Global light vehicle production could increase by 2.5% in 2023

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Global light vehicle production could increase by 2.5% in 2023

- Global light vehicle production (passenger cars + light utility vehicles) posted strong growth in the first four months of 2023: +9.9% compared to the same period of 2022. This significant growth rate is comparable to that of the global automotive market over the same period (+9.8%) which means that the restocking period is over since we produce as many vehicles as we have sold for four months.

- Depending on growth in the global automotive market estimated at nearly 10% for the whole of 2023 and depending on the high level of production between June and December 2022 followed by a stabilization of the production in April 2023 compared to April 2022, it is reasonable to expect that global automotive production growth could slow down and become very weak between June 2023 and December 2023. 

- Inovev estimates global automotive production growth at 2.5% for the whole of 2023. 

- This distortion between the level of sales and production will therefore result in a new destocking of vehicles because the level of sales will be higher than the level of production. The year 2024 is therefore forecasted according to Inovev to undoubtedly carry out a significant restocking, as in 2022. Finally, it should be noted that production growth will be greater in 2023 in China and India than in the United States or Europe, which will further increase China's share in the global automotive production, which was 28% in 2019 and 32% in 2022.

Chevrolet, the leading brand of the GM group, is less and less popular

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Chevrolet, the leading brand of the GM group, is less and less popular

- The GM group is currently regrouping four brands: Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC. The Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn brands were ended in the 2000s, while the European brands Opel and Vauxhall were sold in 2017 the French group PSA (Stellantis today). The Chevrolet brand represents the entry level of the GM group.

- Chevrolet, the entry level brand of GM, has always been the leading brand of the group. Each year, it ranks among the top brands sold in the United States, in competition with Ford and Toyota. But its sales have steadily declined in volume since 2014.

- Outside the United States, Chevrolet has lost much of its shine, even if the development of its production in China for a time screened the gravity of its situation internationally. In recent years, Chevrolet has ceased production of vehicles in South Africa, Australia, India, Russia and Thailand. Its production in South Korea has fallen by 60% since 2005, and even in North America and South America, its production has fallen by 40% since 2005. In total, Chevrolet's global production has fallen from 4.5 million vehicles in 2005 to 2.7 million in 2022, which represents a drop of 40%.

- Chevrolet's strategy for the past five years has been to drop sedans from its U.S. line-up (while returning the Malibu to production in 2021) and try to establish itself in the all-electric car market. This attempt (still in progress) is not really successful given the positioning of the entry-level brand of the GM group and the reluctance of American customers to purchase this type of vehicle.

Cadillac, a final attempt to revive the American Premium

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Cadillac, a final attempt to revive the American Premium

- Within the GM group, Cadillac is the premium brand. Like Buick, it is very far from having regained its former prestige, but its establishment and development in China has paid off, since the brand has almost doubled its worldwide sales between 2005 and 2022, going from 239,000 to 426,000 vehicles last year.

- Today, 50% of the cars produced by Cadillac are made in China and 50% in North America, whereas in 2005 all of its production was carried out in North America.

- It is interesting to note that during the period of development of its production in China, the production of Cadillac in North America remained stable, around 200,000 units per year. In fact, the contribution of Chinese production (for local sales) has enabled the Cadillac brand to double its global distribution. It's a good performance, but the Buick brand had done even better by multiplying its sales by 5.5 thanks to its production in China.

- However, unlike Buick, Cadillac's production volume has not collapsed since 2016, but has remained stable. The gap between Buick and Cadillac has therefore narrowed significantly between 2016 and 2022, going from 4.3 to 1 in 2016 to 1.7 to 1 in 2022.

- As with Chevrolet and Buick, the Cadillac brand is gradually leaving the sedan market to focus on SUVs. Regarding the electric motorization, Cadillac seems better placed according to its premium positioning. However, its already marketed battery electric model, the Lyriq, does not meet a great success, whether in China or in the United States.

Buick, an American brand that survives thanks to China

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Buick, an American brand that survives thanks to China

- The GM group is currently regrouping four brands: Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC. Buick represents the group's mid-range brand. It is the only mid-range brand of the GM group to have survived after the end of the brands Oldsmobile in 2004 and Pontiac in 2010.

- On the decline, Buick also almost disappeared, but the establishment and development of its production in China made it possible to find real prosperity against all odds for several years, between 2008 and 2016, its production volume going from 440,000 to 1,415,000 vehicles during this period. Between 2008 and 2016, China's share of Buick production increased from 62% to 87%. And it has continued to progress since, reaching 94% in 2022.

- The problem is that Buick's production volume has been steadily declining since 2016 in both China and North America. It thus decreased globally from 1,415,000 units in 2016 to 1,318,000 in 2017, 1,138,000 in 2018, 915,000 in 2019, 861,000 in 2021 and 718,000 in 2022. Buick's production volume has thus halved between 2016 and 2022.

- The threat of a disappearance therefore resurfaces because nothing has so far made it possible to stop this fall. In addition, production in North America has become truly confidential. Chevrolet's strategy has been copied to Buick in North America by eliminating its sedans in North America and entering the battery electric vehicle market and a range of products made up exclusively of SUV in North America, with the same failure for the moment.

Auto production in Iran increasingly dependent on China

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Auto production in Iran increasingly dependent on China
- Automotive production in Iran is evolving like a roller coaster. It is directly impacted by Western economic sanctions which are softened and hardened regularly, without much logic for the uninitiated. But Iran finds the solution by sourcing from China, either to assemble Peugeot vehicles (not recognized by the parent company) which represent a large part of the Iranian car fleet, or to assemble Chinese vehicles of different brands. Chinese brands accounted for 11% of Iranian automotive production in 2022, constantly increasing, and this share is expected to increase further in the coming years, as in Europe and Russia for example.
 
- Over the past 20 years, Iranian automobile production reached a volume of 1.6 million vehicles in 2010 and 2011 before collapsing in 2012 and 2013 (650,000 vehicles). Iranian production then gradually increased to 1.5 million units in 2017, before falling again to 800,000 units in 2019 and 725,000 in 2020.

 

- In 2021, Iranian automobile production resumed its growth to reach 1.2 million units in 2022 and according to the figures recorded in the first quarter of 2023, Iranian automobile production should fall to 1 million units over the entire 2023 year, of which 51% assembled by the Iran Khodro company (including 36% of Peugeot vehicles not accounted by the Stellantis group) against 46% in 2022 and 31% assembled by the SAIPA company against 43% in 2022. Chinese carmakers, in strong growth, should represent 18% of Iranian automobile production in 2023, against 11% in 2022.
 
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