German cars continue to be sold in Russia… but come from China
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German cars continue to be sold in Russia… but come from China
- We have seen that Western economic sanctions against Russia (following the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine) had notably resulted in the departure of European, Japanese and Korean automobile brands from the Russian market in 2022 and the massive arrival of Chinese automobile brands to offset the departures. After the liquidation of most of the stocks of European, Japanese and Korean cars, Chinese brands have continued to grow in the Russian market, today reaching an overall market share of 61% at the end of July 2024 (521,086 units over the first 7 months of 2024).
- The share of Russian automobile brands (first and foremost Avtovaz, Moskvitch and UAZ) currently stands at 31% of the Russian market (263,883 units over the first 7 months of 2024), which therefore leaves 8% of the market distributed between European (24,282 units including 16,330 German), Japanese (21,164 units) and Korean (17,616 units) cars.
- How is this possible? It is likely that a small part comes from still available stocks and vehicles produced in Russia without the agreement of the brands in question, but according to an investigation carried out by a former German member of the Bundestag, a large number of these cars available on the Russian market come from Chinese factories, notably from Volkswagens (through the Chinese subsidiaries SAIC and FAW), and this probably without the agreement of the carmaker. Despite Volkswagen's denial, the Jetta, ID6, Talagon, Tavendor and Tayron are sold by thousands in Russia. However, these models are only produced in China! This situation is certainly repeated at BMW, Mercedes and Audi, but it is more difficult to identify them because the models of these brands produced in China are the same as those produced in Germany.
Volkswagen could close several factories in Germany
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Volkswagen could close several factories in Germany
- The Volkswagen group has announced that there is a shortage of around 500,000 cars to be produced in Germany in 2023 for its factories located in this country to be saturated. Inovev compared the number of vehicles produced by the Volkswagen group in Germany in 2023 to the current production capacity of each of the carmaker's factories, and indeed the difference is 540,000 vehicles.
- Volkswagen has announced the possible closure of several of its factories located in Germany if the automobile market does not recover. Apart from the Dresden and Osnabruck factories which are practically at a standstill, the German factory most threatened is undoubtedly Emden which has no longer produced the Passat since the end of last year, this one having been transferred to the Bratislava site, empty since the end of the small cars Volkswagen Up, Seat Mii and Skoda Citigo.
- The Volkswagen ID7 has replaced the Passat on the assembly lines at the Emden factory, but given the low sales numbers recorded by the ID7, the factory is slowing down. This factory is therefore one of the carmaker's most threatened German factories.
- With the announcement of the possible closure of the Belgian factory in Brussels-Forest, the end of subsidies for electric cars in Germany and the possible European additional taxes on electric cars from China which could provoke a reaction from China concerning sales of European cars in the country, difficulties seem to be piling up for the leading European carmaker, the Volkswagen group.
Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new VW Transporter/Caravelle
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Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new VW Transporter/Caravelle
- Volkswagen has unveiled the seventh generation of the Transporter and Caravelle. These two new models (T7) intended for the transport of goods (Transporter) or the transport of passengers (Caravelle) take up the platform of the Ford Transit Custom which were recently unveiled, following the agreement between VW and Ford signed in 2020 on light utility vehicles.
- This agreement stipulated that the VW Amarok pick-up would take the platform and body of the Ford Ranger pick-up, that the Ford Connect would take the platform and body of the VW Caddy, and that the VW Transporter/Caravelle would take the platform and body Ford Transit Customs. This agreement stipulated that the production of the Ford Connect would be carried out at VW in Poland and that of the VW T7 at Ford in Turkey.
- This sharing project on LUVs was accompanied by an agreement on the use of Volkswagen's MEB platform by battery electric European Fords (primarily the Explorer and Capri).
- The new VW Transporter/Caravelle are equipped with a 2.0 liter diesel engine (TDI) delivering a choice of 110 hp (81kW), 150 hp (110 kW) or 170 hp (125 kW). A plug-in hybrid version (PHEV) delivering 232 hp (171 kW) will also be marketed. Finally, an electric motor will be added next year, in a 136 hp (100 kW), 218 hp (160 kW) or 286 hp (210 kW), which may compete the Volkswagen's ID Buzz model. The battery capacity will be 64 kWh. The new Transporter and Caravelle will be produced in Kocaeli, at a rate of 100,000 units per year, alongside the Ford Transit and Transit Custom. The transfer of Ford Couriers from Kocaeli to Craiova (in Romania) makes it possible to produce the VW Transporter and Caravelle in Kocaeli. The Hanover factory will therefore only produce the VW ID Buzz and the VW Multivan based on the MQB platform.
Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year in Europe of the new MG ZS SUV
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Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year in Europe of the new MG ZS SUV
- MG (a subsidiary of the Chinese group SAIC) has unveiled the second generation of its B-segment SUV, the ZS. The replacement of this model is crucial for the carmaker because since 2020 it has been the best-selling Chinese model in Europe. Thus, 87,195 units were sold there in 2023, compared to 44,109 in 2022, 26,381 in 2021 and 15,994 in 2020. Over the first seven months of 2024, 60,493 units were sold there, which represents an annual rate of 100,000 units. In total, nearly 250,000 ZSs were sold in Europe between 2017 and July 2024.
- The new MG ZS is 11 cm longer than the old one (4.43 m versus 4.32 m), which corresponds to the dimensions of an SUV in the C segment and no longer in the B segment, like the old generation ZS.
- An important point is that the new MG ZS will not be available in a battery electric version like the old model (the BEV version represented 36% of ZS sales) but only in a 1.5 petrol version and in a 1.5 full-hybrid version seen on the recent MG 3. The replacement of the battery electric ZS will be completely different and based on the MG 4 C-segment sedan.
- The new MG ZS will be produced in China as before, but it is possible that it will be one day produced in Europe, when SAIC has decided where to build its future European factory. Inovev forecasts 100,000 sales per year of the MG ZS in Europe (EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) regardless of the mode of distribution in Europe, i.e. either through importation from China either through local production in Europe, or both. But a possible 38% surcharge on imported MGs could hamper the carmaker's sales.
GM lowers its sales targets for BEVs
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GM lowers its sales targets for BEVs
- Following the end of the cooperation with Honda on the design, production and sales of battery electric vehicles, the GM group (fifth largest carmaker in the world) decided to continue its development in the electric technology on its own. The battery electric platform designed by GM and Honda will therefore have only seen two realizations at Honda and six at GM.
- This platform, called GM BEV3 by the American carmaker, which concerns vehicles from 4.75 m to 5.00 m, was supposed to be followed by the GM BEV2 platforms (vehicles from 4.50 m to 4.75 m) and GM BEV1 (vehicles from 4.25 m to 4.50 m), but the carmaker has decided to postpone these projects due to the lack of dynamism in the market of battery electric vehicles which tend to stagnate almost everywhere in the world, except in China.
- GM is revising its objective of producing one million battery electric vehicles in 2025. GM is also ending the Ultium brand which was to supposed to gather all activities linked to electric technology (models, platforms and battery cells). GM will also adjust its investments in the electric technology, due to lower demand than expected, favoring LFP batteries for current production and reserving NMC batteries for the Premium category (Cadillac).
- GM sold only 290,000 BEVs in China (with Wuling and Baojun) over the first eight months of 2024 and 60,000 in the United States, or 350,000 in total, which is equivalent to a volume of 525,000 over the year (8% of its production). And the sales decline in China (-29% over the first eight months of 2024) does not give any signs that the volume of its BEV sales will increase in 2025. In response to this difficult context, the carmaker is now announcing the return of a range of plug-in hybrid vehicles, without however calling into question its objective of a fully electric range for the entire group in 2035, which seems unrealistic.
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