Automotive production forecast in Europe 29 countries (2022-2030)
The European automotive market (29 countries) was the subject of an article in Auto-Analyse 2022-05. The resulting automobile production (PC+LCV) will not return to its record levels of 18 million vehicles per year by 2030 according to Inovev. 3 scenarios are preferred:
1/ The high scenario with a constant increase in production from 2022 to 2030, when the volume produced should reach 17.5 million units, compared to 18.0 million in 2018, 17.7 million in 2019, 13, 4 million in 2020 and 13.0 million in 2021. This scenario takes into account a European market which returns to pre-Covid crisis levels, mainly thanks to the deployment of an offer of electric vehicles accessible to the greatest number and by maintaining an offer of efficient thermal vehicles.
2/ The reference scenario shows a constant but smaller increase in production until 2030, when Inovev expects 15.4 million units. This scenario takes into account a market in transition between an offer of vehicles not yet accessible to all and at the same time a phenomenon of waiting from a part of the customers who could keep their combustion engine vehicle longer, until a clarification the effective ban on internal combustion vehicles or pending an offer corresponding to their expectations.
3/ The low scenario (12.4 million units in 2030) takes into account a market that reacts negatively to the shift in the offer of manufacturers who could only offer electric vehicles (BEV and PHEV) which are expensive because at higher added value. In addition, strong constraints on the use of thermal vehicles could force some users to turn to other means of transport.
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