Production forecast Europe 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecasts of passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) production for Europe 29 countries show a catch-up process after the collapse of European production in 2020, 2021 and 2022 as a result of the Brexit in the UK, the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and then the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022).
- PC+LUV production volume decreased from 18.5 million units in 2016 to 18.0 million units in 2018, then to 13.5 million units in 2020, 13.0 million units in 2021, and 11.25 million units in 2022.
- Inovev assumes a gradual rebound in which the effects of the various crises mentioned above are felt less and less. In this reference scenario assumed by Inovev, European production could again exceed the 13 million mark in 2023, the 14 million mark in 2024, and the 15 million mark in 2026. It will remain at this level until 2029. However, it will be far from the 2015-2019 figures (a total volume almost 20% lower than in these previous years).
- This scenario takes into account that customers accept the high prices of European electric vehicles, but also that sales of electric vehicles from China, which are offered at lower prices, increase.
- If a large proportion of customers reject the high price of European electric vehicles and instead switch massively to Chinese vehicles or other means of transport, the volume of car production in Europe could be 10% to 20% lower than the annual production volume forecast by Inovev.
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