The current and future situation of the Turkish automotive industry
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The current and future situation of the Turkish automotive industry
- Turkey has been a backbone of the European automotive industry for decades, as several carmakers have shifted part of their production to the lower-cost country, led by Renault, Fiat, Ford, Hyundai and Toyota. Production volumes in Turkey peaked in 2017 at 1.75 million vehicles produced, compared with 1 million in 2013, but production slumped after 2017 and stabilized at 1.2 million units in 2020, 2021 and 2022, the same level as France. Honda closed its Turkish plant in 2021, and the Stellantis plant in Bursa (formerly Fiat) stopped production of the Doblo model in 2022, now manufactured in Vigo (Spain), and halted production of the Fiorino model, which was not replaced.
- Volkswagen, for its part, halted plans to build a plant in Turkey. Thus, the outlook for the Turkish automotive industry does not seem very optimistic, especially since there have been no announcements so far from Turkey-based carmakers about the start of production of 100% electric models in the country, with the exception of Ford, which plans to introduce electric versions of the Transit (the Ford Transit has been produced in Turkey for many years).
- At Toyota, we are waiting for the launch of the second generation of the CHR (C-segment SUV), still manufactured in Turkey, which will be a non-rechargeable hybrid vehicle (HEV). The salvation of the Turkish automotive industry may come from the start-up of the Gemlik factory, which wants to produce 175,000 100% electric vehicles in 2023 under the new Togg brand (with Turkish capital) and one million per year from 2030. Its first model should leave the plant in the spring of 2023.
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Balance of global sales of xEVs in 9 months 2022
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Balance of global sales of xEVs in 9 months 2022
The market for alternative electric vehicle cars (xEV) continues to grow in the three major world regions of China, Europe and the USA. Recently, Japan, still under the influence of non-rechargeable hybrids (HEV Toyota and Honda), has been shown to have little demand for 100% electric drive (BEV) or plug-in hybrid drive (PHEV) cars.
• BEVs in the first nine months of 2022 cumulative :
China registered 3,350,174 electric cars (BEVs), up 97% from the first nine months of 2021, with a local market share of 19.7%. Europe registered 1,002,720 electric cars (BEVs), an increase of 25% compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 12.1%. In the U.S., 583,245 electric cars (BEVs) were registered, representing a 79% increase over the first nine months of 2021, and a local market share of 5.7%.
China registered 3,350,174 electric cars (BEVs), up 97% from the first nine months of 2021, with a local market share of 19.7%. Europe registered 1,002,720 electric cars (BEVs), an increase of 25% compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 12.1%. In the U.S., 583,245 electric cars (BEVs) were registered, representing a 79% increase over the first nine months of 2021, and a local market share of 5.7%.
• PHEV in the cumulative first 9 months of 2022 :
China registered 984,647 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs), up 170% from the first nine months of 2021, and a local market share of 5.8%. In Europe, 687,887 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) were registered, representing an 11% decrease compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 8.3%. In the U.S., 137,524 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) were registered, representing a 22% increase compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 1.3%.
China registered 984,647 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs), up 170% from the first nine months of 2021, and a local market share of 5.8%. In Europe, 687,887 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) were registered, representing an 11% decrease compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 8.3%. In the U.S., 137,524 plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) were registered, representing a 22% increase compared to the first nine months of 2021 and a local market share of 1.3%.
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The Trinity project from Volkswagen
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The Trinity project from Volkswagen
The Volkswagen brand is currently working hard on the "Trinity" (E-segment) concept project, which brand boss Ralf Brandstätter described in 2021 as a showcase project. The concept, which has similarities to Audi's "Artemis" project, was supposed to be ready for the market in 2026, but the new VW Group CEO Oliver Blume is said to have decided to postpone it until 2030. Trinity stands for three things:
• A new architecture: the 100% electric MEB platform will receive an update and set new standards in terms of range, charging speed and digitalization. It will be used by all of the Group's brands in the future.
• Autonomous driving: Trinity is to achieve Level 2+ and be able to evolve to Level 4. The semiconductors are to be sourced exclusively from US carmaker Qualcomm from 2025. VW thus expects autonomous driving to be possible at Level 4 between 2026 and 2030. The software is being developed by VW's own company Cariad in collaboration with Bosch.
• New approach to production: VW plans to establish the new Trinity manufacturing facility in Wolfsburg as a reference model for intelligent production processes, digitalization and automation. However, VW has not reached an agreement with the owner of the land on which the factory is to be built. VW will therefore have to rethink quickly if the schedule is to be met.
The car, which is expected to go into production in 2026, will be a long-wheelbase sedan about 4.70 meters long, according to current estimates. There is talk of a range of 700 km, the 800-volt charging technology of the Porsche Taycan, and a price tag of €35,000 (for Inovev this price that is hard to reach). With this project, VW aims to reduce production costs while further expanding its "data-based business model”. Looking at the positioning of this project compared to the ID range, the latter will have to adjust its prices downwards.
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The difficulties of the BMW electric plan
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The difficulties of the BMW electric plan
- By 2021, the BMW Group has sold 103,855 electric models (BEVs) and 224,461 plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), representing 13% of their global sales (4% BEV and 9% PHEV). Broken down by model, these are 37,939 iX3, 28,216 i3, 34,851 Mini E and 2,849 iX. The product range will be expanded with the launch of the i4 (offshoot of the 4 Series), i7 (offshoot of the 7 Series) and iX1 (offshoot of the X1 SUV) in 2022. In 2023, an electric Mini Countryman and the i5 (offshoot of the 5 series) are scheduled to appear alongside the already familiar Mini E. It is noticeable that, as with Mercedes, the BEV range is based on that of cars with combustion engines.
- If a target of 100% for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales is set for 2035, as desired by the European Parliament, the BMW Group should succeed in selling 17.5% BEV+PHEV in 2022, 24% in 2023, 30.5% in 2024, 37.0% in 2025, 43.5% in 2026, 50.0% in 2027, etc. by 2035 to reach 100%, assuming a linear growth assumption.
- Based on the results of the first nine months of 2022, BMW will not reach the 350,000 BEV + PHEV sales in 2022 (260,000 sales in nine months), which would represent between 13% and 15% of the carmaker's global sales, far from the required 17.5%, although slightly better than Mercedes.
- BMW, like Mercedes, only offer expensive luxury cars, which will not make their task of selling 100% electric vehicles in 2035 any easier, i.e. between 2 million and 2.5 million vehicles, depending on the size of the European market at that time. For example, the carmaker has planned to produce 160,000 Mini E in 2030, which is half of Mini's current sales. In 2022, the BMW Group has only a 3% share of the global BEV market (compared to 2% for Mercedes).
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The arrival of new Chinese brands in Europe
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The arrival of new Chinese brands in Europe
- In a shrinking European car market (estimated at -10% in 2022), Chinese carmakers are expected to double their sales this year (about 80,000 in 2021 and about 150,000 in 2022). They will achieve this mainly through the consolidation of European brands such as Volvo (Geely) and MG (SAIC) and the introduction of new brands previously unknown in Europe such as Aiways, BYD, JAC, NIO, Great Wall, Hongqi, Seres and Xpeng, most of which specialize in electric cars. Some of them were unveiled at the last Paris Motor Show in October 2022.
- BEV-friendly Norway appears to be a scratch line for these various launches. NIO, for example, is building its first European network of battery swap stations there, and Dongfeng is looking to launch its Voyah brand there. The first Voyah brand model announced is the "Free" large SUV, with styling inspired by the Porsche Cayenne and Maserati Levante. The range was reported to be 860 km and battery capacity 88 KWh.
- Geely has already gained a foothold in Europe, buying up Volvo, Polestar, Lotus and LEVC. Its premium car subsidiary Zeekr may appear next year. In addition, its other mid-range subsidiary Geometry has been announced. The first model is a BEV crossover called Geometry C with a battery capacity between 53 and 70 KWh and a range of 400 to 550 km. In the short term, the BEVs Geometry A (sedan, C-segment), Geometry E (SUV, B-segment), G6 and M6 (extended versions of the A and C models) and the M2 (small car, A-segment) will be launched. Geely will initially focus on Central and Eastern Europe.
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