Six new countries to join BRICS organisation on 1st January 2024
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Six new countries to join BRICS organisation on 1st January 2024
- Since the early 2000s, the acronym BRICS has referred to five emerging or developing countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In terms of car production, these five countries have been led by China, which in just a few years has become the world's largest car producer. The other four countries have seen their car production grow less strongly than China. In 2005, these five countries produced 11 million vehicles, 50% of which (5.5 million) were produced in China, while in 2022, 36 million vehicles have been produced, including 75% (27 million) in China.
- Chinese car production has been multiplied by 5 between 2005 and 2022, while the other four countries by only 1.6. The BRICS will account for 43% of global automotive production in 2022.
- From 1st January 2024, six new countries will join the BRICS: Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia. This new group represents 46% of the world's population (around 2.8 billion inhabitants in India and China alone) and will have an economic weight (35% of world GNP) that will be close to the G7 (Germany, Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom), which represents almost 45% of world GNP. In terms of car production, the expansion will be more modest, as the six new BRICS members, only Argentina and Iran produce cars (1.75 million units in 2022).
- By 2024, the 11 BRICS countries could therefore account for 45% of global car production, compared to 35% for the G7 countries.
Inovev forecasts 150,000 units a year for the new Ford Transit Custom
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Inovev forecasts 150,000 units a year for the new Ford Transit Custom
- The Ford Transit Custom van (N1-3 segment), which dates back to 2012, has be replaced this summer 2023. Following agreements between Ford and Volkswagen, the new generation Transit Custom will share its platform and body with the Volkswagen Transporter van (2024 model year). Ford is ending its own platform and using Volkswagen's one (known as MQB), which enables combustion, hybrid and electric engines to be offered on the same model. This strategy clearly shows that American carmakers are behind in the development of 100% electric powertrains, or that there is little interest in this type of powertrain for this market.
- The advantage of using Volkswagen's MQB platform is that Ford is able to offer at a lower cost an electric version of the Transit Custom, which until now was not available.
- The new-generation of Ford Transit Custom will nevertheless continue to be powered by a 2.0 diesel engine and a 2.5 plug-in hybrid petrol engine, in addition to the electric motor supplied by Volkswagen. The batteries, meanwhile, come from SK (formerly SK Innovation), using the same cells as those in the Ford F-150 Lightning, with a total capacity of 74 kWh.
- The new Ford Transit Custom will be produced in Turkey (Kocaeli) as before, with the large Transit continuing its career. Inovev is forecasting stable production of around 150,000 units a year, with the proportion of electric vehicles set to rise steadily between now and 2035.
Inovev forecasts 500,000 sales of the new Volkswagen Tiguan SUV by 2025
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Inovev forecasts 500,000 sales of the new Volkswagen Tiguan SUV by 2025
- The third generation of the C-segment Volkswagen Tiguan SUV will probably be the last, as this model unveiled at the 2023 Munich Motor Show will see its seven-year commercial career come to an end in 2030, when all Volkswagen models sold in Europe are expected be equipped with fully electric motorisation. However, the range of battery electric cars is identified by the designation ID (ID3, ID4, ID5, ID6, ID7, etc.).
- The Volkswagen Tiguan will therefore make its last lap in Europe between 2024 and 2030. And it will really be a challenge for the carmaker because the Tiguan is one of the best-selling SUVs in the world, with 800,000 sales in 2018, 700 000 sales in 2019 and another 530,000 sales in 2022. It will be very difficult for Volkswagen to produce a battery electric SUV at such a volume.
- The new Tiguan unveiled at the 2023 Munich Motor Show will still be equipped with petrol (1.5 TSI) and diesel (2.0 TDI) engines and plug-in hybrid petrol engines of 204 hp and 272 hp, but will not be entitled to battery electric motorization reserved for the ID range.
- This is why Inovev is not optimistic about the expected production volume of the new Tiguan, in a period when battery electric motorization should develop strongly and where internal combustion engines will continue to decline.
- We can count on 500,000 sales per year in 2024-2025 then 400,000 in 2026-2027, 300,000 in 2028-2029 and 200,000 in 2030.
- The new Tiguan will compete with the Hyundai Tucson, Kia Sportage as well as the Peugeot 3008, Citroën C5 Aircross, Opel Grandland, DS 7 which will be available in a battery electric version.
Inovev forecasts 15,000 units a year for the new Renault Rafale
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Inovev forecasts 15,000 units a year for the new Renault Rafale
- Renault is presenting its new D-segment Rafale coupé SUV at the 2023 Munich Motor Show. This model, inspired by the C-segment Renault Arkana, the success of which is undeniable (76,000 units sold in Europe in 2022 against 18,000 Kadjar), will attempt to repeat Arkana's commercial success at the top echelon.
- For this, the carmaker started from the base of the Renault Espace SUV, itself derived from the Austral SUV, to create a silhouette close to the Arkana and which is in line with the movement of the Mercedes GLC coupé, BMW X4 or Audi Q3 Sportback. It is true that coupé SUVs were initiated by Premium carmakers and these still represent the vast majority of coupé SUV sales today.
- Renault is very reckless to venture into this category because the chances of success of the Rafale remain very slim. Indeed, between a Premium brand coupe SUV and a Renault mainstream brand coupe SUV, the customer will almost always prefer the Premium brand. Renault is of course building on the success of the lower-segment Arkana, but can that success really be repeated on a higher-segment model? Nothing is less sure. Especially since the Safrane, Renault has never stood out in the top of the range.
- Inovev is counting on a sales volume of 15,000 copies per year of the Renault Rafale. It is produced at the Palencia site in Spain, alongside the Renault Austral (115,000 units per year) and Espace (25,000 units per year). The Rafale will be available in gasoline hybrid (200 hp) or plug-in gasoline hybrid (300 hp) but not in a battery electric version. We are talking about prices between 45,000 and 65,000 euros depending on the version and the engines.
The future Fiat Panda (2024) will be produced in Serbia (Kragujevac)
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The future Fiat Panda (2024) will be produced in Serbia (Kragujevac)
- The Serbian plant at Kragujevac initially belonged to the sole Yugoslav producer, Zastava. In 1954, Zastava signed an agreement with the Italian carmaker Fiat to produce Fiat vehicles under license. These vehicles gradually develop the automotive market in Yugoslavia, just as they did in Italy a few years earlier. The end of Yugoslavia began with the fall of communism in Eastern Europe and Russia in the early 1990s. The Kragujevac factory was bombed by NATO during the war in Yugoslavia at the end of the 90s, but was rebuilt in the early years of the 2000s. In 2010, the plant was bought by Fiat to produce the 500L (a 500 estate version) there between 2012 and 2022.
- While the plant ceased operations in 2022 and its future (within the new Stellantis group created in 2021 from the merger of PSA and Fiat-Chrysler) seemed uncertain, it will be in charge of producing the future Fiat Panda, scheduled for 2024. This new model, based on the CMP platform shared with the Peugeot 208, Opel Corsa and DS 3 and which will also be adopted by the future Citroën C3 and Lancia Ypsilon, will be available in both combustion and electric versions, like the models mentioned above.
- This future Panda will be 4 m long compared to 3.69 m for the current Panda and will therefore upgrade from the A to the B segment, leaving the Fiat 500 free in the A-segment and coming back in the B segment market, left empty by the old, non renewed Fiat Punto. It seems that the current Fiat Panda, which will continue to be produced in Pomigliano (southern Italy), will continue its career as an entry-level model. As with the Fiat 500, there will therefore be two Fiat Pandas.
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