The European car market grew by 4.5% in the first half of 2024
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The European car market grew by 4.5% in the first half of 2024
- The European automobile market (30 countries = EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) for passenger cars increased by 4.5% in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023. This is a slowdown in growth because this market had grown by 13.7% in 2023 compared to 2022. And we are still far from the figures reached in 2019, since the gap between the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2019 is more than one million fewer passenger cars.
- If the market trend is maintained until the end of the year, we will reach a volume of 13.4 million passenger cars compared to 15.8 million in 2019 and 15.6 million in 2018. But this will already be better than the 12.8 million passenger cars reached in 2023, the 11.3 million reached in 2022, the 11.8 million in 2021 or the 12 million reached in 2020.
- But according to Inovev, it is not certain that what was observed in the first half of 2024 will continue in the second half. This market is indeed suffering from an upmarket move because the price of cars has increased significantly and small, inexpensive cars have gradually disappeared one after the other. In addition, the arrival of battery electric vehicles has resulted in the arrival of expensive cars at a time when the purchasing power of Europeans is stagnating.
- In this context, the Volkswagen group remains the market leader with 25.6% of market share ahead of Stellantis (16.6%) and Renault (9.8%). Next come the Hyundai-Kia groups (8.2%), Toyota (7.6%), BMW (6.8%), Mercedes (5%) and Ford (3.3%), which is becoming a second rank carmaker. It should be noted that all Japanese carmakers represent 14.5% of the European market, far ahead of Korean (8.2%) and Chinese (2.8%) carmakers.
Fisker stops automobile production
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Fisker stops automobile production
- After accumulating increasing financial difficulties which culminated in its bankruptcy in June 2024, the Californian company Fisker announced the end of production of its battery electric Ocean model manufactured at Magna Steyr in Graz in Austria. This is the second time that Fisker has gone bankrupt, the first dating from 2013 and leading to the end of the battery electric Karma.
- The causes of Fisker's second bankruptcy are multiple, but as for the first bankruptcy, we can argue that sales of the Ocean model did not meet the objectives, especially since this model seemed more expensive than the competing models (Tesla, Volkswagen, Chinese brands), while the electric market itself is stagnating in Europe. Additionally, the Ocean's software suffered frequent crashes, which could render the car unusable.
- Despite this, Fisker sold a total of 8,805 Ocean models worldwide between 2022 and 2024 with production reaching 10,142 vehicles. Many orders have been canceled and the 1,337 unsold models will be sold off so that the company can repay part of its creditors. The price of a Fisker Ocean started last year at 43,000 euros, reaching 58,500 euros for the best-selling version and 71,000 euros for the most expensive version. Currently, Ocean models are offered at half price to help liquidate inventory and recover cash.
- Despite its current difficulties, it is not impossible to think that the Fisker brand could rise a third time from its ashes in the more or less near future, undoubtedly in a different form.
EPA engine forecasts for the USA
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EPA engine forecasts for the USA
- The EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), which is the American Environmental Protection Agency, independent of the American government but controlled by the House of Representatives, has delivered its forecasts of the different engines concerning the sales of light vehicles in the United States , a category that includes sedans, SUVs, minivans, vans and pick-ups.
- The EPA's forcasts seem very optimistic regarding electrification, as the Agency predicts that battery electric vehicles (BEV) will go from 7.7% of the US market in 2023 to 26% in 2027, i.e. -say that their market share would have to increase by 4.5% each year for four years. However, this market share only increased by 2% between 2022 and 2023. This would require a strong acceleration in BEV sales between 2023 and 2027. However, in 2024, we are far from achieving such growth. In the first half, we will barely reach 8% of the market...
- For plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), the EPA forecasts a market share of 6% in 2027 while it has not reached 2% in 2023. For full-hybrid vehicles (FHEV), the EPA forecasts a decline in sales, with a market share of 4% in 2027 compared to 7.6% in 2023. This share should fall to 3% in 2032.
- Finally, the EPA predicts a constant and rapid decline in thermal vehicles, whose market share would drop from 83% in 2023 to 43% in 2030 and 29% in 2032. According to this scenario, there would be no more sales of thermal vehicles in the USA between 2038 and 2040.
Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year in Europe of the new Audi A5
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Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year in Europe of the new Audi A5
- Audi (Premium subsidiary of the Volkswagen group) has unveiled its new D-segment sedan, the Audi A5 which replaces the old Audi A4 and Audi A5. Indeed, odd numbers at Audi are now intended for models with thermal or hybrid engines, while even numbers are now intended for models with battery electric engines. The new Audi A5, which is based on a new platform named PPC, is therefore a model with a thermal or hybrid engine.
- The new Audi A5 is not currently planned in a coupe or convertible version, like the old A5, but an estate is marketed (which is new under the A5 name) to succeed the old Audi A4 estate.
- Note that from an aesthetic point of view, the line of the Audi A5 is refined and abandons the three-box style of the old Audi A4 (body with exposed trunk) to adopt the hatchback two-body style of the old Audi A5. The Audi A5 sedan measures 4.83 m long, 1.86 m wide and 1.46 m high while the station wagon, which has the same dimensions, is 2 centimeters higher (1.48 m).
- The new Audi A5 features 2.0 TFSI (150 hp or 204 hp), 3.0 V6 (367 hp) MHEV 48V and 2.0 TDI (204 hp) MHEV 48V diesel engines. The battery electric version will be reserved for the future Audi A4 scheduled for 2026.
- The new Audi A5 which competes with the BMW 3 Series and Mercedes C Class will attempt to relaunch a range which only represents 150,000 units in Europe in 2023 compared to 300,000 in 2018 and even 400,000 in 2008. This decline is explained in particular by the transfer of part of the customer base to Audi SUVs. Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year of the new Audi A5 until 2030.
Production of the Volkswagen Up was stopped at the end of 2023
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Production of the Volkswagen Up was stopped at the end of 2023
- The Volkswagen Up which succeeded in 2011 to the old Volkswagen Lupo (produced in Europe) and Volkswagen Fox (imported from Brazil) was a small A-segment sedan available in three or five doors, and manufactured in Slovakia (Bratislava). Its production was definitively stopped in November 2023. First available with a thermal engine, it was then available in a battery electric version from 2016, but its high price did not helps its distribution. In total, a volume of 1,215,179 units was produced on the Bratislava site (Slovakia) in twelve years according to Inovev, an average of 100,000 units per year, not counting the several tens of thousands of units manufactured in Brazil for the local market. The battery electric versions represented less than 10% of the total volume over 12 years (but up to 25% for 2023 alone).
- The success of this "entry-level" car was ephemeral because from 2013, its sales began to decline and this decline has practically not stopped since that date, undoubtedly because there was no demand for such a model or that the carmaker was reluctant to sell such a model (because margins were too low).
- The Volkswagen Up will, however, have a replacement, since Volkswagen plans to launch a battery electric A-segment car around 2026-2027. This vehicle could have been designed in cooperation with Renault but will ultimately be designed with the help of a Chinese carmaker. Renault has made a similar decision regarding its future Twingo, another battery electric A-segment car, since it should be designed with a Chinese partner. Chinese industry could gradually become the prime contractor for entry-level battery electric European models.
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