British Market and Production Forecast 2022-2030
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British Market and Production Forecast 2022-2030
- In Inovev's reference scenario (automotive market = sales at 14.5 million units in 2030 and production volume at 15.4 million units), each country will be impacted according to local economic conditions, aid provided by the State to buyers of electric cars, the interest aroused by the supply of electric cars and plug-in hybrids, and even the confidence of households in the future.
- Registrations in the United Kingdom should experience a small recovery in 2022, of the order of 5% to 10% depending on the level of supply of semiconductors, which in terms of volumes should represent at least 2.10 million PC+LCV and a maximum of 2.20 million, compared to 2.00 million in 2021, 1.99 million in 2020 and 2.68 million in 2019.
- The year 2022 should not see the appearance of large-volume novelties and at the same time it will have to continue the path of the electrification of automotive purchases, which should have an impact on the average price of cars and the relative caution in l acquisition of a new car for some of the customers.
- In terms of production, the volume in the United Kingdom should increase from 0.93 million units in 2021 to 0.95 million in 2022, 0.96 million in 2023 and 0.97 million in 2024 then should stagnate until 2030, reaching 0.96 million units by that date. The United Kingdom will then have fallen to the level of Italy as a producer, very far behind Germany, Spain and France.
- After Honda, the hypothesis of the departure of another manufacturer from the country cannot be excluded. Conversely, the hypothesis that this country could become a production platform for future Chinese electric models cannot be ruled out either.
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The best-selling BEVs and PHEVs in Europe in 2021
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The best-selling BEVs and PHEVs in Europe in 2021
- Greater Europe (European Union + United Kingdom + Norway + Switzerland + Iceland) registered 1,218,360 all-electric cars (BEV) in 2021 compared to 745,684 units in 2020, and 1,045,022 plug-in hybrids (PHEV) compared to 619,129 units. Sales growth reached 63% for BEVs and 69% for PHEVs, which means that these sales slowed their growth last year, no doubt due to relatively high prices for this type of vehicle. In 2020, sales growth in Europe had indeed reached 107% for BEVs and 210% for PHEVs. In addition, BEV's European sales are concentrated at 80% in six countries (Germany, France, England, Norway, Netherlands, Italy) and those of PHEV at 70% in these same six countries.
- The Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling 100% electric model in Europe in 2021, with 135,000 sales, ahead of the Renault Zoé (70,000 sales), the Volkswagen ID3 (68,000 sales) and the Volkswagen ID4 (54,000 sales). ). These four models represent a quarter of the BEV market in Europe in 2021. The offer is now very abundant and includes 80 different models of all brands.
- Note that the Tesla Model 3 sees its sales increase by 55% in 2021 in Europe, while those of the Renault Zoé drop by 30%. Premium manufacturers for their part occupy 30% of the BEV market in Europe.
- On the PHEV side, the distribution of sales is more even, since there is no really dominant model. The Ford Kuga, Volvo XC40, Peugeot 3008, BMW 3 Series and Mercedes GLC are very close in terms of sales, between 35,000 and 40,000 units for each of these models. Premium manufacturers, however, occupy a preponderant share of this market, with just over 50% of PHEV sales (while they only represent 25% of the European market, all engines combined).
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Breakdown of passenger car sales in Europe and China by engine type
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Breakdown of passenger car sales in Europe and China by engine type
- Inovev compared the breakdown of passenger car sales in Europe and China by engine in 2020 and in 2021, with LCVs still being mostly delivered with diesel engines (but these should undergo a significant change over the next few years).
- In Europe, gasoline engines represent 41% of passenger car sales in 2021, compared to 49% in 2020. The drop is significant in terms of market share and benefits alternative engines, non-rechargeable hybrids (HEV-Mild and HEV-Full) whose sales will increase from 13% of the European market in 2020 to 21% in 2021, 100% electric cars (BEV) whose sales will increase from 6% of the market in 2020 to 11% of the market in 2021 and plug-in hybrids (PHEV ) whose sales will drop from 5% of the market in 2020 to 9% in 2021. Diesel sales continue to see their market share decline: 18% of the market in 2021 compared to 27% in 2020.
- In China, gasoline engines are still predominant, with 67% of the market in 2021 compared to 76% in 2020, but the decline is accentuated from year to year. Diesel engines are rarer than in Europe but still represent 15% of the market in 2021 compared to 17% in 2020. Sales of 100% electric cars have seen strong growth, rising from 5% in 2020 to 13% in 2021. Hybrids represent a very small share of the Chinese market, i.e. 3% for plug-in hybrids (compared to 1% in 2020) and 2% for non-rechargeable hybrids (compared to 1% in 2020).
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続きを読む... Breakdown of passenger car sales in Europe and China by engine type
Top Selling BEVs and PHEVs in China in 2021
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Top Selling BEVs and PHEVs in China in 2021
- China registered 2,751,755 all-electric cars (BEV) in 2021 compared to 995,397 units in 2020, and 597,752 plug-in hybrids (PHEV) in 2021 compared to 276,561 units in 2020. Sales growth reached 176% for BEVs and 116% for PHEVs, which means that these sales have more than doubled for this type of vehicle.
- The BEV market was boosted by the arrival of the Teslas on the Chinese market, which gradually took over nearly 18% of BEV sales in China, but also by the arrival of the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV, which in a short time became leader in BEV sales in China, with nearly 430,000 units in 2021, which represents nearly 16% of the BEV market in China.
- The Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model Y and Wuling HongGuang Mini EV thus occupy a third of the BEV market in China in 2021. They are ahead of around forty models of all brands which sell less than 100,000 units each.
- This category of vehicles is constantly being renewed since new brands are appearing as well as new models, which shows that this market is not yet in a mature state. There are still places to take and brands like Changan, BYD, Neta managed to hold their own last year while the J.V. struggle to follow the movement.
- On the PHEV side, the distribution of sales is more even since there is no really dominant model. BYD is, however, the brand with the most influence in this market, with a 45% market share in PHEV sales. J.V.s between Chinese and foreigners are also present in this market, such as those working for BMW, Volkswagen, Buick, Honda or Volvo.
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Segmentation of BEVs in Europe and China
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Segmentation of BEVs in Europe and China
- Inovev compared the segmentation of all-electric cars (BEVs) sold in Europe and China in 2020 and 2021.
- The A segment (i.e. the segment of the smallest and cheapest cars) is predominant in China since it represents 33% of BEV sales in this country in 2021 (compared to 32% in 2020) whereas that it does not exceed 15% in Europe in 2021 (compared to 11% in 2020). It is mainly thanks to the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV which accounts for half of the sales of this segment that the sales of the A segment are so important in China. In Europe, models in this segment are tending to disappear. This is the case of the Smart Fortwo/Forfour, the Volkswagen Up, Skoda Citigo, Seat Mii and the Renault Twingo whose days are numbered. Only the Fiat 500 e is still promised a bright future.
- The B segment is very strong in Europe (26% of BEV sales in 2021) and very weak in China (5% of BEV sales in 2021).
- The European offer is abundant: Renault Zoé, Peugeot e-208, Peugeot e-2008, Opel e-Corsa, Opel e-Mokka, DS3 Crossback, etc…
- The C segment is important in Europe and China: 30% of BEV sales in Europe in 2021 (compared to 25% in 2020) and 18% of BEV sales in China in 2021 (compared to 22% in 2020).
- The D segment is the leading market for BEVs in China (40% in 2021 and in 2020), while it only represents 24% of BEV sales in Europe in 2021 but is growing significantly (compared to 17% in 2020).
- The E segment is very low in Europe and China, 5% in Europe in 2021 (compared to 6% in 2020) and 4% in China in 2021 (compared to 3% in 2020). With the fall in sales of Tesla Model S, the F segment no longer represents anything either in Europe or in China.
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