and 135,395 from Mexico.
• Nissan, which has two plants in the United States, imports 326,124 vehicles, including 287,051 from Mexico and 39,073 from Japan.
• Subaru, which has only one plant in the United States, imports 209,900 vehicles from Japan.
• Finally, Mitsubishi, which no longer has a plant in the United States, imports 102,856 vehicles from Japan.
 
If Japanese carmakers wanted to transfer part of their production to the United States (Mazda and Mitsubishi cannot), they would have to increase the capacity of their US plants or build new ones.
 
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