Segmentation of PHEVs in Europe and China
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Segmentation of PHEVs in Europe and China
- Inovev compared the segmentation of plug-in hybrid cars (PHEV) sold in Europe and China in 2020 and 2021.
- The A-segment of plug-in hybrids (i.e. the segment of the smallest and cheapest cars) is non-existent in China and Europe because no manufacturer offers plug-in hybrids on small models.
- Even the B segment of plug-in hybrids is non-existent in China and it remains very weak in Europe because few manufacturers offer this type of engine in this segment, except Renault on its Captur, Jeep on its Renegade and BMW on its Mini Countryman.
- The C segment of plug-in hybrids is important in China (29% of PHEV sales in 2021 compared to 23% in 2020) and very important in Europe (50% of PHEV sales in 2021 compared to 36% in 2020) because the offer there is very abundant.
- The D segment of plug-in hybrids is predominant in China (59% of PHEV sales in 2021 and in 2020) and important in Europe (28% of PHEV sales in 2021 compared to 37% in 2020) but in sharp decline. There was a gradual transfer of part of the D-segment supply to the C-segment.
- The E segment of plug-in hybrids is relatively small (16% of PHEV sales in Europe in 2021 and 11% in China) but it is larger than the E segment of BEVs, which demonstrates that PHEV motorization is more concentrated on the top of the range than the BEV engine. The combination of the D-E segments thus represents 70% of PHEV sales in China in 2021 and 44% in Europe, while they only represent 44% of BEV sales in China in 2021 and 29% in Europe.
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European market in 2030: What realistic scenarios?
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European market in 2030: What realistic scenarios?
- 2030 is the year of all objectives for light vehicle manufacturers and for the authorities, through CO2 objectives. Almost all car manufacturers have announced their plans to meet the CO2 targets set by the European Commission. These objectives will also be updated by the end of the first half of 2022. In anticipation of the new objectives, some manufacturers have already announced their ambitions to switch to the production of 100% electric vehicles in 2030, such as Renault or Ford, while others remain for the moment on BEV + PHEV mix objectives, like the brands of the VW group. But are these objectives realistic and will the European market be ready by 2030 to respond favorably to this future new offer of electric vehicles?
- To answer these questions, Inovev has constructed several scenarios to determine the mix of new vehicles sold in Europe in 2030. These scenarios take into account the forces driving the electrification of the offer but also the obstacles to be lifted to enable the market to respond favorably to this future supply of vehicles. These strengths and brakes are well known today and are detailed in the following pages.
- In parallel with these scenarios, Inovev has also calculated two scenarios relating to the mix of vehicles necessary to meet the CO2 objectives of 2030. These are purely supply-related calculations and therefore do not take demand into account. of the market. This calculation makes it possible to establish the bases of comparison with the three other Inovev scenarios.
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European and Chinese automotive market comparison (PC+LCV)
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European and Chinese automotive market comparison (PC+LCV)
The Chinese car market took over the European car market in 2012. Since then, the volume gap between the two markets has continued to grow. In 2021, nearly 10 million registrations separate the two markets, and this gap should continue to grow over the next few years.
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Automotive market forecasts in Europe (PC+LCV)
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Automotive market forecasts in Europe (PC+LCV)
Inovev forecasts three possible scenarios regarding the development of the European automotive market (PC+LCV) up to 2030. The high scenario (17.2 million units) takes into account strong customer acceptance for the purchase of electric vehicles linked to a drastic drop in the price of these vehicles and a major development of infrastructure. The low scenario (13.2 million units) takes into account lower customer acceptance for the purchase of electric vehicles whose high prices would be considered too high in relation to the services provided. The reference scenario (14.5 million units) is the median scenario between the two trends mentioned above. In this context, the demand for BEV-PHEV should not exceed 5 million units in 2030 according to Inovev, i.e. 35% of the European automotive market.
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China automotive market forecast (PC+LCV)
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China automotive market forecast (PC+LCV)
Inovev forecasts a scenario of continuous increase in car registrations in China from 2021 to 2030. From a volume of 22.2 million units recorded in 2020 and 23.5 million in 2021, the Chinese market should gradually reach 28 million units in 2030, an average growth of 0.5 million per year for nine years. Total BEV+PHEV sales should grow even more strongly to reach a volume of 12.5 million units compared to 1.3 million in 2020 and 3.3 million in 2021. The sales volume of BEV+PHEV should represent 45% of the Chinese car market in 2030.
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