The VW Polo may no longer be in the European top 5
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The VW Polo may no longer be in the European top 5
- The Volkswagen group has indicated that it wishes to produce as many Polos as T-Cross at the Spanish site in Pamplona, which means that an average of 175,000 T-Cross and 175,000 Polos could be produced each year in a plant with a maximum production capacity of 350,000 vehicles per year.
- However, the VW Polo sold in Europe is only manufactured in Spain, at the Pamplona site. With a volume of 175,000 VW Polo produced each year in Spain and sold on the European market, this model would no longer appear in the European top 5, as it has done for about ten years now (the Polo was N°3 in 2016, 2017 and 2018).
- The diversification of models puts Volkswagen at risk: indeed , if we look at the Fiat Punto for instance , it was once among the best-selling cars in Europe, and it has gradually disappeared from the market.
- A quantity of 175,000 units sold per year would allow the Polo (and T-Cross) to be around 15th place at best, but rather around 18th place according to Inovev.
- It is true that SUVs account for more than a third of the European market overall, and tend to take customers from sedans, but setting an identical production quota for Polo and T-Cross at the Pamplona site seems a miscalculation. However, there is another possibility: that Volkswagen will find another production site for the Polo. Because it seems doubtful that Polo's sales will suddenly dip from 300,000 units to 175,000 per year.
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Why Porsche transferred the Cayenne from Leipzig to Bratislava
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Why Porsche transferred the Cayenne from Leipzig to Bratislava
- Porsche (a subsidiary of the Volkswagen Group) transferred the production of its top-of-the-range SUV, the Cayenne (E segment) from the German site in Leipzig to the Slovak site in Bratislava last year, when the new generation of the model was launched.
- One may wonder about the reasons for this unexpected transfer. First of all, it should be noted that the Leipzig site has a production capacity of 200,000 vehicles per year and the Bratislava site has a production capacity of 400,000 vehicles per year.
- In recent years, the Leipzig site has been close to saturation, while the Bratislava site was operating at 75% of its capacity in 2018 (compared to 82% in 2017, 80% in 2016 and 77% in 2015) and therefore had unused capacity.
- This situation of overcapacity in Bratislava and under capacity in Leipzig could explain the transfer of Cayenne from Leipzig to Bratislava. This transfer would also have been facilitated by the fact that the Volkswagen Touareg, Audi Q7 and Audi Q8 SUVs share the same MLB platform as the Porsche Cayenne.
- How is the Porsche Cayenne's production volume compared to these three SUVs that share its platform?
- In 2018, 75,000 Porsche Cayenne were produced, compared to 45,000 Touareg, 68,000 Q7 and 17,000 Q8. Despite its top-of-the-range positioning, even compared to a Touareg or a Q7, the Cayenne manages to do better than these two models and the upcoming launch of the coupé version of the Cayenne should further strengthen its position. All these large SUVs together accounted for 205,000 units produced in 2018, compared with 187,000 in 2017.
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Inovev forecasts sales of 100,000 Renault Triber per year in India
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Inovev forecasts sales of 100,000 Renault Triber per year in India
- Renault holds only 2% of the Indian market, which places the French brand in eighth place in this market, behind Suzuki (40%), Tata (16%), Hyundai (13%), Mahindra (11%), Honda (4%), Toyota (3%) and Ford (2%). While the Indian market was growing, Renault's sales fell in 2017 and 2018. To boost its sales, Renault has therefore unveiled a brand new low-cost model for the Indian market, the Triber, which will support the Kwid launched in 2015, both models based on the same Renault-Nissan CMF-A platform. Compared to the Kwid, which can be defined as a four-seat A-segment SUV, the Triber is a seven-seat A-segment SUV. Its bodywork is therefore 31cm longer than the Kwid (3.99m vs. 3.68m) to be able to carry these seven passengers.
- For the Indian market, which is very fond of low-cost models, Renault has opted for a model based on the Kwid, thus reducing costs and offering a model at a competitive price. With this objective, the engine is also taken from the Kwid: it is the 72 hp 1.0 petrol 3-cylinder engine, which is also fitted on Renault Clio and Twingo in Europe. Renault announces that the Triber will be produced from this summer in the same factory as the Kwid in Chennai (India) for the local market and that it is not planned (like the Kwid) for the European market. However, it could be sold in Brazil, ASEAN countries, and North Africa in the medium term. Renault plans to double its sales in India with the Triber. Inovev forecasts a sales volume of 100,000 Triber per year in India.
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Will transfers of production from France to other countries be compensated?
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Will transfers of production from France to other countries be compensated?
- In France, over the period 2019 to 2021, many vehicles will be transferred outside the country to be produced at other production sites in Europe or elsewhere. Will the loss of production of these vehicles be compensated by the arrival of new models? This is the purpose of this analysis.
- Transfers of production from France to other countries are as follows:
• In 2019,
ØPeugeot 2008: transfer from Mulhouse to Vigo (Spain),
ØPeugeot 208: transfer from Poissy to Kenitra (Morocco),
ØOpel Grandland: transfer from Sochaux to Eisenach (Germany),
ØRenault Clio: transfer from Flins to Novo Mesto (Slovenia),
• In 2021, Smart Fortwo: transfer from Hambach to ???? (China).
• These transfers add up to 202,000 units lost in 2019, 405,000 in 2020 and 415,000 in 2021.
- Transfers of production from abroad to France:
• Only the future Opel Mokka will be transferred from Zaragoza (Spain) to Poissy. This transfer brings production of 150,000 units/year from 2020.
- The arrival of new models in France are as follows:
• In 2019,
ØNissan NV 250 (Maubeuge),
• In 2020
ØMercedes EQA on the Hambach site,
ØToyota SUV B (Onnaing),
• In 2021
ØRenault BEV C-Segment (Douai).
• These transfers and arrivals add up to 25,000 units in 2019, 250,000 in 2020 and 300,000 in 2021.
- Taking into account these production transfers and the arrival of new models, the balance is therefore negative at 177,000 units in 2019, 155,000 in 2020 and 115,000 in 2021.
- With these various production transfer movements (arrival in France, transfer from or to France), French production between 2019 and 2021 will remain above 2 million units, i.e. 2.15 million units in 2019, 2.22 million in 2020 and 2.05 million in 2021.
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PSA launches long versions of the Berlingo, Partner and Combo
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PSA launches long versions of the Berlingo, Partner and Combo
- Inspired by the Renault Kangoo with a long wheelbase, the PSA group is launching the Citroën Berlingo XL, Peugeot Partner XL and Opel Combo XL, which are 4.75m long instead of 4.40m for the standard model (+35cm), which allows them to carry more goods. These new models, which are ideally located between the Berlingo, Partner and Combo base (4.40m) and the Jumpy, Expert and Vivaro (4.95m), become a serious alternative to the Citroën C4 Picasso (renamed Space Tourer) whose days are numbered. They are manufactured in the same factory as Citroën's compact MPV, the Vigo site in Spain. According to our information, Citroën's compact MPV will not be replaced as such.
- At Opel, the same phenomenon has already been observed. The Vivaro VP version (renamed Zafira Life) has gradually replaced the compact Zafira minivan, whose days are numbered. This PSA strategy really heralds the end of compact MPVs within the group.
- Among the competitors, the same movement can be observed. Ford recently deleted its C-Max and Grand C-Max, Toyota deleted its Verso, Fiat, Honda, Mazda, Nissan have abandoned the compact MPV market for several years now... The compact MPV market is in complete decline. Only Volkswagen and Renault continue to market their Touran and Scenic, but for how long? As for Dacia Lodgy, its sales remain confidential. For their part, the Premium brands BMW and Mercedes are still offering their compact Active Tourer/Gran Tourer and Class B minivans.
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