Vehicle imports in Europe could increase by 7% between 2022 and 2024
- In 2022, Europe (EU + UK + EFTA) imported nearly 3.1 million light vehicles (passenger and utility vehicles) according to ACEA and Eurostat. The ACEA statistics do not specify whether these are only new vehicles but according to the Inovev analysis, they include new and used vehicles. However, the vast majority of vehicles imported in Europe remain new vehicles. We can therefore estimate that in 2022, around 20% of new vehicles sold in Europe were imported.
- Unsurprisingly, and for several years, Turkey has been the leading vehicle supplier country for Europe as it represents around 20% of European imports. Follows China, which went from 10th rank among importers to 2nd in two years (2021 and 2022). With China, South Korea and Japan, Asia remains the leading region supplier of vehicles imported into Europe (44% of imports).
- What are our forecasts for import growth in Europe in 2023 and 2024? For these forecasts, Inovev systematically establishes 3 scenarios: a low, reference and high scenario. In our reference scenario, we forecast constant growth in imports which could reach a volume of 3.2 million light vehicles in 2023 and 3.3 million in 2024. Imports could therefore increase by +7% between 2022 and 2024.
- This growth scenario is mainly explained by the expected increase in imports of vehicles produced in China by Chinese brands, the vast majority of which being battery electric vehicles (BEV). This increase in imports from China is linked to the expected growth of the BEV market in Europe, as according to our scenario, around 40% of new light vehicles sold in Europe will be BEVs in 2030. This scenario also takes into account a policy of attractive price-product mix from Chinese carmakers (offering of affordable vehicles in B or even A segments) and a proposal from European carmakers always seeking added value rather than volume. However, after 2030, we cannot exclude a drop in imports, which will not necessarily be due to a policy of protection of European industry by the EU (which has more difficulty implementing it than in the USA for example), but by the possibility that Chinese carmakers could set up assembly factories (CKD or SKD) in Europe. The case of BYD is an example with the strong possibility of an assembly plant in Hungary.