What share will the various segments have in future European automobile production?
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What share will the various segments have in future European automobile production?
- According to Inovev's analyses, entry-level segment A had already finally collapsed in 2020. Inovev does not expect production to increase again; on the contrary, it will be reduced further. The A segment will become increasingly less important, especially for expensive BEVs.
- Inovev expects production in the lower B segment to more than recover after the slump in the Corona crisis. With an estimated volume of around 4.8 million vehicles, it will be the segment with the highest production in Europe in 2030. In all-electric vehicles (BEVs), it is the most important segment and will be able to expand its share of European production to over 50% by 2030.
- Production of the mid-size C segment is expected by Inovev to recover after the Corona crisis slump, but will not reach the pre-crisis level of over 6 million vehicles. With an estimated volume of about 4.5 million vehicles, it will be the second strongest segment in 2030 European production and the most important segment in the production of vehicles with internal combustion engines.
- Production of the lower premium D segment is expected by Inovev to recover after the slump in the Corona crisis, but will not reach the pre-crisis level of over 2 million vehicles.
- Inovev expects production in the upper premium class E segment to recover somewhat after the sharp downturn in the Corona crisis, but to remain at a level of around 900,000 in the future.
- As the luxury segment F as well as sports cars is a small but stable niche market, Inovev does not expect any major changes.
- According to Inovev's expectations, production of light commercial vehicles will increase slightly before production starts to decline again from 1.8 to 1.5 million vehicles from 2027. The internal combustion engine will remain the most important drive in this segment.
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Chinese OEMs invest in Thailand
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Chinese OEMs invest in Thailand
- Until now, the market and production of automobiles in Southeast Asia has been firmly in the hands of Japanese manufacturers. Thailand's announcements that it will only allow sales of all-electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2035 and offer customers strong incentives in the form of subsidies and tax benefits opens the door for Chinese manufacturers who already have experience in the category and with models attractive to the Asian market.
- Great Wall was the first to respond, planning battery production for its Rayong plant starting in 2023. In turn, the group was able to lower its purchase prices with the subsidies, so the Ora Good Cat now costs only the equivalent of €20.175. BEV production there is expected to grow from 80,000 to 120,000 vehicles annually. SAIC (owner of MG) is planning to invest in a battery factory that will start production in 2023. BYD, currently the largest electric vehicle manufacturer in China, does not yet have local production in Thailand, but is panting for BEV and PHEV production in the Rayong region starting in 2024. Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn has also announced investments in Thailand to produce BEVs for other corporations. Foxconn has partnered with Thai petroleum company PPT in this effort.
- On the Japanese side, all that is known so far is that Toyota's BEV bZ4x is receiving subsidies. However, there is currently no information on the form and extent of the expansion of local production required for the subsidy. Honda and Nissan produce hybrid vehicles in Thailand, and have not yet made any announcements about switching to BEV production. It remains to be seen whether Chinese manufacturers can seize the opportunity and become the first Southeast Asian country to break Japanese dominance in Thailand.
- Of the European manufacturers, only Daimer/Mecredes in Bangkok and BMW in Rayong are represented with battery production facilities for plug-in hybrid vehicles. It remains to be seen whether they will switch production to receive benefits from the Thai government.
- The fledgling manufacturer VinFast from Vietnam, is unlikely to have the capacity to set up BEV production in Thailand and is more likely to focus on its current search for a BEV production site in Europe. However, it must expect a competitive disadvantage in Thailand, as only manufacturers with local production will receive the subsidies and thus be able to lower prices.
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Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
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Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest production forecasts for passenger cars (PC)+ light utility vehicules (LUV) in Germany are rather pessimistic, as Germany will never again reach the level of 2010-2017, i.e. a volume of 6 million vehicles per year, but only 4 million vehicles per year.
- These forecasts take into account a catch-up from 2023 onwards, after a very poor performance in 2020, 2021 and 2022 due to the Corona crisis (in 2020), the semiconductor crisis (in 2021) and then the consequences of the war in Ukraine (in 2022). German automotive production (PC+LUV) thus fell from 5 million units in 2019 to less than 3.5 million units in 2021 and 2022.
- Other factors worked against German production, such as relocations (which occurred later than in France), the reduction of exports to China (in favor of local production), the difficulty of manufacturers to switch from fossil combustion engines to electric cars and probably to produce fewer but more expensive vehicles. This factor has probably contributed to a decrease in production volume at Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Mercedes. In addition, there is the collapse of the American brands based in Germany (Opel and Ford). Ford, for example, has planned to close its Saarlouis plant in the near future. Symbolizing the end of German supremacy, the Volkswagen Golf has not been the best-selling model in Europe since 2022, and the ID3 is not the most popular electric car in Europe as announced.
- Inovev expects 4 million vehicles to be produced annually in Germany between 2024 and 2030.
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Production forecast France 2023-2030
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Production forecast France 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger car (PC) and light truck (LUV) production in France assumes that production volumes will recover from 2023 onwards. French car production had fallen to a low point in 2022, following extremely poor years in 2020 and 2021 due to the Corona crisis (2020) and the semiconductor crisis (2021). In 2022, these crises are compounded by the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Overall, French automotive production (PCs+LUVs) has fallen from 2.2 million units in 2019 to less than 1.5 million units in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
- The catch-up process, which will take place between 2023 and 2027, depends on the end of the semiconductor crisis and the end of the war in Ukraine. This is Inovev's reference scenario, and France should return to the level of 2 million vehicles produced per year between 2027 and 2030.
- This catch-up will be all the more possible because, on the one hand, Renault has decided to concentrate its production of electric vehicles in France (in the Hauts de France region: Douai and Maubeuge) and, since sales of electric cars will increase sharply (thus meeting the European Commission's request), the Hauts de France region will see a sharp increase in its car production. In addition, Renault has announced that they plan to produce 700,000 vehicles in France by 2030. Finally, Stellantis has decided to put an end to relocations. The future Peugeot 3008 and 5008 will be produced in France, as will the 308, 408 and 508 models.
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Production forecast Italy 2023-2030
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Production forecast Italy 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) in Italy foresees a catch-up process starting in 2023, after the three mediocre years of 2020, 2021 and 2022 due to the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022).
- The catch-up process from 2023 will be reinforced by the expansion of production at Mirafiori for the Fiat 500 e with electric drive, which will gradually replace the Fiat 500 with internal combustion engine produced in Poland. The Melfi site will accommodate new products (100% electric) from 2024. The Cassino site will ramp up production with the expansion of sales of the Alfa Tonale and its derivative, Dodge Hornet.
- The Val di Sangro site has just started production of the Opel Movano (previously manufactured in France by Renault) and will start production of a Toyota derivative of the Opel Movano in 2024.
- However, the Val di Sangro plant will not increase its production volume, as Stellantis' management has decided to manufacture part of its production at the Gliwice plant in Poland, which will be reduced by the production of the Opel Astra from 2022.
- Overall, production volume in Italy is expected to reach 825,000 units in 2026 and 2027, a far cry from the million units reached in 2017. In 2030, this production volume is not expected to exceed 750,000 units, roughly the same level as in 2020 or 2010. The yoyo rhythm is typical of Italy's automotive production.
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