German exports to China have fallen since 2019
- Unlike France, Germany has been massively exporting automobiles to China since 2010, with a volume of exports having exceeded 200,000 units per year from this year.
- After 2010, German exports to China increased to 250,000 units per year in 2011, 2014 and 2016 and then reached 265,000 units in 2017, before increasing to 325,000 units in 2018 which marked the peak of exports.
- After 2018, the trend reversed and the volume of German exports fell to less than 300,000 units from 2020 and then to less than 250,000 units in 2023. This turnaround is mainly explained by the fact that German cars which were previously exported to China are now produced on the Chinese soil for local demand (more than 4 million in 2023). In addition, Chinese customers are increasingly moving towards Chinese brand cars and are gradually losing interest in imported foreign cars, especially with the development of the BEV market.
- According to Inovev, German exports to China will continue to decline over the coming years because there are no factors predicting a change of Chinese customers regarding their purchases.
- Regarding Chinese automobile exports to Germany, they have fluctuated relatively since 2005. After a peak of 93,000 units in 2007, they gradually fell to 22,000 units in 2013 before rising to 57,500 units in 2017. It is especially since 2021 that they have been growing steadily: 56,000 units in 2021, 71,000 in 2022 and 82,000 in 2023. According to Inovev, these exports from China to Germany will continue to grow over the coming years.