Who will be the battery cells suppliers in Europe in 2030?
- In 2022 in Europe, the number of battery cells producers for passenger cars (PCs) is still very limited, with 4 carmakers in 3 countries.
The largest battery producer in Europe is currently LG CHEM, whose production in Poland is expected to reach 65 gWh in 2022. Next come Samsung SD (30 gWh) in second position and SK Innovations (17.5 gWh) in third position, which both produce in Hungary. Envision AESC (1.9 gWh) is fourth with its production located in Great Britain. By analyzing the announcements of producers, however, the situation should change in 2030. Envision AESC could become the largest producer of cells for passenger cars with capacities at 99 gWh, followed by ACC and Northvolt. New factories are under construction or planned, in particular in Germany, which could become the largest producing country in Europe with in particular the projects of ACC (Kaiserslaurten), VW (Salzgitter), CATL (Erfurt), SVOLT (Überherm /Saarlouis) or Varta (Ellwangen). Note that CATL's recent announcement of a second plant in Hungary has not been taken into account, waiting for more precise information.
The largest battery producer in Europe is currently LG CHEM, whose production in Poland is expected to reach 65 gWh in 2022. Next come Samsung SD (30 gWh) in second position and SK Innovations (17.5 gWh) in third position, which both produce in Hungary. Envision AESC (1.9 gWh) is fourth with its production located in Great Britain. By analyzing the announcements of producers, however, the situation should change in 2030. Envision AESC could become the largest producer of cells for passenger cars with capacities at 99 gWh, followed by ACC and Northvolt. New factories are under construction or planned, in particular in Germany, which could become the largest producing country in Europe with in particular the projects of ACC (Kaiserslaurten), VW (Salzgitter), CATL (Erfurt), SVOLT (Überherm /Saarlouis) or Varta (Ellwangen). Note that CATL's recent announcement of a second plant in Hungary has not been taken into account, waiting for more precise information.
- However, we must be careful with these announcements since some projects may evolve. For example, the project for a Farasis factory in Bitterfeld-Wolfen has been cancelled. Similarly, Tesla's Berlin factory project could also be abandoned in favor of a factory in the USA, to take advantage of the Biden administration's future plan which would promote local production of BEVs and batteries. However at this stage nothing has been confirmed.
- In general, the announcements of battery production capacities in Europe by producers by 2030 raise questions. Indeed, according to Inovev's forecasts, the demand for battery cells for BEVs and PHEVs should be around 350 gWh while the announced capacities are around 665 gWh (minimum scenario). We would find ourselves in this case with overcapacities of almost 50%. What will we do with this excess production capacity? Export them? Assign them to other applications? Reduce them?
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