The production of electric cars in Germany until 2030
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The production of electric cars in Germany until 2030
- Germany, the largest and most important production location for the automotive industry in Europe, is on the road to electromobility. Not only have numerous Gigafactory projects been announced that would make Germany the most important production location for battery cells and modules, according to Inovev, but automotive factories are also being converted to produce all-electric vehicles.
- The Volkswagen brand is currently trying to add a wing to its main plant in Wolfsburg for the "Trinity" project, but is encountering internal and external difficulties in implementing it. In addition to the Cupra Born, Zwickau also produces a large part of the ID range. The plant could thus become the largest BEV production facility in Germany. However, the BEV version of the Passat (ID7) is to be produced in Emden. Audi will electrify its vehicle range in the coming years, and the traditional plants in Neckarsulm and Ingolstadt should be adapted to this development. Porsche will produce the Macan as a BEV in Leipzig from 2024 in addition to the Taycan in Stuttgart.
- Mercedes already has its wide range of BEVs, the EQ series. Various models in the series are produced in Rastatt, Sindelfingen and Bremen. BMW still has a fairly small BEV range. The current i-series models are manufactured in Leipzig. The Dingolfing plant is scheduled to start producing the i5 and i7 models in 2022/2023.
- The Tesla plant near Berlin has the potential to become one of the largest BEV production facilities in Germany, alongside Zwickau. The plant is in expansion with the Model Y. European production of the potiential Model 2 and Model 3 could also be located there.
- Stellantis seems to be focusing on other production sites, as its Rüsselsheim plant will only produce the BEV version of the Opel Astra and the DS 4 model.
- Ford announced a new electric SUV in Cologne, Germany, after it was already known that BEV production would begin in Valencia, Spain. The Saarlouis plant will most likely be abandoned by Ford after 2025. It is unclear whether there will be a manufacturer that can take over and convert the plant for BEV production.
- It is noticeable that many BEV models are to be produced in Germany, but these are mainly models of the premium segments. This favors profit at the expense of production volume. Inovev estimates that about 1.3 million BEVs could be produced in Germany in 2030, while Spain, where more mass-produced vehicles are to be made, could produce up to 1.5 million vehicles in 2030.
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The current and future situation of the Turkish automotive industry
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The current and future situation of the Turkish automotive industry
- Turkey has been a backbone of the European automotive industry for decades, as several carmakers have shifted part of their production to the lower-cost country, led by Renault, Fiat, Ford, Hyundai and Toyota. Production volumes in Turkey peaked in 2017 at 1.75 million vehicles produced, compared with 1 million in 2013, but production slumped after 2017 and stabilized at 1.2 million units in 2020, 2021 and 2022, the same level as France. Honda closed its Turkish plant in 2021, and the Stellantis plant in Bursa (formerly Fiat) stopped production of the Doblo model in 2022, now manufactured in Vigo (Spain), and halted production of the Fiorino model, which was not replaced.
- Volkswagen, for its part, halted plans to build a plant in Turkey. Thus, the outlook for the Turkish automotive industry does not seem very optimistic, especially since there have been no announcements so far from Turkey-based carmakers about the start of production of 100% electric models in the country, with the exception of Ford, which plans to introduce electric versions of the Transit (the Ford Transit has been produced in Turkey for many years).
- At Toyota, we are waiting for the launch of the second generation of the CHR (C-segment SUV), still manufactured in Turkey, which will be a non-rechargeable hybrid vehicle (HEV). The salvation of the Turkish automotive industry may come from the start-up of the Gemlik factory, which wants to produce 175,000 100% electric vehicles in 2023 under the new Togg brand (with Turkish capital) and one million per year from 2030. Its first model should leave the plant in the spring of 2023.
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The difficulties of the BMW electric plan
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The difficulties of the BMW electric plan
- By 2021, the BMW Group has sold 103,855 electric models (BEVs) and 224,461 plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), representing 13% of their global sales (4% BEV and 9% PHEV). Broken down by model, these are 37,939 iX3, 28,216 i3, 34,851 Mini E and 2,849 iX. The product range will be expanded with the launch of the i4 (offshoot of the 4 Series), i7 (offshoot of the 7 Series) and iX1 (offshoot of the X1 SUV) in 2022. In 2023, an electric Mini Countryman and the i5 (offshoot of the 5 series) are scheduled to appear alongside the already familiar Mini E. It is noticeable that, as with Mercedes, the BEV range is based on that of cars with combustion engines.
- If a target of 100% for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales is set for 2035, as desired by the European Parliament, the BMW Group should succeed in selling 17.5% BEV+PHEV in 2022, 24% in 2023, 30.5% in 2024, 37.0% in 2025, 43.5% in 2026, 50.0% in 2027, etc. by 2035 to reach 100%, assuming a linear growth assumption.
- Based on the results of the first nine months of 2022, BMW will not reach the 350,000 BEV + PHEV sales in 2022 (260,000 sales in nine months), which would represent between 13% and 15% of the carmaker's global sales, far from the required 17.5%, although slightly better than Mercedes.
- BMW, like Mercedes, only offer expensive luxury cars, which will not make their task of selling 100% electric vehicles in 2035 any easier, i.e. between 2 million and 2.5 million vehicles, depending on the size of the European market at that time. For example, the carmaker has planned to produce 160,000 Mini E in 2030, which is half of Mini's current sales. In 2022, the BMW Group has only a 3% share of the global BEV market (compared to 2% for Mercedes).
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Balance of global sales of xEVs in 9 months 2022
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Balance of global sales of xEVs in 9 months 2022
The market for alternative electric vehicle cars (xEV) continues to grow in the three major world regions of China, Europe and the USA. Recently, Japan, still under the influence of non-rechargeable hybrids (HEV Toyota and Honda), has been shown to have little demand for 100% electric drive (BEV) or plug-in hybrid drive (PHEV) cars.
• BEVs in the first nine months of 2022 cumulative :
China registered 3,350,174 electric cars (BEVs), up 97% from the first nine months of 2021, with a local market share of 19.7%. Europe registered 1,002,720 electric cars (BEVs), an increase of 25% compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 12.1%. In the U.S., 583,245 electric cars (BEVs) were registered, representing a 79% increase over the first nine months of 2021, and a local market share of 5.7%.
China registered 3,350,174 electric cars (BEVs), up 97% from the first nine months of 2021, with a local market share of 19.7%. Europe registered 1,002,720 electric cars (BEVs), an increase of 25% compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 12.1%. In the U.S., 583,245 electric cars (BEVs) were registered, representing a 79% increase over the first nine months of 2021, and a local market share of 5.7%.
• PHEV in the cumulative first 9 months of 2022 :
China registered 984,647 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs), up 170% from the first nine months of 2021, and a local market share of 5.8%. In Europe, 687,887 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) were registered, representing an 11% decrease compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 8.3%. In the U.S., 137,524 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) were registered, representing a 22% increase compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 1.3%.
China registered 984,647 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs), up 170% from the first nine months of 2021, and a local market share of 5.8%. In Europe, 687,887 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) were registered, representing an 11% decrease compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 8.3%. In the U.S., 137,524 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) were registered, representing a 22% increase compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 1.3%.
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The Trinity project from Volkswagen
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The Trinity project from Volkswagen
The Volkswagen brand is currently working hard on the "Trinity" (E-segment) concept project, which brand boss Ralf Brandstätter described in 2021 as a showcase project. The concept, which has similarities to Audi's "Artemis" project, was supposed to be ready for the market in 2026, but the new VW Group CEO Oliver Blume is said to have decided to postpone it until 2030. Trinity stands for three things:
• A new architecture: the 100% electric MEB platform will receive an update and set new standards in terms of range, charging speed and digitalization. It will be used by all of the Group's brands in the future.
• Autonomous driving: Trinity is to achieve Level 2+ and be able to evolve to Level 4. The semiconductors are to be sourced exclusively from US carmaker Qualcomm from 2025. VW thus expects autonomous driving to be possible at Level 4 between 2026 and 2030. The software is being developed by VW's own company Cariad in collaboration with Bosch.
• New approach to production: VW plans to establish the new Trinity manufacturing facility in Wolfsburg as a reference model for intelligent production processes, digitalization and automation. However, VW has not reached an agreement with the owner of the land on which the factory is to be built. VW will therefore have to rethink quickly if the schedule is to be met.
The car, which is expected to go into production in 2026, will be a long-wheelbase sedan about 4.70 meters long, according to current estimates. There is talk of a range of 700 km, the 800-volt charging technology of the Porsche Taycan, and a price tag of €35,000 (for Inovev this price that is hard to reach). With this project, VW aims to reduce production costs while further expanding its "data-based business model”. Looking at the positioning of this project compared to the ID range, the latter will have to adjust its prices downwards.
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