- The Italian car market declined by almost 50% after its sales peak in 2007. From a level close to 1.4 million vehicles in 2013 (against 2.7 million in 2007), in 2014 the Italian market is finally experiencing a reboot (Inovev forecasts a 5% increase in 2014 ). We will therefor remain far below the levels of 2007, and even below the levels of 2008 to 2010, at the time the market exceeded 2 million units each year.

- Following this growth, and taking into account of the economic outlook in Italy for 2015 (growth of 1.1% according to the IMF and the European Commission), the Italian automotive market could grow by 6.5% next year.

- However, growth forecasts may vary if the government introduces a new "scrappage scheme”. Indeed, the Italian government (prompted by the National Automobile Dealers Association) is considering tax incentives for individuals and company fleets. The duration and extent of these incentives will therefore automatically affect the market growth in 2015.

- Italy is one of Europe's main importing countries: 86% of vehicles sold in Italy are imported from abroad in 2014, almost as much as in Britain.

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- The UK car market had declined significantly between 2007 and 2011, following the financial crisis. Which is why, the continued growth of this market recorded since 2012 (10% in 2013 and 10% in 2014), can be considered as a simple catch up, since the expected levels in 2014 (2.7 million units) will be close those of 2007, no more no less.

- The growth of the automobile market should certainly be lower in 2015 (2.4% according to Inovev), but there will be no decrease as one might have imagined last year. Indeed, there is currently no signs of such a scenario. Moreover growth forecasts for the United Kingdom (+2.7% in 2015) do not indicate any short term slowdown for this economy mainly based on loans.

- In this context, the sales volume of PC +LUVs is expected to exceed 2.7 million units, making it the second largest in Europe behind Germany. Let us recall that in the UK, only a small proportion of PC are purchased by individuals.

- The UK is the country that imports the most vehicles in the top five European markets: in 2014, 88% of vehicles sold in the UK were imported from abroad.

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

- The European car market (29 countries) has lost 23% of its volume from 2007 to 2013, and this decline was extended for another six years after that. In 2014, for the first time since 2007, the European market finally seems to be picking up (+6% over the first 8 months of 2014).

- In 2015, the euro zone should experience a gradual growth in its economy (+1.5% according to the European Commission and the IMF), which will induce  an increase in consumer spending and a recovery in business investments.

- In this context and considering the automotive supply expected in this period Inovev tables on a reboot and a moderate growth in the European market between 2014 and 2015, of around 3%.

- Expected levels are still far far from those of 2005 to 2008 (17 to 18 million vehicles per year) but 15 million new vehicles sold in 2015 is a likely scenario (it is expected to reach 14.5 million units in 2014) .

- In the longer term, beyond economic factors, social factors must also be taken into account and may deeply impact the market : lower purchase rate among 1st time buyers , slower vehicle renewal rates and stricter vehicle restrictions in major cities, followed by the increase of car sharing and carpooling, development of public and alternative transport, declining demographics in some countries, etc …

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