Details

Published: 24 December 2021

• Registrations

LUV sales have been declining in Europe since July 2021

- Sales of light utility vehicles (LUV) in Europe (29 countries including Great Britain) increased this year until June 2021 to almost matching the volume observed in 2019, as the volume for 2020 was strongly impacted by the lock-down and closures of factories and dealerships in March, April and May 2020.

- The decline in LUV sales in Europe started from July 2021, where we see a sharp drop compared to 2019 and even compared to 2020 which at that time had a beginning of recovery.

- This drop in LUV sales in Europe cannot seem to be explained solely by the shortage of semiconductor supplies, as this "crisis" did not start last July but much earlier, according to the carmakers.

- There is undoubtedly another phenomenon which is added to this problem of semiconductors. And it cannot be either the switch of the light utility vehicles market towards battery electric, as the electric motorization represents only 2% to 3 % of LUV sales in Europe in 2021. A figure much lower than what we can observe in the category of passenger cars (passenger cars) and which reached almost 10% over the first 10 months of 2021.

- Suddenly, the increase in LUV sales in Europe, which was +27.4% over the cumulative of the first 8 months of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, fell to +20.1% over the cumulative 9 first months and +15.6% on the cumulative amount of the first 10 months. At this rate, it could decline to + 10% over the cumulative amount of the first 11 months and + 5% over the complete year.

    

 

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Read more... LUV sales have been declining in Europe since July 2021

Details

Published: 20 December 2021

• Production
• Ford
• Argentina
• Thailand
• USA
• South Africa

Inovev forecasts 400,000 units per year of the new Ford Ranger

- Ford has unveiled the fourth generation of its mid-range pickup, the Ranger, the previous generation dated from 2012. Aesthetically speaking, this new generation only seems to be a facelift (the entire front end has been redesigned inspired by the Ford F Series) but in reality everything is new, since the platform is different (widened underbody, extended wheelbase, adaptation to electric motorisations and battery) but the length of the vehicle remains the same (5.36 m).

- The engines have also evolved as Ford now offers a 3-liter V6 diesel in addition to the 2-liter four-cylinder diesel. Importantly, Ford has indicated that a battery electric version will be released in the next two to three years. A 2.3-liter petrol version will be launched next year in the United States and some non-European markets. Also, the new Ford Ranger could be the base to the future Volkswagen Amarok, which has been ended recently.

- The new Ford Ranger will go into production in early 2022 in the four countries where it is already produced today: the United States (for the North American markets), Thailand (for the Asian and European markets) , South Africa (for African markets) and Argentina (for South American markets). Inovev forecasts 400,000 units per year for all of these countries. That's half as much as the Ford F-Series (upper segment pickup), but the Ranger has gradually become the second-best-selling model of the American carmaker, behind the F-Series. The 2012-2021 generation of the model has been a great success since its sales rose from 170,000 in 2013 to 365,000 in 2021, with a peak of 400,000 units in 2019.

    

 

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Read more... Inovev forecasts 400,000 units per year of the new Ford Ranger

Details

Published: 24 December 2021

• Registrations

35% of electric vehicles in Europe in 2030. But 35% of which market?

- In order to forecast the electrification levels of markets in Europe by 2030, Inovev has built a simulation model named "IES model", standing for "Inovev EV Simulation Model". This simulation model allows us to calculate the market shares of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) necessary for carmakers to meet the CO2 objectives set by the European Commission in 2025 and 2030. Objectives currently in renegotiation.

- However, CO2 objectives alone do not make it possible to predict the levels of European markets in 2030. To this must be added the various factors that will have an impact on buyers demand (professionals and privates) but also on society as a whole. These factors are fairly well identified today: purchase price of electric vehicles, availability of recharging infrastructure, creation of low or zero emission zones, the transition of the automotive industry, impact on jobs and the economy in general, etc ...

- It is all of these factors (C02 objectives and market demand) which are integrated into the “IES model” and which allow Inovev to establish scenarios for the future of the electric vehicle market in Europe in 2030. Thus, in the tables attached to this analysis, you will find two scenarios specific to CO2 objectives and two scenarios which take market demand into account.

- In summary, to achieve the current CO2 objectives, carmakers have to sell in Europe, in 2030, at least 40% of BEVs and 10% of PHEVs (or in a second scenario 30% of BEVs and 25% of PHEVs). However, in the Inovev reference scenario, which takes all the factors into account, 35% of the European market may be made up of BEVs and PHEVs (with 25% of BEVs and 10% of PHEVs), which will, by the way, will not allow carmakers to meet the CO2 targets.

- We are therefore talking about a 35% market of BEVs and PHEVs. But 35% of which market? What will the level of the European market be in 2030? Equivalent to 2019 (before the COVID crisis)? to 2020/2021? Or even much lower?

- We talk a lot about the offer of electric vehicles from carmakers, but demand must also be taken into account. On the offer side, the carmakers' policy is always to move towards greater added value: disappearance of small vehicles, push of large vehicles, vehicles with increasingly complex (but really necessary?) functions and equipment. This choice can lead to two types of risk:

1st risk:

üA continuous increase of vehicle prices to reach a level that will no longer be accepted.

üWith the consequence of a sharp drop in the market for new vehicles.

üSome users may turn away from the car, others prefer to keep their vehicle longer.

2nd risk:

üA hole is forming in the range of European carmakers, no one producing small vehicles. This may turn out to be a royal road for the development of non-European carmakers in Europe, in particular Chinese carmakers, who do not necessarily meet the same objectives as European carmakers (search for profitability in particular).

    

 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

Read more... 35% of electric vehicles in Europe in 2030. But 35% of which market?

Details

Published: 20 December 2021

• Production
• Hyundai-Kia
• South Korea

Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year of the new Kia Niro

- Kia unveiled the second generation of the Niro C-segment SUV, which was one of the brand's first models to feature alternative powertrains. The current model is available in hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery-electric (BEV) versions. The new model uses the same engines as the current model.

- Launched in 2016, the first-generation Niro has been sold at 676,000 units, totally. Peak production was reached in 2020 with 137,000 units produced. The best-selling version today is the battery electric version (58% of Niro's sales in 2020 compared to 28% in 2019) and the new generation of the Niro is likely to boost the share of sales of the electric version.

- Inovev forecasts 150,000 sales per year of the new Kia Niro, including 100,000 in the BEV version. This model does not use the E-GMP platform of the Kia EV6, more expensive and exclusively adaptedto battery electric powertrain. Moreover, the Nirois not integrated into the range of Kia EV4, EV5, EV6, EV7, which is the specific Kia battery electric models line-up (the EV5 and EV7 are not yet launched).

- The Kia Niro will be assembled at the Korean plant of Kwangju, alongside the Kia Soul and Sportage which share the same platform. The Kia Niro will therefore not be produced in Europe, even if 75,000 units were sold in 2020 against 55,000 in 2019 and 42,000 in 2018. In the first 10 months of 2021, the Kia Niro sold 73,000 copies in Europe and will certainly exceed 85,000 copies by the end of the year. As a reminder, Kia wants to sell 880,000 electric cars worldwide in 2030, ten times more than in 2020 (88,000 sales).

    

 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

Read more... Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year of the new Kia Niro