Chinese carmakers now represent 60% of the Chinese market
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Chinese carmakers now represent 60% of the Chinese market
- Chinese car carmakers continue to progress in their home market at the expense of foreign carmakers. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, they represented 60% of the Chinese market compared to 57% at the end of 2023, 51% at the end of 2022, 45% at the end of 2021 and 40%. % at the end of 2020.
- At the end of March 2024, the situation in the Chinese automobile market is very clear: The Volkswagen group is still the leader but it is closely followed by the Chinese BYD and three other Chinese carmakers take the next three places (Geely, Chery, Changan). The growth of Geely and Chery is spectacular. Geely thus moves from fifth to third place and Chery moves from seventh to fourth place. The former number 2 in the Chinese market, GM Group, gradually fell to seventh place behind Toyota and ahead of Honda. The Chinese Great Wall moved from fourteenth to ninth place.
- In conclusion, Chinese carmakers are taking significant shares formerly occupied by foreign carmakers. This is a radical change from the Chinese customers who are buying more and more Chinese products. Apart from Tesla, foreign carmakers have no chance of stopping this “tsunami”. But the future of Tesla is not 100% guaranteed.
- On the graph here below, we see that most of the sales growth in the first quarter of 2024 came from Chinese carmakers, with the entire Chinese passenger car market having increased by 9.7% during this period.
JLR may produce BEVs based on a Chery platform
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JLR may produce BEVs based on a Chery platform
- The JLR group (formerly Jaguar Land-Rover), a subsidiary of the Indian Tata Motors, could produce in the future battery electricvehicles using a platform from the Chinese carmaker Chery, and would thus become the first luxury car carmaker to adopt a Chery platform. It would be a platform of the luxury brand Exeed (multi-segment) belonging to the Chery group.
- Jaguar and Land-Rover already produce cars in a Chinese factory in Chery and it is therefore quite natural that the British group turned to this carmaker to optimize its investments in electric engines. Remember that JLR wants to become a carmaker that will only produce battery electric vehicles in 2030 and that there are only six years left to complete this transformation.
- Obtaining an external platform would make it possible to accelerate the launches of various battery electric vehicles as well as the testing phases. In addition, the choice of a Chery platform would make it easier to adapt the industrialization phase in a factory owned by Chery and JLR at 50% each.
- This strategy, however, raises various questions regarding the positioning of the JLR group's brands. Indeed, Jaguar intends to only produce E and F segment models in the future. Will the Chery Exeed platform be able to meet this expectation? In addition, the platform for the future Jaguar GT 4-door already exists, so why not using this platform on other future models of the brand? Or would the Chery Exeed platform only be used for Land Rover models?
Italian automobile production is returning to its lowest 60s period
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Italian automobile production is returning to its lowest 60s period
- Italian automobile production was one of the largest in Europe. Born at the beginning of the 20th century, it grew significantly from 1950 to 1973, going from 100,000 to 1,800,000 passenger cars produced in twenty-three years, thereby creating the second European automobile carmaker (Fiat) behind the German Volkswagen. The Fiat Mirafiori factory was then operating at full capacity, with Fiat producing the majority of its automobiles on this plant. Among the most produced cars in this factory are the Fiat 500, Fiat 600, Fiat 850, Fiat 1100, Fiat 1300, Fiat 1500, Fiat 124, Fiat 125, Fiat 127, Fiat 128, Fiat 131 and Fiat 132. Alongside the giant Fiat, Alfa-Romeo, Lancia and Autobianchi completed the offer of the Italian automobile industry.
- The country's production volume began to decline between 1973 and 1985, falling from 1,800,000 to 1,400,000 units. After 1985, the production volume increased again, from 1,400,000 to 2,000,000 units in 1989.
- After this date, the volume of production of passenger cars in Italy truly collapsed, falling to 500,000 in 2023. The explanation of this plunge is due on one hand to the partial relocation of the Fiat production in Poland and Serbia, and on the other hand the decrease in sales of Fiat (the discontinuation of the Punto being undoubtedly one of the most important factors) but also the sales decrease of Alfa-Romeo, Lancia and Autobianchi (brand which eventually disappeared). Sergio Marchionne (CEO of Fiat-Chrysler) even planned to stop Alfa-Romeo and Lancia.
- Today, Stellantis (through the Fiat brand alone) has become practically the only automobile producer in Italy, and as a result, the future of the Italian automobile industry depends solely on Stellantis' willingness to continue producing in Italy or not.
Tesla has a production capacity of 2.35 million vehicles in 2024
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Tesla has a production capacity of 2.35 million vehicles in 2024
- Despite the drop in its global sales during the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023 (-8.5% including -3.7% in China, -11.5% in the United States, -9.8% in Europe ), Tesla believes in a revival of its sales volumes in 2024, in particular thanks to the recent facelifted version of its Model 3 and the prices reduction on all of its existing models (Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X).
- In 2023, Tesla will produce 1.85 million electric vehicles compared to 1.37 million in 2022, 930 000 in 2021 and 500 000 in 2020. At the current rate, the Californian carmaker would produce 1.7 million electric vehicles in 2024 while its production capacities increased from 2 million to 2.35 million units per year between 2023 and 2024, distributed as follows: 950,000 in Shanghai (China), 650,000 in Fremont (California-USA), 375,000 in Berlin (Germany) and 375,000 in Austin (Texas-USA).
- The Model 2, which was supposed to be launched in 2025 to expand the carmaker's range in the lower segments and attract new customers thanks to a price between 25,000 and 35,000 euros, will surely be postponed to a later date. By eliminating 10% of its workforce, Tesla must review its strategy and its ambitions, within a global BEV market which seems to be slowing down and in which new players are appearing, mainly Chinese.
- Regarding utility vehicles, Tesla has indicated that it wants to sell 125,000 Cybertrucks per year and 50,000 Semi trucks per year, vehicles which will begin to be produced in 2024. The factory planned in Mexico (probably for the Model 2), near Monterrey, is expected to be built in 2024-2025.
Volkswagen is the most impacted by the decreasing BEV market in Europe
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Volkswagen is the most impacted by the decreasing BEV market in Europe
- In a European BEV market falling by 11% in March 2024 compared to March 2023 (-3% for the overall market including all engine types) and increased by only 3.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2023 (+5 % for the overall market ), which brands have been most impacted by the BEV slowdown at the start of the year?
- In the first quarter of 2024, we observe that 18 brands are facing sales decline in Europe (30 countries = EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway). The most impacted brand is Mini (-71%), due to the transition between the old Mini and the new Mini, but other brands such as Porsche, DS or Dacia, saw their sales drop by more than 45%. For Dacia, the transition between the old Spring and the new Spring seems problematic. For its part, VW lost its place as the second largest BEV carmaker in Europe due to a 36% drop in sales in the first quarter. Tesla retains its place as the leading BEV carmaker in Europe but loses 10% of its sales in the first quarter of 2024. Audi, Renault, Opel, Fiat have seen also their BEV sales decline.
- Which carmakers managed to increase their BEV sales in Europe in the first quarter of 2024? Jeep and Honda are among them but with very small quantities, also several Chinese carmakers like BYD, Xpeng, Leapmotor, DR (Chery), Ora (Great Wall), DFSK (Seres), JAC, but with very small quantities. The proof is that these carmakers together sell only half of what MG sells... The progress of Lucid, Lexus, Subaru and Toyota should also be put into perspective given the very low sales. On the other hand, BMW and Volvo are progressing and displaying relatively large quantities: these two brands take 2nd and 3rd place in the BEV sales ranking, behind Tesla and ahead of Volkswagen.
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